12:25 PM ET  08.03 | (If you dig Mr. Addict's advice and insight in this article, VISIT http://www.fantasyfootballaddict.com/ , and for only $6, order the 2012 Draft Day Spreadsheet, and you'll be using the same draft tool that Mr. Addict uses in all of his drafts!)

Every year we see it. A wide receiver comes out of nowhere to blow up the scene!  Nobody drafts him, and it ends up being a free agency or waiver wire battle just to nab him.  Wouldn't it be nice to take this guy with one of your final draft picks? 

In 2009, he was Sidney Rice with the Vikings (he went from 141 yards in 2008, to 1,312 yards in 2009).

In 2010, he was Brandon Lloyd with the Broncos (he went from 117 yards in 2009, to 1,448 yards in 2010).

In 2011, he was Victor Cruz with the Giants (he went from 0 yards in 2010, to 1,536 yards in 2011).

Notice a pattern here?  It's somebody that isn't on your fantasy radar.  You are not even tempted to draft this guy.  He's not a rookie wide receiver.  He's just simply incognito, and you have to find a way to figure out who he is!!!  Of course, this is a very difficult thing for any of us to figure out.  But that certainly won't stop me from trying!  People will continue to play the lottery by the millions, even though 99.9% of them will never win.  And so here I go again, trying to do the impossible, as I attempt to identify the breakout wide receiver of 2012!

I'm going to try and be a bit more methodical this time around.  For starters, I'm going to analyze the situations that surrounded past breakout WR's.  With Victor Cruz last season, you had a very talented QB in Eli Manning in a pass-heavy offense.  The Giants finished 32nd in rushing yards, with only 1,427.  Eli was 1 of only 3 QB's with 600+ passing attempts, and finished the regular season with darn near 5,000 passing yards (4,933). 

With Brandon Lloyd in 2010, you had a QB who was all about slinging the rock, his name was Kyle Orton (he only played the first 13 games).  In those 13 games, Orton managed almost 500 passing attempts (498).  He had the 3rd highest passing attempts average per game, next to just Peyton Manning and Drew Brees.  The Broncos were pretty poor rushing that year as well, as they finished 26th in rushing yards with just 1,544.

With Sidney Rice in 2009, you had a QB with one of the biggest arms in history, one Brett Favre!  Yes he exceeded 500 passing attempts.  Yes he had the 3rd best completion percentage (behind only Drew Brees and Peyton Manning), while only managing 7 INT's.  Now, the only difference when compared to the last 2 examples is that the Vikings had a pretty good rushing year in 2009, thanks Adrian Peterson's 1,383 yards on the ground.

So what we see here is that you need a gun slinging QB who has a high number of passing attempts. It helps to have a bad rushing game, but it's not a deal-breaker if the rushing game is successful, but it does help if the rushing game doesn't look promising.  So here's what I think I know for sure.  Our 2012 breakout wide receiver is NOT a member of the Bills, Dolphins, Jets, Ravens, Jaguars, Redskins, Vikings, Bucaneers, Cardinals, or 49ers.  The QB's on these teams just don't have the arm that we're looking for, and they're likely not going to have the passing game that will produce the "out-of-nowhere" guy that we want to identify.  So there's 10 teams out of the mix, which leaves us with 22 teams.  Now, let me continue to eliminate more teams from the conversation.

The Packers are out, because we already know these WR's (Jennings, Nelson, Jones, Driver).  So many mouths to feed, it's not enough for Cobb to be our guy.  The Lions are out, because you already know Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, and Titus Young.  The Patriots are out, because not enough love to spread around beyond Welker, Lloyd, Gronk, and Hernandez.  It won't be the Titans, because we all know Britt and Nate Washington, it's not a rookie so it won't be Wright, and I don't see Hasselbeck/Locker having enough fire power to satisfy a breakout Damian Williams after relying on Britt and Washington.  It won't be the Giants, because Nicks and Cruz will eat up most of the targets.  It won't be the Falcons because White and Jones will both eclipse the 1000 yard mark, so no way we see 3 WR's with 1000+ yards on one team.  It won't be the Saints because Colston and Graham will be big, people will likely also draft Moore and Henderson, so they're all on the radar already.

