What about Kyle?

QUOTE(#2):

Originally posted 08:59 AM ET  12.07 by JKINDELRAY

What about Kyle?

see line 1: Not much to discuss these days other than beating up on those kids from Las Vegas, and I am admitting to tiring of that.

Interesting list Pond. I will agree with most of it.

I am not 100% sure about Khane getting more wins than his HMS teammates, even with your modest expectations for how many each of those drivers will win.

Johnson will have something to prove after being whipped for the Cup this year, so it will be interesting to see where he is in his head. He could either be the smooth driver we have seen from his rookie year all the way up to 2010, or he could be the Denny Hamlin of 2012. I know CrizzlyFattams has made comments about things not sounds good on the radio of the #48 at several points this year, so maybe the JJ/CK magic is gone.

I think we will see strange things from the tires again this year. Last year a lot of guys got messes up by tire strategy, one of the factors that held back JJ in my opinion. I remember Good Ol' DW being surprised every time the 2-tire strategy beat the 4-tire, because "that stuff just doesn't happen".

I look for more fuel mileage/GWC finishes. Cars are not wrecking quite like they used to, meaning teams have less of a chance to make changes and become competitive, which means pit strategy will become even more important. To make up for the boring races NASCAR will begin finding more debris on the track with 5 or less laps to go to tighten up the field for that dramatic finish.

QUOTE(#4):

Originally posted 09:49 AM ET  12.07 by Raistwalker

Interesting list Pond. I will agree with most of it. I am not 100% sure about Khane getting more wins than his HMS teammates, even with your modest expectations for how many each of those drivers will win. Johnson will have something to prove after being whipped for the Cup this year, so it will be interesting to see where he is in his head. He could either be the smooth driver we have seen from his rookie year all the way up to 2010, or he could be the Denny Hamlin of 2012. I know CrizzlyFattams has made comments about things not sounds good on the radio of the #48 at several points this year, so maybe the JJ/CK magic is gone.I think we will see strange things from the tires again this year. Last year a lot of guys got messes up by tire strategy, one of the factors that held back JJ in my opinion. I remember Good Ol' DW being surprised every time the 2-tire strategy beat the 4-tire, because "that stuff just doesn't happen".I look for more fuel mileage/GWC finishes. Cars are not wrecking quite like they used to, meaning teams have less of a chance to make changes and become competitive, which means pit strategy will become even more important. To make up for the boring races NASCAR will begin finding more debris on the track with 5 or less laps to go to tighten up the field for that dramatic finish.

I thought about the fuel mileage races a moment, but held back due to the EFI....well, "throttle body" implementation and not being sure if CCs will have enough data to take many risks yet.

As far as Kahne, consider it my one risky predictions.. I think the rest were pretty obvious to many

Another category came to mind: First Time Winners

I will throw Dinger out there, but I dont see any other possibilities unless its one of those wierd, out of pit sequence, then the torrential downpour came, wins.

QUOTE(#3):

Originally posted 09:11 AM ET  12.07 by pondscum

see line 1: Not much to discuss these days other than beating up on those kids from Las Vegas, and I am admitting to tiring of that.

I meant a prediction on how he would do next year.

22GA; agree that Gordon and the #88 won't see Victory lane next year. Methinks Kyle will win 3 races at least. Pondscum; you are spot on with EGR, I was surprised at how McMurray did this year. Kahne is going to have a great year. I never liked Newman and you are right about him. I will wait and see on Danica, she might surprise. Hamlin, with a new C.C. will be a force to be reckoned with.

QUOTE(#8):

Originally posted 10:04 AM ET  12.07 by JKINDELRAY

I meant a prediction on how he would do next year.

oh ok, I will go there.

Gibbs will allow him to run in Nationwide as Toyota pressures him to deliver them a manufacturers title.

Kyle will stay at JGR and behave about the first half of the year. During that time he will win three times.

He will lose a couple of close races mid season, and blow up on someone again. Leapords dont change their spots.

He will make the chase, and falter.

Pretty predictable I guess. Same pattern as previous years.

Brad K and Jr out of the Chase next season. Brad K's performance will be shaken by the changes happening at Penske in the off season. Gambles for wins will put Jr out of Chase, knocked out by wildcards.

Khane and The Dinger in chase. Dinger by the wins wildcard, Khane in top 10 in points. Questionable: Hamlin, Newman, and Kurt Busch. Hamlin and Newman both need to step it up. Kurt's Chase depends on who he ends up with come Daytona.

The media will make a big deal about Trevor Bayne at the plate tracks, but he will have no notable finishes in Cup, but will be a major contender in the Nationwide series.

Late in the season Ricky Senhouse will debut in Cup in revived #6, that will lead to a RotY run in 2013.

Danica will start 10 Cup races, and get more airtime than 90% of the field for the year, and at least one name drop every race. Out of 10 races I see 5 top 20s, and 2 top 10s. On NW side I see at least 1 win. (Sorry Pond)

MRW will begin its speed run toward oblivion. Truex/Napa is already propping up the organization, and that will fall out shortly once contracts are up.

JGR switching to TRD motors will not see an improvement if performance, if anything there will be a loss early.

QUOTE(#10):

Originally posted 10:12 AM ET  12.07 by pondscum

Gibbs will allow him to run in Nationwide as Toyota pressures him to deliver them a manufacturers title.

I look for this to happen later in the year though, Kyle has already been told he can't run Trucks or NW. But pressure for performance from Toyoda in the lower series will case Gibbs to back off on this.

His mental capacity will depend a lot on how others race him. I wouldn't be surprised if some driver decides to poke that bear with a stick a couple of times just to get him to blow a gasket.

