Blogs From The Zoo
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As promised - okay, I didn't promise - there are two new charts starting this week labeled "Adjusted SOS". The adjustment is basically backing out every team's record from their respective opponent wins/losses. For example, Green Bay's weak Strength of Schedule ranking is partially due to their undefeated record; the adjusted chart takes their undefeated record out of the equation.

November 30, 2011  09:36 PM ET

Nice blog (Un), I always like seeing these SOS charts. Happy to see the adjusted charts make an appearance this week.

November 30, 2011  09:45 PM ET

Pretty interesting (Un). While the Raiders adjusted week 1-12 rank is not much different, the adjusted entire schedule changed pretty significantly.

Even with your original formula, the difference between last week and this week had quite a difference (for the Raiders - I didn't compare any other teams).

This is really, really cool to me. Love numbers.

November 30, 2011  10:43 PM ET

This is really cool, especially the adjusted graphs.

December 1, 2011  02:14 AM ET

I like it more and more each time

<go ahead and play with this comment>

Comment #5 has been removed
December 1, 2011  08:35 AM ET
QUOTE(#3):

This is really cool, especially the adjusted graphs.

Agreed.....

December 1, 2011  02:20 PM ET

Is the adjusted SOS taking out the games the team listed played against their opponent?

December 2, 2011  12:15 PM ET

First off, love the SOS charts...every year I try to find these around this time and they simply don't exist. This is awesome, thank you!

Regarding the new Adjusted charts, trying to understand how you arrived at the final counts. Given divisional play (play a team two times), I would have expected the Adjusted Games Played counts to not equal 110 games played for each team since some teams have played a divisional opponent twice already. For example, the Browns have played Cinci twice which means that their opponents total games played should be less than 110. If I'm looking at it right, I think the number should be 108 for the total count of games played by the browns opponents with an opponent record of 47-61 (.43519).

Can you explain how you arrived at the adjusted games total? Possibly I'm misunderstanding how you calculated the totals.

Thanks again for all your hard work!

December 2, 2011  07:20 PM ET
QUOTE(#8):

First off, love the SOS charts...every year I try to find these around this time and they simply don't exist. This is awesome, thank you!Regarding the new Adjusted charts, trying to understand how you arrived at the final counts. Given divisional play (play a team two times), I would have expected the Adjusted Games Played counts to not equal 110 games played for each team since some teams have played a divisional opponent twice already. For example, the Browns have played Cinci twice which means that their opponents total games played should be less than 110. If I'm looking at it right, I think the number should be 108 for the total count of games played by the browns opponents with an opponent record of 47-61 (.43519).Can you explain how you arrived at the adjusted games total? Possibly I'm misunderstanding how you calculated the totals.Thanks again for all your hard work!

As you said, there's really not a lot of Strength of Schedule charts out there, especially mid-season. They seem to be easier to find at the beginning of the year and end of the year.

From the SOS lists I've seen available, the total games played (opponent wins & opponent losses combined) at season's end always add up to 256. Which would indicate that they are including all sixteen games, and not cutting out the 2nd divisional matchup per team.

So I've been keeping with that formula and including every game on the schedule. In the Browns case, I would be including opponent wins and opponents losses twice for Cincinnati, Baltimore and Pittsburgh, because the Browns will play against each of those teams twice this year.

For the "Adjusted SOS - Games Played (Week 1 through Week 12)" chart, where every team's total games played added up to 110, I used the following formula:

Opponent wins (56) - Browns losses (7) = 49
Opponent losses (65) - Browns wins (4) = 61

The "adjustment" is really just kind of like saying seven of those opponent wins were against Cleveland; four of those opponent losses were against Cleveland.

It's kind of a way to weed out the extreme cases, such as Indianapolis. Because we could look at the Colts regular SOS and claim that they're inflating the strength of their schedule by losing every week. The adjusted SOS is just taking their own record out of the equation.

 
December 3, 2011  10:53 PM ET
QUOTE(#9):

As you said, there's really not a lot of Strength of Schedule charts out there, especially mid-season. They seem to be easier to find at the beginning of the year and end of the year.From the SOS lists I've seen available, the total games played (opponent wins & opponent losses combined) at season's end always add up to 256. Which would indicate that they are including all sixteen games, and not cutting out the 2nd divisional matchup per team.So I've been keeping with that formula and including every game on the schedule. In the Browns case, I would be including opponent wins and opponents losses twice for Cincinnati, Baltimore and Pittsburgh, because the Browns will play against each of those teams twice this year.For the "Adjusted SOS - Games Played (Week 1 through Week 12)" chart, where every team's total games played added up to 110, I used the following formula:Opponent wins (56) - Browns losses (7) = 49Opponent losses (65) - Browns wins (4) = 61The "adjustment" is really just kind of like saying seven of those opponent wins were against Cleveland; four of those opponent losses were against Cleveland.It's kind of a way to weed out the extreme cases, such as Indianapolis. Because we could look at the Colts regular SOS and claim that they're inflating the strength of their schedule by losing every week. The adjusted SOS is just taking their own record out of the equation.

I see how you arrived at the numbers, thanks for the explanation. I agree that SOS's should include all games played (except of course for situations like the adjusted #'s where you are explicitly taking out games). For the adjusted SOS, I took a slightly different approach than you did, although really there is no wrong or right way to do this since it's all about creative analysis anyway. In actuality, having multiple perspectives gives us fans even more to banter about!

When I looked at adjusted SOS, I used the following method:

- Each team has played 11 games thus far
- Each opponent that the team has played has played 11 games thus far
- For each opponent of the team, I added up their wins, loses and ties to arrive at their record. For this calculation, I did not include the games in which the opponent played the team. If the team played the opponent twice, I included their W, L & T twice (again, not including the games against the team)
- I then added up the W, L & T of all the opponent's games to arrive at the final adjusted opponent SOS. This method will result in a total number of opponents games less than 110 if the team has played their opponent more than once so far Again, it's just another way to look at the #'s but the result is reflective of the teams SOS not including any of the games that they played.

For example, in Cleveland's case the breakdown for games played thru week 12 would be:

Cincinnati : 11 games played - 2 games vs Browns = 9 games total with record of 5-4-0
Indy: 11 - 1 = 10 (0 - 10 - 0)
Miami: 11 - 1 = 10 (3 - 7 - 0)
Tenn: 11 - 1 = 10 (5 - 5 - 0)
Oak: 11 - 1 = 10 (6 - 4 - 0)
Sea: 11 - 1 = 10 (4 - 6 - 0)
SF: 11 - 1 = 10 (8 - 2 - 0)
Hou: 11 - 1 = 10 (7 - 3 - 0)
STL: 11 - 1 = 10 (1 - 9 - 0)
Jax: 11 - 1 = 10 (3 - 7 - 0)
Cinci: 11 - 2 = 9 (5 - 4 - 0)

Total: 108 games, 47 wins, 61 loses

For the entire season, you would add in (includes games completed thru week 12):

Balt: 11 - 0 = 11 (8 - 3 - 0)
Pitt: 11 - 0 = 11 (8 - 3 - 0)
Arz: 11 - 0 = 11 (4 - 7 - 0)
Balt: 11 - 0 = 11 (8 - 3 - 0)
Pitt: 11 - 0 = 11 (8 - 3 - 0)

Total: 163 games, 83 wins, 80 loses

Again, no right or wrong way to look at this, the more perspectives the better.

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