Previously, I was working on ideas for the Bears later round picks but as we are going to have wait a while for the compensation picks to be announced I'm decided to put that one on pause for a while.
This is an update on the First Round projected selections that I made about a month ago. Also with this one I'm attempting to extend the picks through the full 32 (31 without New England's Forfeited pick) of the First Round and maybe a quick hit at the Second round if I have time.
Right, Here we go...
Same format as before: Bold means team name, and Underlined means their pick
Miami: In my last attempt at this I picked Glenn Dorsey (DT- LSU) here but I think the Tuna may move his choice one position down the D-line. I believe Chris Long (DE - Virginia) goes here, of course this may get blown out of the water in the after combine results become public but I feel he fits the Miami Scheme better and with more immediate affect than Dorsey and if Miami cannot find a suitor for the First pick in the draft they have to pick for immediate affect as they simply will have less picks to address the huge problems throughout the team. Another reason this would possibly be a considered move would be Parcell's apparent want to trade away Jason Taylor (DE) who really has been one of the most productive players in the NFC not to mention the only real player on their defense except for an aging Zach Thomas (MLB). Long would provide cover for this void with Taylor gone plus the trade would allow the Dolphins gain more draft picks to improve their team, cause lets face, it they need it bad.
St Louis: This now maybe the start of the run at OT as Pace needs to be replaced but with Chris Long (DE- Virginia) now gone the Rams have a difficult decision. Jake Long (OT - Michigan) could be looked at to fill Pace's shoes but the Defense is where they are lacking playmakers in St Louis and Glenn Dorsey (DT- LSU) is exactly that. Also they could look to find a good but not elite OT in the second round.
Oakland: With all the turmoil in the Raiders camp at the moment, who knows who will be Head Coach let alone who they pick here. Kiffin even at the Senior Bowl, it was suggested, showed his dissatisfaction of the situation between Davis and himself by not wearing Raiders outfits even though the rest of the Oakland Raiders Coaching Staff wore their sideline uniforms. Then the whole rumors that Davis wanted Kiffin out because he felt betrayed because Kiffin had shown interest in two college jobs and apparently though of "doing a Petrino" as it shall from this day forth be known, a quitting an NFL team mid season and returning to the college ranks. There is no evidence to say he did this, just hearsay, so who knows who's telling the truth. But seriously Unless Davis, well acts stupid like he does sometimes Kiffin will still be there after turning round a franchise who looked almost as bad as the Dolphins this year into a team that provided resistance in some hard fought games this year. With that settled, who do they pick. They need DT with Sapp retiring and really at the moment, at least, they are relying on their Defense who could really excel next year if key positions are addressed. But can the Head Coach persuade Davis to fill a need when the so-called "Best Player in the Draft" is still available? Darren McFadden (RB- Arkansas) therefore is my pick as I say that if Kiffin is still there he's not going to persuade Davis off McFadden to take Sedrick Ellis (DT- USC) and if Kiffin is gone then the new guy is not going to run this years draft after coming on board so late in proceedings. I say Oakland will have try and find a gem at DT latter in the draft. Before anyone says it, I know Ellis is the right choice, but really just can't see Davis passing up McFadden. (Just heard about Fargas resigning this will not affect this choice)
Atlanta: Finally the Falcons can look towards the future with a young but talented GM from the New England Patriots and what appears to be at worst a stop gap choice at Head Coach who really was the best they could get hold of at the time and who actually wanted the job. So really they need to address may key issues with a demoralized and aging team without any real identity and, at least at the moment, a bad taste in it's mouth from having it's name rubbed in the dirty over the last year or so. Really thought QB was the way forward here but I see them as another team who looks to trade down to gain picks like Miami. That coupled with the fact that the new GM doesn't seam too sold on any of the QB's in the draft as a top 5 pick so I think they actually take Jake Long (OT-Michigan). Seriously now this isn't a great idea unless they can get more picks or really look to FA to hit some of the other team issues but, lets say they can sure up the secondary with either a top safety or corner-back of an Asante Samuels (CB) type but cheaper as Atlanta with the Vick cap problems I don't think will be able to even attempt to sign Samuels so Marcus Trufant out of Seattle if he's not franchised or Drayton Florence out of San Diego. Also if they get Linebacker improvements in depth and age then this starts to look more likely as the need to trade down diminishes.