Or even the frustration of not running/winning in the lower series cracks him.

QUOTE(#12):

Originally posted 10:26 AM ET  12.07 by Raistwalker

I look for this to happen later in the year though, Kyle has already been told he can't run Trucks or NW. But pressure for performance from Toyoda in the lower series will case Gibbs to back off on this.His mental capacity will depend a lot on how others race him. I wouldn't be surprised if some driver decides to poke that bear with a stick a couple of times just to get him to blow a gasket. Or even the frustration of not running/winning in the lower series cracks him.

oh yeah.. People like harvick will love to poke a badger.

QUOTE(#11):

Originally posted 10:16 AM ET  12.07 by Raistwalker

Brad K and Jr out of the Chase next season. Brad K's performance will be shaken by the changes happening at Penske in the off season. Gambles for wins will put Jr out of Chase, knocked out by wildcards.Khane and The Dinger in chase. Dinger by the wins wildcard, Khane in top 10 in points. Questionable: Hamlin, Newman, and Kurt Busch. Hamlin and Newman both need to step it up. Kurt's Chase depends on who he ends up with come Daytona.The media will make a big deal about Trevor Bayne at the plate tracks, but he will have no notable finishes in Cup, but will be a major contender in the Nationwide series.Late in the season Ricky Senhouse will debut in Cup in revived #6, that will lead to a RotY run in 2013.Danica will start 10 Cup races, and get more airtime than 90% of the field for the year, and at least one name drop every race. Out of 10 races I see 5 top 20s, and 2 top 10s. On NW side I see at least 1 win. (Sorry Pond)MRW will begin its speed run toward oblivion. Truex/Napa is already propping up the organization, and that will fall out shortly once contracts are up.JGR switching to TRD motors will not see an improvement if performance, if anything there will be a loss early.

I hope you are wrong on Brad. he's brash, at times about like another brash kid we discus, but he also seems to understand the concept of RESPECT, and will give-to-get.

It seems he is taking measures to invest in himself and his overall future in NASCAR. I hope he continues to mature.

Now, this isnt a love fest, but I just see a glimmer of a chance he could be the real deal.

QUOTE(#11):

Originally posted 10:16 AM ET  12.07 by Raistwalker

Brad K and Jr out of the Chase next season. Brad K's performance will be shaken by the changes happening at Penske in the off season. Gambles for wins will put Jr out of Chase, knocked out by wildcards.Khane and The Dinger in chase. Dinger by the wins wildcard, Khane in top 10 in points. Questionable: Hamlin, Newman, and Kurt Busch. Hamlin and Newman both need to step it up. Kurt's Chase depends on who he ends up with come Daytona.The media will make a big deal about Trevor Bayne at the plate tracks, but he will have no notable finishes in Cup, but will be a major contender in the Nationwide series.Late in the season Ricky Senhouse will debut in Cup in revived #6, that will lead to a RotY run in 2013.Danica will start 10 Cup races, and get more airtime than 90% of the field for the year, and at least one name drop every race. Out of 10 races I see 5 top 20s, and 2 top 10s. On NW side I see at least 1 win. (Sorry Pond)MRW will begin its speed run toward oblivion. Truex/Napa is already propping up the organization, and that will fall out shortly once contracts are up.JGR switching to TRD motors will not see an improvement if performance, if anything there will be a loss early.

she backed her way into an indy car win, and many races won the war of attrition there by moving up as those in front of her blew up or crashed. no reason to believe that lightning wont strike twice for her.

Since I caved on Kyle, I will also acknowledge the other brother:

Kurt will swallow what remaining pride he has and utilize his Past champion provisionals for someone. He will TRY to find a ride that at least has the intentions of completing the race, not a S&P.

as far as nascar rule changes:

The only one I see happening is Brian and Mike really liked my idea of not letting anyone outside the top 35 even start a race unless they show up on raceday with the assets (tires, pit crew, etc) needed to fulfill the entire scheduled length of the race. if less than 43 complete the obligation, so be it, short field.

QUOTE(#16):

Originally posted 10:57 AM ET  12.07 by pondscum

Since I caved on Kyle, I will also acknowledge the other brother:Kurt will swallow what remaining pride he has and utilize his Past champion provisionals for someone. He will TRY to find a ride that at least has the intentions of completing the race, not a S&P.

Don't like Kurt but he can wheel a car and will land on two feet in 2012. He will end up signing with a decent team. He has realized his actions are wrong and has started therapy. That's a good sign.

QUOTE(#14):

Originally posted 10:49 AM ET  12.07 by pondscum

It seems he is taking measures to invest in himself and his overall future in NASCAR. I hope he continues to mature.

Right, but the shakeup at Penske might come back to bit him. While Brad can drive the wheels off a car that doesn't mean his new teammate will be able to. With the information sharing that is presumably going on between teams the wrong info can really effect both cars.

And yes he had an incredible run especially the second half of the year, but that may have been just a lucky fluke. From Martinsville on in the Chase he wasn't as strong as he was at the beginning, and that momentum will probably carry on to Daytona. Add to that the changes from above it will definitely be a slow start for that group.

His missing the Chase will be more from trying to dig out of the beginning season hole more than anything.

QUOTE(#18):

Originally posted 11:02 AM ET  12.07 by JKINDELRAY

Don't like Kurt but he can wheel a car and will land on two feet in 2012. He will end up signing with a decent team. He has realized his actions are wrong and has started therapy. That's a good sign.

But he started that therapy right around the beginning of the Chase and apparently it didn't help then. i know therapy takes time, but we should have seen some improvement, even if it was just NOT blowing up at Dr. Punch.