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Contrary to ESPN reporting, the Patriots have not run off with the Lombardi Trophy for their historic regular season.  That's not it-- but it's still up for grabs. 

The Giants, Bucs, Redskins, Seahawks, Titans, Chargers, Jaguars and Steelers may not appear to have a long playoff shelf life against the distinguished credentials of the bye week juggernauts but dont dismiss them yet.  The last two Super Bowl champions were NFL Wild Cards.  The Cowboys offense has been in disarray since Tony Romo and Simpson went public, T.O's penchant for injuring himself just before the playoffs and Marvin Harrison's mystery ailment in addition to the absence of the NFL's highest paid pass rusher, Dwight Freeney for the Colts complicates things.

Meanwhile, Brett Favre's inclination to improve and pass the football with a blindfold on into triple coverage occasionally backfires.  Then, there's also the possibility of Ryan Grant coming back to reality, comes to terms with his role on a world stage and vanishing into the ether.

The Patriots appeared invincible during the regular season but one glaring statistical impedimant by Tom Brady diminishes their odds as the NFL's passing yardage leader has never gone on to win the Super Bowl in the same season.  If the Pats are going to defy the principles of history, they will have one final hurdle that conventional football philosophy has established.

 

The Redskins playoff run has given me an eery deja vu sensation as Joe Gibbs' football teams have recently taken on the role of the anti-Coughlin Giants by routinely finishing the regular season surging instead of struggling.   Joe Gibbs' prior playoff run came in 2005 when the 5-6 'Skins won their final six games to clinch the NFC' final playoff position.

This season, the Redskins entered Week 14 at 5-7 in the midst of a 4 game losing streak and three days removed from the emotional final goodbye to fallen teammate and defensive star Sean Taylor.  Since that day, the Skins have found their rhythm by going undefeated and winning convincingly over the Giants, Vikings, Cowboys and Bears.  Not surprisingly, the streak began after Jason Campbell's injury forced the Redskins to shake the dust off Todd Collins.

The Redskins recent whiff of success in December has been a welcome change from the stench November 2007 will leave in the memories of Washingtonians.  Last season, safety Bob Sanders' presence in the lineup bolstered up the Colts rush defense however, the question remains whether the Skins will be able to ride the wave of momentum from Sean Taylor's presence in the players' memory into January.

Overall, this team embodies the virtues of Joe Gibbs' vintage  80's and early 90's  teams.  His decision to continue starting career backup Todd Collins' was a no-brainer considering 2 of his 3 Super Bowl titles came with previously unheralded signal caller Doug Williams and perennial backup, Mark Rypien under center.  Instead, the Redskins under Gibbs achieved success in three Super Bowl victories through a series of rentals under center, an impenetrable offensive line and an aggressive defense.

In my first blog, I commented how the Redskins offense was stagnant and resembled a dry mosaic and that the team would not win a championship-- this season.  Somehow Todd  Collins has changed that by  playing mistake free and rediscovering Santana Moss.

In the Redskins secondary former Seattle Seahawk, Shawn Springs who spent six years with the franchise after getting drafted 3rd overall in 1997 and was once the first cornerback in NFL history to lead his team in sacks and interceptions will be dealt the task of covering either Deion Branch or Bobby Engram.

Offensively, the Seahawks have failed to address the deart of talent at the wideout position that has prevented their offense from being among the NFL's upper tier.  This is the same void that led the team to acquiring Jerry Rice in a rare 2004 mid-season trade and subsequently snatching holdout Deion Branch from the Patriots before the 2006 season.  Branch is an adequate receiver, however, the 5 foot 9 wideout hardly strikes fear into the gameplans of defensive coordinators and would probably be no higher than third or fourth on the Patriots depth chart today.

In recent seasons, the Seahawks have lost their most productive pass catchers such as Darrell Jackson, Jerramy Stevens, Itula Mili, Joe Jurevicius and Koren Robinson without restocking the cupboard but have managed to make due with complementary pieces.

In 2007, 34 year old veteran receiver Bobby Engram emerged as the Seahawks best threat in the passing offense recording 94 receptions for 1,100 yards and 6 touchdowns.
Even without a Pro Bowl caliber receiver or tightend, the Seahawks were the league's 8th ranked passing offense, however, the dim spot has been the dwindling productivity from running back Shaun Alexander.  This team has reached a crossroads with Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck both aging at an exponential rate.

Despite another Pro Bowl invitation, the most troubling spot has been the balding on Matt Hasselbeck's cranium, so it's either time for hair restoration or begin grooming a replacement in Seattle before his inevitable decline begins.  It's become evident that the key to Vinny Testaverde or any quarterback's longevity is endless hair supply. 

I implore you to name a single NFL quarterback who has ever thrived completely bald. Don't reply Terry Bradshaw either because, a Hall of Famer he may be, Bradshaw may have been benched after a few seasons with 212 career touchdowns and 210 interceptions had the Steel Curtain defense not led them to a four Super Bowls. 