Kansas: Atlanta just burst Kansas's bubble big time as they take the one player Kansas were begging for. So with Jake Long off the table Kansas are in a dilemma, the best player available is Ellis at DT, but really it's not a position of need and really it would be a reach for the next OT, in my eyes, Ryan Clady (OT- Boise State). So look for Kansas to desperately look to trade down a few spots and get something out of it, maybe a 2nd Round pick to move down to Bengals (looking for Ellis to improve their defense from one of the worst in the league) slot where they can look at addressing their problems on the O-line in the form any of the next big three OT (Clady/Otah/Williams/Baker). Or move to take Rivers OLB- USC (could be another reach) or take the top CB in the draft. But lets say that doesn't happen as they ask for too much or something what now? I say they go QB, they take the best available in their eyes which lets say for the sake of argument still remains Ryan after the combine. (Even though I recon Brohm will be a better player) Matt Ryan (QB - Boston College) is taken with 5th Pick in the draft and adds competition to Croyle and sits on the bench and Learns from Huard.
NY Jets: Jets in my eyes get a steal here as Ellis is still on the board, no he's not the edge rusher they were expecting to be available but I see him being a better option to a weak D- Line group since Abraham left to the Falcons as he would provide consistent pressure from the middle which in turn would improve the DE production as Ellis would draw double teams, and I see him as being a good fit for the 3-4 defense in use at the Jets. OT is another option but I can't see Ellis falling any further in the draft. Sedrick Ellis (DT - USC) is taken 6th overall.
New England: Just off their soul crushing loss in Super bowl 42 the Patriots have only two areas for concern. CB and LB, it just depends on first which area is more of a need for them and which prospect they see as being the most productive. The LB unit needs to get younger, Seau and Bruschi are no spring chickens and we may not even see them back again. Asante Samuel appears to be available to sign a stupidly expensive contract with someone if Nate Clements's deal was anything to go by so it's up to the Patriots to prioritize their slight weaknesses. I feel that someone will trade up and take this pick as the Patriots will be shopping it around simply because they can afford to wait till the late Teens, early twenties in the first round and still get a good player to mold. Maybe Bengals to get Rivers out of USC or New Orleans for the top CB available or even Denver to need help at the LB position and OT position. But lets say they stay at this pick for now. The New England Patriots pick Reggie Smith CB Oklahoma to help fill the void after Asante Samuel (CB) leaving during Free Agency.
Baltimore Ravens: Fresh off yet another coaching overhaul, which seams fairly prolific this season, the Baltimore Ravens have hired John Harbaugh to be their new Head coach. Although the Harbaugh has no Head coaching experience he has created a strong group of coaches in his inner circle by hiring Cam Cameron (Ex- Miami Head Coach) as Off. Coordinator and keeping Rex Ryan on as Def. Coordinator. This is only added to by the hiring of Ex-49ers Off. Coordinator as WR coach and he may look to bring in co-Def. Coordinator of Florida, Greg Mattison who he coached with at Western Michigan, in some capacity. There fore my bet on this one is that he's not going to be happy with the current three QB's. McNair was totally ineffective this season before his season ending injury and Boller isn't a proven starter. Not to mention Troy Smith who realistically really has to have a good off-season to prove to Harbaugh he's the real leader for this offense. All in all this team has potential to do well, maybe not a super bowl but definitely playoffs if they have a consistent, and productive offense that takes advantage of the situations it's defense puts them into. Therefore I believe at the moment they take Brian Brohm (QB - Louisville) and sit him for a year with Boller and Smith fighting it out as the starter next year. In this situation, I see Smith actually pulling it off and Boller being cut/traded from the team next off-season as Smith and Brohm then fight it out for 1st and 2nd on the dept chart. Problem with this choice however is the Baltimore team in recent seasons has trained in the pre-season at least with a mobile QB and if after this next season Smith and Brohm are your choices the team has to decide in what direction it's going in. Mobile and agile or pocket-passing consistency. But really I'd still draft Brohm here as it puts a new face on the new coach's Ravens and there's no guarantee that Harbaugh thinks Smith is his guy when the previous regime drafted him. This could be a late change following the Combine, as we will have a better idea if Baltimore wants to go with Smith/Boller or not. Hence this is why Brohm will be mentioned as a possible choice later in pick during the article. Another idea for Baltimore here is OT where they could have the second best OT available and take Clady out of Boise State. If Harbaugh feels he can win with either Smith or Boller next year he might want wait on taking a franchise QB this year as the Crop is not as strong a class as normal with even the top two prospects having some issues then Clady will be the pick.