So there's another 7 teams that we've eliminated.  17 down, that gives us 15 teams that could possibly have our breakout Wide Receiver of 2012.  Let's go down the line and see who we can find...

BROWNS- This really would be a miracle, if Weeden somehow studs it up at QB for the Browns in 2012.  People already are keeping tabs on Greg Little, so he'll get drafted.  Massoquai isn't worthy. There's a few deep sleepers here but I think Richardson will do well this year, but I don't see any Browns WR's having a 1000+ yard year. 

BENGALS- We already know AJ Green will get his 1000, and Gresham will get a ton of targets.  Brandon Tate and Mohamed Sanu are currently slated as the #2 and #3 WR's respectively, one of them could make a run at this, but I don't see it.

TEXANS- Texans get a lot of production out of their running backs.  Andre Johnson, if healthy, gets hi 1000+ season.  With 16 games out of Schaub, there's room for a breakout candidate here, because Kevin Walter is a known entity.  Lestar Jean is a long shot to breakout because he's a rookie and it'll take time for him to learn the position.  I'm not buying a Texan breakout WR.
BRONCOS- Peyton Manning is one reason that this could happen in Denver. We already know and love Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker.  A lot of people are saying that they even expect Decker to have the bigger year.  There would have to be an injury to one of those guys for Andre Caldwell or Brandon Stokely to blow our minds!  I don't see it here.

CHIEFS- With Cassel, yeah maybe.  Bowe is a beast, he goes big and goes over 1000.  Breaston as the #2, he gets about 800 yards each year.  Now, Baldwin is an option.  He's on the cusp of being an "under the radar" guy, we know about him, he only got 254 yards in his rookie season, but he did miss the first 5 games of the season.  Baldwin may get 1000+ this year.  NFL.com has him at WR60 currently.  That mean in 12 team leagues, that has him being drafted as a low-end WR5, or high-end WR6 on your squad.  But if your ranked 60th, you're probably getting drafted.  So he's not the guy we're looking for.

RAIDERS- I think it could be a big year for Palmer.  Heyward-Bey and Moore are going to have good years if both stay healthy.  These guys both get drafted, so here we go again with Jacoby Ford. For the last 2 years, we heard about him breaking onto the scene, but last year he only had 279 yards. NFL.com has him ranked above Baldwin by 2 slots, so I'm guessing people may get suckered into drafting him again this year. So it's not him.  If it's somebody on the Raiders, I don't know who he is. Take a look at the depth chart, kids, because I don't see him here.
COWBOYS- in a way, another breakout happened in 2011, but Victor Cruz sort of overshadowed the gem that was Laurent Robinson.  Robinson is gone, so maybe somebody else will pop up while Defenses concentrate on stopping Austin and Bryant.  Right now, the #3 guy is Andre Holmes.  He was a practice squad guy in 2011, and now he apparently is the guy that could be our breakout, since nobody knows who he is.  But it all depends if he beat out Ogletree for playing time.  You'd really have to have a deep bench to go after one of these guys as the breakout, so I'm passing.

EAGLES- why not the Eagles?  I mean, if Michael Vick breaks out the 2010 Vick, we'll be in business!  Maclin and Jackson are the top 2, and that leaves Avant.  But Avant has gone over 500 yards the last 3 years, so he's on the radar, we're just not buying.  I highly doubt he's the guy.  And if they did go out and get a Plaxico Burress, well he'd definitely get drafted, so I don't see our breakout here in Philly.

PANTHERS- Cam Newton and Steve Smith is a big combo platter.  Cam has a big arm, so there's room for more love to go around.  It comes down to Brandon LaFell and David Gettis.  LaFell had 600+ yards so we see him coming. Gettis, we wouldn't see that one coming.  I don't either, so I'm not buying.

