FanNation - The Republic of Sport

1. Johann Santana: I've played fantasy baseball for a long time and I don't recall the gap between the number one starter and everybody else ever being this large. Part of that is pure talent. Santana's last four years, from a fantasy standpoint, are as outrageous as they are from a pure baseball view.

YearWinsSOERAWHIP2004202652.610.9212005162382.870.9712006192452.770.9972007152353.331.073

The only thing you could possibly nitpick about these numbers is the win totals, which are clearly the result of the sometimes anemic run support he received in Minnesota. Problem solved. Santana pitching in front of the juggernaut that is the NY Mets' offense is a pleasing proposition to every fantasy GM lucky enough to have him on their roster. Add that on top of the move to the easier league, and the bump he'll get from pitching half of his games in Shea, and Santana is looking at a fantasy year for the ages.

2. Jake Peavy: In the interest of full disclosure I have to admit to having a huge "man crush" on Mr. Peavy. He's been on my roster for the last three years and everybody in my usual league knows full well that I will find a way to have him on my roster every year until his arm falls off. He's a four category stud who happens to pitch in the best pitcher's park in the league. His only flaws are that the Padres' offense also has to play in that park so he earns some brutal no decisions (five ND last year while allowing one run or fewer), and on those rare occasions when he's given a big lead he's a smart enough baseball player to change his approach to "pitch to contact". Needless to say, that's not what fantasy owners want to see.

3. Cole Hamels: The young gun. He's averaged a strikeout an inning in his young career while posting good WHIPs and ERAs despite his ballpark. This year he solidifies his standing and competes for his first Cy Young. At least he does all that assuming he doesn't blow something out. The good news is that even if his rate stats don't keep pace with the top 2, his offensive support should be great and that leads to lots of wins.

4. C.C. Sabathia: The big man from Cleveland leads the AL entries, and the only reason he isn't competitive for the top spot is he pitches in the wrong league. Ok, he also doesn't strikeout quite as many hitters as the other pitchers on our list so far, but he gets extra points for being a workhorse who has gotten a little bit better every year. It's his "walk year", so if you believe in that theory he might even be good enough to draft right behind Santana.

5. Erik Bedard: Bedard put it all together last year and it earned him a trade to a real major league team. Last year the Orioles broke the hearts of many fantasy owners by making the prudent decision to shut him down early following an oblique strain. If they had let him come back and pitch a few games he would have been a trendy Cy Young pick. With the Mariners defense behind him, and the Seattle dampness hanging in the air, he's got a pretty good shot at a sub-3.00 ERA. He'll also benefit from the division switch by seeing the Red Sox and Yankees replaced by the Angels and A's on the schedule.

6. Brandon Webb: Webb continues to find success by making major league hitters pound the ball into the ground. This makes him a perennial contender for the Cy Young award, but robs him of a little fantasy value because his strikeout numbers aren't quite as good as the top tier. Be that as it may, he's strung together three straight excellent fantasy seasons and each one has been a notch better than the last. If he's your number one starter, you're still in good shape.

7. John Smoltz: Smoltz is rejoined in the Braves' rotation this year by his old friend Tom Glavine. I'm sure the first meeting with the Padres, and Greg Maddux, will be a great story. Of the three, Smoltz is the only one who retains significant fantasy value thanks to his continued ability to make hitters swing and miss. It's difficult to know where to rate him simply because of his age and the likelihood that any kind of significant injury could mark the end of his career. Pick him and hold your breath; as long as he keeps walking to the mound every fifth day he'll put up good numbers.

8. Josh Beckett: He was definitely a bargain last year following a poor showing in 2006, but that won't be the case this year. If he replicates his 3.27 ERA/1.141 WHIP then this is about the right place to put him. If last year's return to form was temporary then the phrase "anchor of my staff" may take on a slightly different meaning.

9. Chris Young: As long as the big (6'10″) right hander stays healthy he's going to give you great numbers. Like Peavy, he's helped a great deal by his home park. Also like his rotation-mate, he strikes out a lot of hitters. The big difference between the two is Young averages about 30 innings per year less than Peavy because of various ailments caused by the difficulty in getting his long limbs to repeat his mechanics. I like him better as my number two starter because of the risk, but his top end earns him the ranking.

10. Dan Haren: It occurs to me that there are going to be some hellacious pitchers duels when Arizona and San Diego square off this year. Four of the top ten spots are occupied by pitchers from those two teams. Haren comes over to the weaker league, but the expected dip in his ERA may be wiped out by the ballpark change. I'm less concerned by that than the possibility his win total may take a hit unless the D'Backs can improve their offense or defy the baseball gods for a second consecutive year.

For those who play in single-league games, here are the rankings.

American LeagueNational League1. CC Sabathia1. Johan Santana2. Erik Bedard2. Jake Peavy3. Josh Beckett3. Cole Hamels4. John Lackey4. Brandon Webb5. Scott Kazmir5. John Smoltz6. Justin Verlander6. Chris Young7. Roy Halladay7. Dan Haren8. Jeremy Bonderman8. Carlos Zambrano9. Daisuke Matsuzaka9. Aaron Harang10. Fausto Carmona10. Roy Oswalt

By Steve Caimano of www.DugoutCentral.com