Cincinnati: Dear Santa, all the Bengals want this year is a defense, a consistent offense and a happy Chad Johnson, not a lot to ask for. Oh yeah also doesn't help when they are in one of the harder divisions in the AFC with all three rivals in recent years performing to a very high standard.
([Ravens] on the wane in recent years but still have one of the best defenses in football, [Browns] really knocked the division around last year after finally finding QB consistency and a running game, just missing out of the Playoffs this year, [Steelers] 3 years removed from winning a Super Bowl and really in that time only slightly falling in quality but now under Tomlin heading back to playoff caliber team standings.)
Where do you start, the defense has to be the first option but where, DB's are poor, Linebackers are Bad and the D-Line are awful. So my thought if they can't trade up to take Sedrick Ellis earlier in the draft they look to take Vernon Gholston - (DE - Ohio St) as they need to work on the D-Line even more so than before as it was shown so well that a strong front 4 can win you the big game. I would go as far as to say they don't have a strong player in there front 7 let alone their D-line. TE is another option as well as DT but in both cases they would be reaching heavily to get either one of the remaining top candidates in either position. Trading Chad Johnson, although I think is a stupid move but if he wants out what can you do, could either gain them a later 1st round pick or multiple 2nd/3rd round picks to try and meat these needs in this draft rather than sitting on the issues for another year.
New Orleans: After watching David previously of the Colts fall on his arse, figuratively of course, this season the previous year free agent buy hasn't really provided any consistent help. Hence New Orleans will go CB here. They need a playmaker and really need to solidify their pass defense after David sometimes was made to look really out of place in some really big games. So after the Senior Bowl the best CB on the board still I would say is Leodis McKelvin (CB - Troy) would be the pick. I feel as though he has strong competition for this place with D Rodgers-Cromartie (CB - Tennessee State) but at this point I still see McKelvin making the better CB in the pros. Yes, Cromartie had a very productive Senior Bowl game but I would say the McKelvin had the better workout week consistently. But after the combine these guys may switch.
Buffalo: As I wrote in the previous version of this draft I thought if things had fallen right for the Bills this year they could of done their own version of the Browns this year. Through injuries and a complete lack of depth in playmakers and not to mention the QB controversy over who should start this didn't stand a chance of happening. Really, their big players on offense are the concern. The defense is finding their feet and starting to get better but they need help at both OLB and DT. I see this team if it's to be successful it won't be the offense carrying the team it will be a Chicago/Baltimore style Defense strong team. So the choice has to be filling the need at DT/OLB or looking to provide WR and TE depth and playmakers. I feel they may be able attract Shockey from the Giants as the other rival teams for a trade don't need him as much as the Bills do. WR can be addressed later in the draft or even with Berrian ending up here so I see the Bills out of sheer dumb luck landing the best OLB in the draft and picking Keith River- (OLB -USC) with the 11th overall pick.
Denver: With DT, in my opinion, being the greatest area of need for this team they may reach here but with the North Carolina DT, Kentwan Balmer after Pre Combine analysis being the best available DT I still feel he's more of a late 1st round pick rather than 12th overall. So that leaves us with LB and S as the real needs that can be addressed here. As it stands at the moment the remaining LB group I feel don't warrant this high a pick but I feel that Denver could do worse than to pick up Kenney Phillips (S- Miami) as a replacement for Lynch with this pick. However another direction for Denver would be OT which they do need multiple picks of, and if the draft falls like this then only Long from Michigan has gone, so I think Denver take their choice of the top OT left on the board and draft Ryan Clady (OT - Boise State).
