What If Jim Rice Had Been A Ranger? | Mario Soto's Blog

Never one to stop beating a dead horse, I wonder if Jim Rice has an advantage over other more deserving players when it comes to Hall of Fame consideration because he was a member of a high profile ball club - the Boston Red Sox.

Would we even be having the debate about including him in the Hall of Fame had he played elsewhere? Elsewhere, for the purposes of this article, can't be New York. It needs to be somewhere obscure, a real Baseball Siberia. There would be many candidates for this distinction - poor teams in the late 1970s and 1980s - but I'm going to chose Texas, a team that has never won the World Series, boasts little tradition and can't claim a "Ranger Nation."

To begin with, let's see what happens when we take Jim Rice out of Fenway Park. As a right-handed hitter Rice benefited greatly from Fenway. To remove the Fenway Factor from Rice we'll simply double his road totals to reflect what he would have done had he played his home games in a more typical setting. This is what we get for Rice's "new" career statistics versus the actual:

ABH2B3BHRRBIRunsAVGSLGActual8,2252,452373793821,4511,249.298.502Adjusted8,3002,296332703481,2981,136.277.459

Of course, in Texas Jim Rice wouldn't be playing in an average ballpark. Arlington Stadium was a poor hitter's park, so let's reduce his numbers a little bit. We'll reduce his numbers by three percent. That's more than reasonable, isn't it? Taking just another three percent off his totals leaves us with:

ABH2B3BHRRBIRunsAVGSLGAdjusted II8,3002,227322683381,2591,102.270.446

Now we have to consider how often Jim Rice would have been in the spotlight in Texas. As a member of the Red Sox Rice played for first place clubs in 1975, 1986 and 1988. He was, of course, involved in historic races against the Yankees in 1977 and 1978 as well. Back before cable and satellite television, baseball was limited to local broadcasts and the Saturday afternoon Game of the Week. I seem to remember watching the Red Sox play a lot of those Saturday games.

How often did Texas play in the Game of the Week? Hardly ever. You have to be in a pennant race to take center stage. We have to allow, however, that the Rangers would have been a better club with Jim Rice on it. Let's credit the Rangers with five more wins per season. Between 1975-88 the Rangers finished within five games of first three times, finishing exactly five games behind on all three occasions (1979 and 1986 behind California and 1978 behind the Royals). Maybe Rice makes the post season on these occasions, maybe he doesn't. It's a tough call. He does, however, play in far fewer pennant races with Texas than with Boston.

Finally, what about attendance? How many people actually see Jim Rice play if he's a Texas Ranger? In his fourteen years as a regular, Boston finished in the top half of league attendance twelve times (the Red Sox were ninth in 1983 and eighth in 1984). In the same period the Rangers finished in the top half of league attendance twice - finishing fifth in both 1975 and 1976. From 1977 through 1988 the Rangers finished between eighth and twelfth in attendance.

So here's the question. Does a player who bats .270 with 338 home runs, playing on a poor team with little media coverage and low attendance, receive substantial Hall of Fame support? No such player has really existed, but Chili Davis most closely resembles Rice's new numbers in terms of career length, home runs, average and RBIs. If Chili Davis could travel back and play for those Rangers teams under these conditions, does any rational person support his Hall of Fame election? Rice's greatest advantage in being so strongly considered for the Hall was written across the front of his uniform - Boston.

Here is how Chili Davis and our adjusted Jim Rice compare:

ABH2B3BHRRBIRunsAVGSLGRice Adjusted II8,3002,227322683381,2591,102.270.446Chili Davis Actual8,6732,380424303501,3721,240.274.451

By Don Ehrke of www.DugoutCentral.com