FanNation - The Republic of Sport

Recently Steven Myers wrote an article concerning Pete Vuckovich's Cy Young winning pitching performance for the 1982 Milwaukee Brewers. Steven was struck by Vuckovich's high WHIP (1.502) and low ERA (3.34). For Steve - and many fans - this raises the issue of clutch performance. Are there some pitchers who have an innate ability to work out of jams, allowing many base runners yet permitting relatively few of them to score?

Well, this question is just the kind of thing that piques my interest. It's also relatively easy to devise a statistical methodology. A simple formula for determining a pitcher's ability to work out of a jam is to divide his WHIP by his ERA. A high WHIP divided by a low ERA will result in a greater product than the same WHIP divided by a higher ERA. It stands to reason that a pitcher who allows the same number of runners but permits fewer of them to score must be the better pitcher with men on base.

Before crunching the numbers, I have a few hypotheses. First, I took for granted that pitchers who allowed home runs would fair poorly by this standard. The more hits in a pitcher's WHIP that are home runs the worse his clutch rating will be. According to WHIP a single counts the same as a home run. We all know, however, that a single may not score a run - but a homer always does.

My next hypothesis was that pitchers who walk more batters would fair better than those who throw strikes. To many fans this will sound surprising - at first. The catch is that WHIP treats walks and hits as similar events - this is a miscalculation. A walk is not as good as a hit, at least not every hit. A walk is only as good as a single with no one on base or a single that moves a runner from first to second. Every other hit is better than a walk. If two pitchers have the same WHIP, the man who allows fewer hits will be more successful in preventing runs.

Finally, we would expect pitchers with higher strikeout totals to do better in the clutch. Except for the double play ball, the strikeout is the pitcher's best weapon. A strikeout creates no opportunity or advantage for the offense: runners normally can't move up a base and the defense doesn't even need to field the ball (usually). A man who can "reach back" for a strikeout has an advantage over the man who can't.

For the most part, these hypotheses proved to be accurate. I began with Pete Vuckovich and determined his career numbers for strikeouts per nine, walks per nine, and home runs per nine. I also divided his WHIP by his ERA to reach a clutch rating (I then multiplied the rating by 9 simply because I like bigger numbers). I chose to use career numbers because the issue of luck was raised in Steve Meyers' article. Maybe Vuckovich got lucky one year - a disproportionate number of his hits and walks occurring with few men on base - but I didn't think he could be lucky for an entire career.

Finally, I did the same for 21 other pitchers who performed in the last twenty years to look for a trend. I chose both power and control pitchers as well as pitchers who had the reputation for surrendering home runs and some others who didn't. I also picked out a few pitchers who had the reputation for being clutch performers. Pete Vuckovich actually rates quite well.

Here are the clutch ratings, which are equal to (WHIP/ERA)*9

PitcherK/9BB/9HR/9ERAWHIPRatingNolan Ryan9.54.70.543.191.2573.52Jose Rijo7.63.20.703.241.2623.51John Tudor4.92.40.783.121.1983.46Pete Vuckovich5.53.40.663.661.3743.38Roger Clemens8.62.90.663.121.1733.38Pedro Martinez10.22.40.722.801.0303.31Greg Maddux6.11.80.623.111.1413.30Orel Hershiser5.82.90.683.481.2613.26Randy Johnson10.83.30.863.221.1643.25Dontrelle Willis6.73.00.833.781.3593.24Anthony Young4.83.30.803.891.3873.21Bret Saberhagen6.01.70.773.341.1413.08Mario Soto7.53.40.893.471.1863.08Johan Santana9.52.50.993.221.0943.06Mike Scott6.42.70.753.541.2013.05Dan Petry4.63.70.944.021.3633.05Jack McDowell6.22.90.823.851.3023.04Jack Morris5.83.30.923.901.2962.99Bob Tewksbury4.01.50.713.921.2922.97Scott Sanderson5.72.21.043.541.2552.94David Wells5.81.91.074.131.2662.76Brad Radke5.41.61.204.221.2602.69Top 11 Average7.33.00.713.331.2373.34Bottom 11 Average6.12.50.923.741.2412.99

I was struck by the diversity of the top 11 performers. It's not often we're able to put Anthony Young on the same list as Randy Johnson. Strikeouts help, but they're not absolutely necessary - they're certainly not as important as I thought they would be. Vuckovich, Young and Tudor rub elbows with Nolan Ryan and Pedro Martinez.

Except for strikeouts, however, there are no surprises. The top 11 pitchers had the same average WHIP as the bottom 11, but the better-rated performers allowed fewer home runs and usually issued more walks. With the exception of Greg Maddux, the very best control artists all found themselves on the bottom half of the list; sometimes it's simply better to walk a man than to throw a strike. Bob Tewksbury proved to be a great example of this: he allowed few walks and few home runs (thank you, Busch Stadium) but still rated poorly. He simply gave up too many hits with men on base.

I would like to increase my sample size to ensure the statistic's accuracy, but since my hypotheses were largely correct I'll trust that I'm at least on the right track with my conclusion. I don't think "clutch" has as much to do with heart as with pitching style and strategy. The best strategy for getting out of a jam is to not give in to the hitter - walking him is always preferable to giving him something good to hit.

By Don Ehrke at www.DugoutCentral.com