Carolina: These guys are counting their lucky stars as one of their major, major needs is addressed by picking up the highest ranked S in the draft and choosing Kenny Phillips (S - Miami) with the 13th overall pick. I almost think this could be a guarantee if he's still on the board having fallen past Denver unless the position next to Chris Harris in the Panther's secondary is addressed in the F.A. market. Although, the possible loss of both FA starting Tackles this off season may be a great priority in the budget so can see the Panthers taking a OT here but it would be difficult to pass up sealing up a secondary which has been weak for a number of seasons previously with the addition of Phillips.
Chicago: Options: OT/QB/S/RB/WR/second S/OG/DT/OLB.
Running through these needs I feel as though this is the priority of the bears draft this year. The talent of players available however may not agree with drafting in this order but all need to be addressed this off-season:
With Chicago's first round pick in the draft I see them doing one of three things.
- Drafting an OT
- Trading down for more picks with at team that wants DE/CB/WR/RB/DT
- Picking Kenny Phillips (S - Miami) if he's still on the board.
In this scenario, Phillips has already gone on the previous pick to Carolina so option 3 is out the window. The option of draft an OT depends on how sold the Bears are on any of the remaining high ranked OT (Williams/ Otah/ Baker/Cherilus).
Williams had great Senior Bowl workouts and really showed good potential at the tackle position at the next level. He's predominately a LT and has the size and feet to excel at the position.
Otah, having only been playing football since his senior year at high school as huge potential and although has the ability to excel at the LT position the RT may be more suited to him. He has huge upside and could be seen as a poor mans' Jake Long.
Baker, is a experienced senior coming out of USC, a little more injuries than you would like but has the ability to play either RT or LT at the next level and have no trouble playing Guard until an organization feels he's ready to take the T position on fully. However I feel he's going to play RT in the pro's better and LT as he sometimes gets over powered by the pass rush and I'd prefer that to not to happen on the QB's blindside.
Cherilus is large nimble LT who was a little below the other guys in this group before the Senior Bowl but after shining there needs a good combine to solidify his place among the elite 5 at the position.
So if the Bears can't trade down a few places, no more than 4 without loosing the guy out of these that they want I would jump at it and really with 3 out of the 4 not really need a OT and Houston needing a RB more than OT there could be a chance that all 4 are still on the board at the 18th pick. So it's feasible if say a DE stands out from the pack left at the combine then the Vikings may want to trade up above Detroit and Arizona who also want DE's so they can get there pick of the litter. So ideally I see the Bears trading with the Vikings moving down to the 18th pick gaining a 3rd round and 7th round pick maybe in the process (14th pick =1100 points 18th pick equals 900 points, 200 point difference is made up by Minnesota giving Chicago their second 3rd round pick 83rd overall worth 175 points and their 7th round pick at 194th overall totaling 199.8 points)
Big question is first if the Vikings and the bears can work this out or simply if Arizona wants it more than Detroit or if they are just happy to wait and see. I just don't see them doing that though as it stands because out of DE's available in my eyes the quality drops significantly after the next two DE's are taken (IMO: Derrick Harvey (DE - Florida) and Calais Campbell (DE - Miami)) The DE from Clemson is the next best and I see him more as 25th to 31st pick sort of talent. With regards the CB's I feel as though the talent level in the class is deeper and teams can find 1st round talent at the position in the later rounds.
There maybe interest by Dallas to move up and get one of the "Big RB's"(Stewart and Mendenhall) ahead of Houston and Arizona who may take RB's where they are presently. However I think this is less likely as the Bears could fall too far to still take their pick of the OT available as Houston/ Philli Washington may take three of the four OT before the Bears would get to pick at 22nd overall.
Either way, if the Bears cannot find a trade partner out of the Vikings/Lions/Cardinals and at a pinch Dallas I see the Bears having to make the choice between immediate Starting Ability and Overall Potential and that really puts the Pick between Williams/Cherilus or Otah (Baker removed due to recent Injury history). I see the Bears taking whichever one of these players performs the best at the combine. Can't really say which at the moment so I'll leave it at that. In summary, hopefully after a trade with the Vikings, but more than likely not, the Bears, for the sake of argument draft Chris Williams (OT- Vanderbilt)
Sorry that was a little more in depth than the others, but it is a Bears Blog. Lol.