VIKINGS- It may not happen just for the fact that we don't know how good Ponder can be.  But if Ponder "can be" a 4000+ yard passer in 2012, then somebody other than Percy Harvin will be helping out.  Enter Jerome Simpson.  Currently not in the top 80, so he should go undrafted UNLESS fantasy jerk-off pundits pump up his stock between now and when you do your draft(s)!!! So for now, I am a buyer on Jerome Simpson, but technically he's not coming out of nowhere.  He did have 725 yards in 2011, and 3 of those were 100 yard games.  So, we know Jerome Simpson, we just currently aren't hyped up on him.  I bet fantasy pundits will pump up his stock soon, so I think he'll get drafted, so he's not the elusive one that I seek.

BEARS- Cutler to Marshall will be a real treat.  Hester will get some action, and so will Knox, Bennett, and rookie Alshon Jeffery.  Hester and Jeffery probably will get drafted.  And some folks may also draft these other 2, Knox and Bennett, because both have had some success in the past.  I don't see a breakout in Chicago.

RAMS- Brian Quick and Danny Amendola will get drafted in most leagues.  Beyond these 2, nobody will likely draft Steve Smith or Chris Givens.  ONE of these 2 MIGHT be our guy.  After all, Steve Smith did have a 1220 yard year in 2009! He only had 124 yards in Philly!  I am keeping tabs on Steve Smith, but wait, what about that Donario Alexander guy??  He's gifted, but he gets injured easily. Smith is the one to watch, but he's a longshot. I'm passing.

SEAHAWKS- People will draft Rice, then Baldwin.  Then POSSIBLY Golden Tate.  Depends on how he looks in the preseason games. IF Matt Flynn wins the starting gig, then I think I'd grab Tate as a project WR6. Some of your other fantasy co-horts may be on his tip as well, so you may even have to grab him earlier than the final round of your draft.

COLTS- Well, Luck is getting rave reviews. He'll have Fleener the TE, along with Collie and Wayne nabbing a ton of targets. Donnie Avery is a possibility, as the #3 WR. He only had 45 yards in 2011, that seems pretty "under the radar" to me. I think if you've got room on your bench, it may be worth a try, but I'm not announting him the next Victor Cruz.


CHARGERS- I do see less INT's for Rivers, so Rivers could get back to being a fantasy monster like he was from 2008-2010. With Jackson gone, we have Meachem as the #1, Floyd as the #2, and Eddie Royal as the #3. But apparently people are taking aim at Royal, he's ranked 53rd right now. But wait, remember Vincent Brown from 2011? He had 1 decent outing, 5 catches for 97 yards and 1 TD. Not bad. If he can beat out Royal, or if there's an injury, there's room for him to breakout. I'm buying into Vincent Brown, as of now he's not ranked in the top 80 WR's, so he will likely go undrafted in many leagues. But I may just grab him as a WR6 to stash away and see what happens!



So there it is, a rational and analytical attempt to identify 2012's version of Victor Cruz!  I don't suspect that anybody will live up to those standards though, and I think we're more likely looking for another Laurent Robinson breakout WR.  Laurent didn't hit 1000 yards (858) in 2011, but he did crush the TD's with 11.  So in my eyes, you have Golden Tate, Donnie Avery, and Vincent Brown to target in the late rounds of your drafts to maybe be that guy.  Stash them away for at least the first 5 weeks or so, in order to give them a chance to be our 2012 breakout Fantasy Football Wide Receiver!  One of these guys will hit 1000 yards and 7 TD's.  Maybe???  We'll find out soon, kids!

If you like Mr. Addict's advice regarding fantasy football drafting, VISIT http://www.fantasyfootballaddict.com/ , and for only $6, order the 2012 Draft Day Spreadsheet, and you'll be using the same draft tool that Mr. Addict uses in all of his drafts!