Andy Murray still has a tough row to **** (they won't let me type the word "****"!) if he's going to win at Wimbledon, even if Rafael Nadal has been knocked out of his side of the draw.
In fact, he probably has the toughest route to the semi-finals of any of the remaining big four. Murray faces Cilic on Monday, a match he should win handily, but then he faces the winner of the Del Potro-Ferrer battle in the quarterfinal and either of those guys could give him a real run for his money. In fact, my personal opinion is that Murray better hope Del Potro beats Ferrer tomorrow since I don't like the Brit's chances against the speedy Spaniard, Ferrer.
I don't know what to make of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's road to the semis: Mardy Fish seems healthy and is playing with a verve that is new to the American while Brian Baker is the comeback story of the tournament. I don't know much about Phillipp Khoschreiber, Baker's opponent in the round of sixteen, but if Haker makes it to the quarters, he may just have too much momentum, too much confidence and too much game for either Fish or Tsonga to handle.
It's also hard to figure out what Federer's struggles against Julian Bennetteau say about Fed's game right now: do you see it as a negative (the great one is having trouble focusing against lesser opponents)? or as a real positive (he needed to get pushed to regain his focus and now he's back on track to wipe up the grass with players)?
Whatever it means, Federer has only Xavier Malisse and then the winner of the Istomin-Youzhny match seperating him from the semis and I can't see any of those players giving him much trouble, even if his focus isn't good.
Novak Djokovic has a similar path to the semifinals, with only unseeded Victor Troicki and then the winner of the Gasquet-Mayer match standing in his way. Again, I don't see Djoko being threatened here.
So it seems I'm comfortable picking Fed and Djokovic to meet in one semifinal but I'm not so sure about how the other side of the draw will turn out. At this point, I'm going to have to go with Ferrer and Tsonga, since I just can't see Brian Baker's magical run continuing for much longer.
If things work out the way I'm picking, people will be saying the Roger-Novak semi stands as the real championship match but don't believe them. Either Ferrer or Tsonga can, on a good day, handle the big boys and who's to say the final at Wimbledon isn't a good day?