Detroit: As just mentioned, the Lions need help at DE/OG/CB so looking at the available talent at this pick really the choice is between CB or DE and I feel that Derrick Harvey (DE - Florida) wins out as the huge drop off in talent between the top 4 DE and the remaining DE in the draft compared to the distance between the remaining CB's is much greater and I feel as though Detroit will find a good CB in the later rounds.
Arizona: As with Detroit, Arizona needs help at the DE/CB and RB positions. So it comes down to Calais Campbell (DE - Miami) vs. A number of quality CB's vs. Either Stewart or Mendenhall and maybe Felix Jones depending on his combine results. In this case I still feel with the strength in numbers available in both the RB class and the CB class Arizona chooses to improve their D-line with the addition of Calais Campbell (DE - Miami)
Minnesota: In this Draft, if the Bears had traded down to hear they could still choose between the 4 top OT that were available at the 14th pick. But as it stands the Vikings need DE/CB/WR and with two the better three DE's now gone only Clemson's DE, Phillip Merling, so that in my opinion is a reach. So with the 17th overall pick the Vikings select a CB. I believe their best option are either Reggie Smith (CB - Oklahoma) and D. Rodgers-Cromartie (CB - Tennessee State). Aqib Talib (CB - Kansas) and homegrown talent in the form of Antoine Cason - (CB - Arizona State) deserve a look here as well but I believe D. Rodgers-Cromartie (CB - Tennessee State) is taken here
Houston: Now these guys are feasibly the next ones to take a OT after the Bears but although it's been said in the media that this is the way they are looking I just can't see them missing out on the choice of any of the remaining top 4 running backs in the form of Stewart / Mendenhall / Felix Jones. Mainly because they already have OT's in place who are doing a reasonable job and a strong running game is needed to really kick this team to the next level. Hence I see them taking Mendenhall over Stewart as he is more elusive for his size than Stewart and also has great hands, like Stewart. But Mainly because I see him being a true work horse in the NFL and dependable as Illinois only got where they were cause of Mendenhall while Stewart, after Dixon got injured, the team just didn't seem to produce. This maybe a case where the Interview is more important than the measurements as really that is all that separates them. Therefore Rashard Mendenhall - (RB -Illinois) is the pick.
Philadelphia: If the Bears don't take Otah I see him at Philli's ideal pick at 19. My thinking is that the Eagles are going to have looked at the draft and really it's not gone how they would like it. The DE class which was a top heavy, talent wise, group anyway has been ransacked and it still would be a reach for Phillips from Clemson. The CB class really is untouched and really they could find a good quality CB in the 2nd Round where they hold the 50th overall pick. No FS or TE is worthy of this high a pick after Kenny Phillips had gone so really depends on what Philli's intentions with Donavan McNabb are. Donovan has asked publicly for Playmakers to be added to the team. If Philli really wants to show solidarity with their QB of the Present they take the first WR of the board. But, if they are trying to build for Kolb, the QB of the future they draft OT and take Otah.
I personally think the McNabb Ship has sailed in Philli and I honestly think that Philli want to trade him. Problem is, Donovan is reluctant to leave and no team with Playoff capabilities has offered the organization enough yet. Come Draft Day that might be another story. All the teams that are interested: Ravens/Vikings/Bears have too many other needs this year to offer enough. So the fact is Donovan is in a catch 22 as Philli don't really want him, But aren't going to let him go for free. Donovan wants to have another crack at the Super bowl either in Philli or with, in his eyes, another equal quality side. So he would reject offers from the only teams who would like him AND can afford him in a trade because they are not contenders: Jets/Atlanta/Kansas. And teams who want him that are contenders, at least on paper, Ravens/Vikings/Bears can't afford him this year as they are trying to plug too many holes in the draft to give up to many draft picks.
