Dan TM's Blog
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As many of you know, during the regular season, every week I'd make my "Absurd Predictions" not only for who would win each game, and not only what the score would be, but also who would be the MVP and what their stat line would look like.  Why?  Because I like to do more than the guy next to me, it makes me look good.

So for the Super Bowl, I figure I should do something even bigger - after all, there's only one game to predict anything about.  Might as well go balls-out, it's the last game I get to predict until next season.

We'll start simply, with the final score:  Patriots 39, Giants 24.  I've been wrestling with the outcome for a while, thinking about all the reasons everyone says one thing or another is going to happen.  And while Dr. Z is a bit of a madman, he has one theory that makes a lot of sense to me.  [Paraphrased] If you're thinking the game is going to have a point differential of X, and Vegas lets out a spread of Y, and the difference between X and Y is significant, bet on the other side of the spread from what you originally thought.

Huh?

All right, with real numbers.  Vegas introduced a spread of 14 or something like that, right?  I would have pegged this game initially as Pats by 3.  That's what they won their other three Super Bowls by, and the Giants look pretty good lately.  But because the Pats have such a ridiculously higher-than-expected spread, I have to think they'll beat it. 

This theory is founded on a simple principle.  The people in Vegas know more than I do.  They make bargeloads of money every day.  If I were a genius at making predictions, they'd seek me out and hire me.  As my record indicates, I'm not. 

So, the question is, how do we get there?  I do think that this will be an exciting game.  And here's the part where I go over the top.  I now present to you... The Absurd Drive Blog As Absurdly Predicted By Dan TM the Absurd:

POSS

Start

Start Time

End Time

Plays

Yards

1st Downs

Result

Key Plays

Score

NYG

NYG 26

14:51

10:33

5

15

1

Punt

Manning 8yd pass to Toomer

0-0

NE

NE 15

10:28

3:54

8

85

3

TD

Brady 38yd pass to Welker; Maroney 8yd TD run

7-0

NYG

NYG 35

3:48

14:24

9

61

4

FG

Manning 12yd pass to Burress; Jacobs 9yd run

7-3

NE

NE 23

14:20

13:03

3

1

0

Punt

Tuck tackles Maroney for 2yd loss

7-3

NYG

NYG 39

12:58

11:46

4

61

1

TD

Manning 48yd pass to S.Smith; Jacobs 5yd TD run

7-10

NE

NE 20

11:42

8:35

6

31

2

Punt

Strahan sacks Brady for 8yd loss; Maroney 15yd run

7-10

NYG

NYG 5

8:31

7:23

3

5

0

Punt

Wilfork tackles Jacobs for no gain

7-10

NE

NYG 38

7:20

4:49

5

38

2

TD

Brady 20yd pass to Moss; Brady 16yd TD pass to Watson

14-10

NYG

NYG 22

4:44

4:21

3

9

0

Punt

Samuel breaks up pass intended for Burress

14-10

NE

NE 19

4:17

1:19

7

51

4

INT

Brady 13yd pass to Faulk; Webster 11yd INT return

14-10

NYG

NYG 45

1:19

0:03

4

55

2

TD

Manning 28yd TD pass to Burress; Manning 20yd pass to Bradshaw

14-17

NE

NE 48

14:48

10:35

7

49

3

FG

Brady 16yd pass to Welker, Brady 14yd pass to Welker

17-17

NYG

NYG 20

10:32

10:01

2

4

0

INT

Seau INT, no return

17-17

NE

NYG 28

10:01

8:38

4

12

1

FG

Brady 5yd pass to Faulk

20-17

NYG

NYG 27

8:32

5:14

6

18

1

Punt

Manning 9yd pass to Boss; Vrabel sacks Manning for 4yd loss

20-17

NE

NE 12

5:10

0:13

5

23

1

Punt

Brady 19yd pass to Welker

20-17

NYG

NYG 26

0:08

11:52

8

24

2

Punt

Bradshaw 7yd run; Manning 10yd pass to Toomer

20-17

NE

NE 2

11:47

8:14

7

63

3

FG

Brady 20yd pass to Moss; Maroney 18yd run; Gostkowski 52yd FG

23-17

NYG

NYG 21

8:08

7:43

3

0

0

Punt

Hobbs breaks up pass intended for Toomer

23-17

NE

NE 49

7:40

5:13

4

51

1

TD

Brady 37yd TD pass to Faulk, 2pt conversion failed

29-17

NYG

NYG 34

5:06

4:34

4

66

2

TD

Manning 30yd TD pass to Burress; Manning 25yd pass to S.Smith

29-24

NE

NE 33

4:22

2:58

3

6

0

FG

Hobbs 60yd kick return; Gostkowski 44yd FG

32-24

NYG

NYG 29

2:52

1:11

5

45

2

FumL

Manning 26yd pass to Burress; Seau sacks Manning, forces fumble, returns fumble for TD

39-24

NYG

NYG 31

0:58

0:00

5

31

1

End

Manning 25yd pass to S.Smith

39-24

 

Super Bowl MVP: Junior Seau - 9 tackles, INT, sack, FF, FR, TD 

And that's that, FanNation, my season of predictions has come to an end.  Of course, I'll keep doing recaps of my predictions, and there's always stuff to write about.  I'll have thoughts about the draft, coaching changes, free agency, and so on.  I'm also going to work on developing the NAPOs further, to try and work out the kinks.  So stick around, because I'm going to.

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