One Short of Four of a Kind | The Sports World According to Koss

Boy would I love to have the Cubs' Starting Rotation as a poker hand. Right now you'd be holding Three Aces, which is a pretty strong hand last time I checked. Jason Marquis is 5-1 with a 1.70 ERA, followed up by Rich Hill at 4-1 with a 1.73 ERA and then rounded out by Ted Lilly who is 2-2 with a 2.78 ERA. The glaring problem is that of the three aces we hold in our hand, noticeably absent is Carlos Zambrano.

Carlos Zambrano, after guaranteeing a Cy Young Season, has come out of the gate 3-3 with an ERA close to 6. He has over 3 times as many walks as Ted Lilly, and one less walk than Hill and Marquis combined. Although his strike out numbers are still high, the walks mean he is lacking in control.

Not that there has been much help from the fifth starter, and the bullpen other than Wuertz, Cotts and Dempster has been poor as well, but the Cubs should still be playing well better than .500 Baseball. It's just upsetting to see these three pitching out of their mind, and then the player who is supposed to be the leader and centerpiece of the staff not getting the job done on a regular basis. Now I know Carlos is a slow starter traditionally, but he needs to settle down and get to work soon or he is going to cost the Cubs more than he already has.

Maybe the pressure of a contract year is getting to him. Is he trying to over pitch? Is he trying to do too much to get the job done? I don't know, but what I do know is he needs to calm down and get back to pitching like the Big Z of the last 2 or 3 years. With that dominant fastball and "I don't care attitude" of I'm coming at you like it or not.

Now I'm not ready to push the panic button just yet, but I believe the numbers on the other three aces are going to average out towards their career numbers eventually. So if Carlos doesn't get his act together and pick up the pieces, the Cubs are in for the 99th consecutive long summer, without much to show in the fall.

Quote of the Day:

“Just take the ball and throw it where you want to. Throw strikes. Home plate don't move.”

--Satchell Page

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May 10, 2007 10:53 PM ET

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Isn't 'Rich Hill' a perfect name for a pitcher?

OK - peripheral numbers and career norms, people.

Rich Hill only had 120 innings coming into 2007. But his WHIP is off the charts at 0.91. He's not getting hit, he's not walking people, he's striking people out, and he's not giving up home runs. Looks like he may be for real.

Ted Lilly - also an amazing WHIP at 0.97. Even more strikeouts than Hill. Also not walking anyone. Also not giving up any homers. Having a career year at age 31. So far, paying unexpected early dividends on his 4-year, $40 million contract. Here's the thing - Lilly has never shown CLOSE to this control before - his career K/BB is 2.16, and this year's is **6.00**. That HAS to regress some, and soon. Should end the year with an ERA of around 4.00.

Jason Marquis - if he continues to pitch this well, I'll **** proverbial hat. He's not striking out enough batters to be this effective. He's not giving up base hits, but without strikeouts, then statistically, that's largely due to luck (as lame as that may sound, it's mathematically true!). He's walking slightly less men than average, and hasn't given up the gopherballs he has in the past. He's been amazing so far, but he is a huge, red, flashing light on the dashboard. I'm telling you, he cannot continue this for long. ERA should climb to at least 3.75 by year's end - which is still pretty decent overall.

With three pitchers THIS hot, the Cubs should have won several more games than they have.

Carlos Zambrano - has done all the things the others haven't. His walk rate is still horrendous. 10 homers given up in 46 innings. 74 baserunners in those innings, for a 1.60 WHIP. His 5.83 ERA is a huge career anomaly, but he's 'earned' every bit of it so far. Larry Rothschild is working with him on his arm slot, so we'll see if he reverts to form.

What an odd, odd mix of stats for these guys. I'm sure sabermetricians all over are scratching their heads at this one ...