There fore I think the Eagles give Donovan the, behind closed doors, big f@#K you and draft for the future rather than the present. Taking Jeff Otah - (OT - Pittsburgh) of the board at the 19th pick
Tampa Bay: If this team wasn't coached by Joe Gruden, I would say WR/RB no question as they desperately need new blood at the positions and they can take anyone from the WR class as no one before Tampa has taken a WR. But as I mentioned Gruden is in charge and his fetish for collecting QB's is scary. Although Brian Brohm is not the mold for a Tampa Bay QB, mobile, comfortably throw on the run, Scramble a lot when no ones open. I still see him being taken here if he's still around. To me it confounds logic that Joe Gruden would do this but come on, Simms, Plummer, Garcia, Gradkowski, McCown and now being linked to Culpepper. That's just this season. I'm going to hope Tampa go WR/RB here and let them take in my eyes the best player available because it's what a sane person would do but Gruden is bound to mess me up and take Brohm here, or just for fun screw everyone up and take either Flacco/ Woodson/ Booty this early. Don't get me wrong I actual see Tampa needing a QB of the future but really the class is not that strong and unless you can get Matt Ryan, the only one of the top two QB's who could work in the Tampa styled offense, I see them waiting until the 3rd round for Booty. Stewart would be a sound pick here, as would Kelly from Oklahoma. Even the DT from North Carolina would make a lot of sense. But I feel that Stewart is the same style runner as Williams who's already there, bang up pretty badly, but there and Balmer from NC is still a reach so Tampa takes the First WR of the Board and Malcolm Kelly (WR- Oklahoma) is a Buccaneer.
Washington: These guys have some needs. OG/DT/DE/CB/WR/OT and at a pinch LB so really I see Washington trading down as the DT, Balmer, North Carolina, available is just about ok, because of a top heavy DT class, here but it's still a reach. DE is the same with Clemson's Phillips. CB still has a lot of choice as with WR so really I see if Washington can't trade down to gain more picks they take OT here and Pick up Cherilus or Baker. I give the nod to Gosder Cherilus (OT - Boston College) at this point but Baker may pull this back after the combine.
Dallas: With the first of their two first round picks I think Dallas goes RB here with Johnathan Stewart RB Oregon as there is greater risk that he gets taken by Seattle or San Diego to replace Michael Turner before their next pick than the remaining top 5 CB going all in the next 5 picks. Also he would make a great 1-2 punch with Marion Barber.
Pittsburgh: I think Pittsburgh, if they haven't addressed the need in the F.A. market, will take the best guard available here as they are a run strong team and losing Faneca will be hard to replace. Also they need to get younger at the guard position and I believe they may even take 2 OG in the Draft. OT also could be addressed here and it's feasible that Baker is taken as he's fallen down the pecking order and could be a steal here. However, OG still looks more likely due to the talent available meeting the team's need around the right sort of pick in the draft. So the Steelers take either Oniel Cousins (OG - Texas El Paso) or the talent junior guard Brandon Albert (OG - Virginia). In this case I feel that Cousins wins out due to his versatility being reasonably capable of playing any position on the line.
Tennessee: This comes down to supply and demand, Yes Vince desperately needs targets in the passing game but the Defense needs to cover for the expected loss of Albert Haynesworth in Free Agency. So with the DT position heavily pounded in the opening 6 picks of the draft, Kentwan Balmer (DT- North Carolina) is taken here.
Seattle: These have some quick decisions to make at DT talent has just been tapped again, Running back stocks are still high but maybe not of a 1st round quality in such a deep class, OG and TE are an option with Brandon Albert (OG - Virginia) and Fred Davis (TE - USC) respectively. But in my eyes if they don't rank Fred Davis or Brandon Albert that much higher than other Guards and TE's in the class I would trade down for a team that wanted, if he's still around, Brian Brohm. He's fallen hard, as have all the QB's because of greater needs and a perceived weak crop of QB's in this year's draft. I still think he's first round Talent in fact after the combine he'll be tempting teams to take him at their first pick but I just see the same thing happening with Brohm that happened to Quinn. Someone will be sold on him but have catered for a greater need e.g.
To name a few who may want him, and can't wait until the second round as Miami/Atlanta or Baltimore will take him, hint, hint Chicago. It will never happen but if they trade down with the Vikings to Pick 18th they gain another 3rd Round pick and a 7th round pick, not to mention any compensation pick due to lost free agents. So I would see if they could get back into the first round to get Brohm. Maybe not here with Seattle, but soon, as otherwise I can see Atlanta/Baltimore being a great home for him. Is it feasible?