As long as he had the cornrolls, through all the injuries, Donovan McNabb's stature in Philadelphia remained transcendent and now with his head fully shaved, trade rumors are abound. Even Dan Marino retains his trademark curls, Testaverde's arm hair requires a hairnet and Brett Favre's silver mane could use Walt Frazier's 'Just For Men' but it's hanging in there.  Tom Brady, beware the comb-over...

Since briefly shattering the NFL's single season touchdown record, winning the NFL MVP and receiving a generous 8 year $62 million contract which made him the highest paid running back in league history at the ripe age of 29, Alexander's declivitous  downswing has been seemingly instantaneous.   In the last 2 seasons, Alexander has rushed for 3.5 yards per carry and a combined 1,612 yards. 

Alexnder's 5.6 yards per carry in a victory over the Ravens in Week 16 was the only game this season and the third time in the last two seasons he had topped 3.9 ypc. With just two 100 yard performances in 2006 and 2007 respectively, it appears he is, and never again will be a feared running back in the NFL.

Washington 23, Seattle 20 

 

 

(Seriously, though one of them should consider growing a mustache to distinguish themselves.)  I'm grateful Tiki Barber is retired because the possibility of Ronde tackling Tiki, creating another black hole anomaly in the universe and stranding transcontinental jets in a time paradox off the South Pacific frightens me.

Eli Manning's aerial performance at Gilette Stadium in Week 17 reinvigorated the Giants hope in their quarterback, however, I'm hesitant to place ample stock in Saturday night's game because the Bucs defense is an entirely different beast.  At some point Eli Manning regressed into an insecure Rex Grossman with a better offensive unit.  Against their two opponents prior to the Patriots, Manning completed a dismal 25 of 67 pass attempts for 295 yards, 1 touchdown and two interceptions. Giants fans have to worry about how the erratic, and turnover prone Eli Manning will fare without Jeremy Shockey against Tampa Bay's suffocating secondary, which allowed the league's fewest total passing yards. 

Bucs fans should be concerned about their team's 1-3 record since Week 14, including a 2 game losing streak heading into the playoffs and the state of their quarterback Jeff Garcia, who played 7 quarters in the final 6 weeks of the season.

In a table chart displayed during Monday Night Football, Eli Manning attempts the second highest percentage of his passes out of play-action than any quarterback in the league behind Tarvaris Jackson.  If the Bucs can control the Giants ragtag running backs on early downs, they can cancel out the play action's effectiveness by eliminating optional run-pass situations.  Forcing Manning to air it out will inevitably result in a bevy of turnovers.  In the regular season, New York had a negative 9 in turnover margin-- in sharp contrast to the Bucs plus 9 margin.

Defensively, the game will come down to how effectively, the sack happy Giants can pressure Jeff Garcia.  Garcia's improvisational skills usually allow him to extend plays in the pocket and results in big yardage plays. 

The Giants lead the NFL in overall team sacks and should pressure Garcia with defensive ends and converted linebackers Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, Mathias Kiwanuka and Kiwana Mitchell in particular to nullify Garcia.
Given Garcia's rash of injuries, the 37 year old quarterback spending the afternoon on his back does not bode well for the Bucs or his long term health.

The power blue Charger's red carpet includes a litany of Pro Bowl caliber players from linebackers Shaun Phillips, Shawne Merriman, tightend Antonio Gates, defensive backs Quentin Jammers and Antonio Cromartie, defensive tackle Luis Castillo, left tackle Marcus McNeil, left guard Kris Dielman, center Nick Hardwick, return specialist Darren Sproles, kicker Nate Kaeding(who has choked under pressure from time to time) fullback Lorenzo Neal who haqs blocked for a 1,000 yard back in 12 seasons including but not limited to LaDainian Tomlinson.

One position where the Chargers aren't churning out Pro Bowlers has been at wideout.  Somehow, without a clear cut #1 receiver in the offense this decade, the Chargers have maximized the talents of a 27 year old with the pedigree of Hall of Famer, who did not even play college football.  For the 4th consecutive season, Antonio Gates was the main vertical threat for the Chargers high octane offense. 

Despite, a mid-season acquisition of Chris Chambers from the Dolphins, the receiving corps remains average at best. 

To put it in perspective, second year safety, Antonio Cromartie who emerged as a game changing defensive force this season scored as many touchdowns as any Chargers receiver except for Chambers who had four. 

The 23 year old Antonio Cromartie left an indelible mark on this season and made a strong case for the NFL Defensive Player of The Year award by making 44 tackles, recording an NFL high 10 interceptions an assortment of ultra atletic highlight plays.  In Week 8, Cromartie somehow evaded a crowd of defenders to take a Matt Schaub interception to the house. A week later Cromartie stamped his name permanently into the hollowed NFL record books by returning a missed FG attempt 109 yardsand 2 weeks later marked his national arrival on Sunday Night Football against the Indianapolis Colts.