Possibly depending on how sold they are on him; in my opinion they aren't at the moment and if they have set their sights already on Joe Flacco as media reports suggest. But Here goes: (Seattle pick is worth 720 points Chicago's 2nd round pick is worth 450 points so huge difference and I don't see them giving up a 2nd and 3rd but Maybe the 5th round pick plus next years 1st round pick for Seattle's pick could interest them so if they finished 14th overall this year I can see the Bears being anywhere from 4th to 25th pick in the first round next year. Averages about (1126 points) so the possibility of Seattle taking at worst 37.5 points + 720 points = 757.5 points or the equivalent of the 24th overall Pick and at best for Seattle, 37.5 points plus 1800 points = 1837.5 points or 4th overall pick.
Another direction would be the long term replacement for Alexander in the form of Felix Jones, he can handle a tandem job role as he's had that through college with Mcfadden. Also he's not got alot of wear on the tyres so to speak so after next season Felix Jones takes over as the main back and Alexander is cut or reworked his contract as he hasn't been productive since his mvp year.
Seriously though I think that Jerry Angelo gambles that there will be a "good QB" instead of a franchise QB available at the Bears 2nd round pick and the Settle Seahawks take Felix Jones RB Arkansas
Jacksonville: They need WR/OT/DE/CB so I would say they maybe look at Baker from USC at OT here, DeSean Jackson - (WR - California), Phillip Merling (DE - Clemson), or Aqib Talib (CB - Kansas). With Jacksonville, I'm guessing, maybe looking at USC'S Baker and Aqib Talib as the best talents available here I see them siding with Sam Baker (OT - USC) as their choice allow them to add to a offense that found it's feet last year and with the addition of Baker's versatility, playing either tackle, I can see the Jags getting better and better. Also this choice makes sense as the CB and WR pools haven't really been tapped much yet so there will be good options later in the draft and talent wise I see Baker as a Better prospect than Merling in their respective positions.
San Diego: With Jacksonville choosing Baker over Merling they allow San Diego to address their biggest need this draft and Phillip Merling (DE - Clemson) answers at least part of that need. Other than this WR is a choice but with the addition of Chambers from Miami this is less of a pressing need. ILB could be addressed here with Conner from Penn State but with the need for DE starting talent and backup as well in this draft added to Merling dropping this far San Diego gladly take Merling.
Dallas: With there second pick in the first round I see Dallas addressing their biggest need and draft the best available CB by taking Antoine Cason - (CB - Arizona)
San Francisco: Wow... You guys really didn't play like you expected this season did you? And really they would kill to get New England's Pick back this year but having traded back into the 1st round with Indy at least they have a First round pick to address their issues. Really their biggest issue is up front on the D-line. Followed closely by WR. So looking at the talent it depends on how big a need the 49ers think the D-line is causing them to reach or they take value with a WR at this point. Options really are bare on the D-line front with Merling and Balmer gone but available options who might improve their stock value at the combine are: Groves from Auburn and Jackson form USC at DE as well as fellow Auburn player Sims and Harrison from Arkansas. All four players with a good Combine could drastically change my earlier draft picks where the talent / need at the other positions where DE were considered may tip the balance back to the D-line. Who Know we may find by the 49er's pick all of them may already of gone, but in this case I see them taking the best player of the four over WR as San Fran's defense must improve if Mike Martz is running the offense forcing a uncertain QB, Hill or Smith to make hard throws trusting a weak group of WR to be there every time. Plus WR still will have some good pickings in the later rounds due to the depth of the class. So they draft for a pass rush and take Quentin Groves (DE - Auburn).