In a herculean performance, Cromartie picked off Colts quarterback Peyton Manning on three occasions including an otherworldly, one handed circus catch with his body nearly parallel to the turf.  Since his rookie season in 2006, the Chargers are 10-0 when Cromartie intercepts a pass.

The Charger's who possessed one of the NFL's best turnovers aren't likely to lose the football or the turnover battle.  As if record setting running back LaDainian Tomlinson's achievements could'nt get any better, Tomlinson lead the league in rushing en route to becoming the first player since Barry Sanders in 1994 to finish a season with 300 or more touches and zero fumbles


The Titans who bring a slow, methodical offense to Southern California has only thrown 9 passing touchdowns and can't afford to fall behind early because of Vince Young's glaring inexperience.  In the regular season Young was highly turnover prone tossing twice as many interceptions(17) as touchdowns(9).
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The Titans' defense will be stingy against the run with Albert Haynesworth clogging the middle, therefore, the Chargers should gameplan to avoid Haynesworth by using more perimeter runs for Turner and Tomlinson to attack the Titans' undersized ends. 

In their Week 14 matchup, keyed by Albert Haynesworth's domination inside Kyle Vanden Bosch responded with three sacks of Philip Rivers, LenDale White went all Dance, Dance Revolution, mimicking Merriman's Lights Out celebration during a touchdown   and provided constant harassment off the corner, however, the regular season meeting was a 23-17 overtime victory by the Charger.  The winning touchdown was a handoff bounced to the outside and sprint to the endzone by Tomlinson, thus steering himself clear of the Titans impervious defensive line. 

UPSET: Tennessee 27, San Diego 24...  "They may have had a litany of Pro Bowlers, MVP's and Defensive sack artists-- but they didn't have Vince Young" It's not USC but the aura of Vince Young won't let me pick against him.  Kickers will decide this matchup.  Either Rob Bironas will nail an impossible 50+ yarder through the uprights or or Nate Kaeding will end his Chargers career with a miss.

 

 

The Jags celebrated rookie offensive coordinator, Dirk Koettner who was hired following his dismissal after a semi-successful stint at Arizona State is a microcosm of a theory I've stated before and many NFL insiders have thought for a while. Collegiate coaches can succeed in the NFL but only after adjusting as a coordinator, focusing on their strengths and discovering if they belong in the professional game.  Assistants don’t have to deal as much with the personalities, the offense, defenses, play calling

 
In next week's rematch the Steelers will be shorthanded offensively without the services of All-Pro running back Willie Parker.  Defensively, the Steelers will need to bring the dogs against the best offense in the Jacksonville era, which set franchise records for points(411), touchdowns(50) and touchdown passes(28). 

The top billing in this matchup goes to quarterbacks Ben Roethlisberger and David Gerrard, who both hail from small conference schools but have taken alternate routes to success.  Roethlisberger progressed undetered into the Steelers' lineup, Garrard was temporarily held up by a former Marshall(Thundering Herd).

Garrard was an obscure 4th round selection, whom the Jaguars buried on their depth chart before spending the next five seasons seeing sporadic action in relief of Byron Leftwich, in particular.

In his first season as a starter, Garrard achieved second-lowest interception percentage in league history among quarterbacks with at least 300 attempts in a season. His three interceptions in 325 attempts (.0092) challenged the mark Kansas City's Steve DeBerg set when he finished the 1990 season with four interceptions in 444 attempts (.0090). He's got a higher passer rating than Peyton Manning, completed a higher percentage of his passes than Matt Hasselbeck, averaged more yards per completion than Brett Favre and his passer rating of 102.2 is third in the NFL as well as fourth highest ever by a quarterback who's never started more than 10 games in any previous season. 
 

In sharp contrast, Roethlisberger was tabbed as the Steelers franchise quarterback after being draftes 5th overall by Pittsburgh in 2004.  For all the acclaim bestowed upon Roethlisberger for his scrambling ability, his propensity for holding the ball until his Cialis wears off has made him a prime target for sack hungry defenders. Conversely, Big Ben usually can't stay erect behind the line of scrimmage past 4 plays and after 4 punishing hours, a physician is required.

The production of tailbacks Maurice Jones Drew and Fred Taylor make for a compelling sub-plot.  Maurice Jones-Drew is the young, exciting fantasy football stud but Fred Taylor, a 10,000 yard career rusher, remains the Jaguars jilted workhorse back and has 381 yards rushing in his last two games in Pittsburgh.  Despite, a higher 2007 and career yards per carry average than LaDainian Tomlinson, Taylor began the season as the only running back among the top 48 career rushers without an invitation to the Pro Bowl.  Together, Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew have given the Jags, the best 1-2 running back combo in football.



-- D.J. Dunson