Green Bay: Farve back again me thinks so QB is off for the moment and with no desperate needs I see them as ideal trade bait for a team wanting Brohm, if he's still around, but we'll see. RB (backup to grant or a tandem player) and CB (coverage guy to compliment the press guys) are needed if they stay here so at RB you have Slaton form West Virginia, Smith for Central Florida and Chris Johnson from East Carolina. All of which would be a nice compliment to Grants forceful running between the tackles. At CB my choice would be Brandon Flowers who I see having great coverage skills at the next level and the speed to keep with WR's down the line, Problem is he still may get out played by taller fast WR at 5ft 10in. but I still feel he would be a good fit here. Boston College's Tribble needs a good combine to take this place back from Flowers due to his poor showing at the Senior Bowl. Another player to mention is Chevis Jackson form LSU who had a great Senior Bowl Week and could challenge Flowers with a strong outing at the combine. At this point I would say CB is a greater want for the draft position and Flowers is the best one available so Green Bay with the 30th pick overall take Brandon Flowers (CB - Virginia Tech) to bolster there team for one last crack at the big game with Brett Farve. Honestly if the Packers have any idea that Brett Farve isn't looking to make this a two year period before he retires and Brohm having fallen this far and really him being a great fit for their offense I can see him going here if no one has moved up for him.
(New England's 31st pick forfeit): Apparently, there is evidence now that Spying has been in use by the Patriots since the 2000 season so this isn't over by a long way.
NY Giants: After a fine Super Bowl win over the previously undefeated Patriots this team can't sit on its hands this off-season. They stand to lose their starting Safety to Free agency and LB could be improved. Also WR could be address but that's later in the draft as Young depth is needed. Arguably they could add to the DE rotation here with Strahan probably gone on this high in his career. But in this case I see them taking the best Strong Safety in the draft and pick up Jamar Adams (S - Michigan)
So that's my first round.
I'm not going to go into detail on my second round picks but I'd thought I'd list them just to let you guys see what I'm thinking.
Miami: Justin King CB Penn State or QB the Third best after the Combine: (Flacco/Henne/)
St Louis: Mario Manningham WR Michigan
Atlanta: Kevin Smith RB Central Florida (or a pick for Flacco/Henne/)
Kansas: Anthony Collins OT Kansas
NY Jets: Dan Conner ILB Penn State
Oakland: Pat Sims DT Auburn
Baltimore: James Hardy WR Indiana
San Francisco: Earl Doucet WR LSU
New Orleans: Ali Highsmith OLB LSU
Buffalo: Trevor Laws DT Notre Dame
Denver: Marcus Harrison DT Arkansas
Carolina: Tony Hills OT Texas (if rehab on leg goes well) or John Greco OT Toledo
Chicago: This one I will explain. Joe Flacco would be the best choice here as he will provide competition to the rotation (2nd/3rd string) this year and could ultimately be the starter. He has the arm that Lovie covets to use with our deep threats, Berrian (at the moment) and Hester as well as good pocket presence, stepping up into the pocket rather than trying to out run DE's out of the back like Grossman does all the time. Then I would say if Flacco has gone to either Miami or Atlanta, more than likely, if they haven't got a QB in the first round as in this case. Henne, who in my opinion has less of an upside than Flacco and weaker and less accurate deep ball, could still be here. If so he would be a good option because, for example, say we take him here. He goes in as 3rd String this year and baring any massive injuries doesn't play next year. Griese would be cut (too expensive veteran backup) after pre-season next year to enable this. Grossman resigned competes with Orton for starting job on an incentive based 1-year deal. Hence if the season goes badly they trade Grossman for something at the end of the year and look to the draft for either a franchise QB again or a 3rd Stringer in the later rounds and let Orton and Henne fight it out for the Starting job. If it goes well with Grossman resign him, Keep Orton around as the backup or trade him in a Matt Schwab style deal and move Henne to number 2. If Orton is the starter, cut your losses with Grossman and move Henne to Backup. Or it completely goes to hell then we will have a high pick next year and Henne will be in a Miami's Beck position next year proving his worth which may cause him to sink or swim after getting rid of both Grossman (cut) and Orton (trade) and drafting a franchise play-caller next year. Long winded I know but I my eyes makes sense.
However, if he's gone to Atlanta/Jets, as I don't see Henne been taken before Flacco, and he's going to be gone first to Miami or Atlanta, we much look away and go RB here.
So the Bears pick up Joe Flacco QB Delaware in this one out of sheer dumb luck. Unlikely in my eyes if Baltimore didn't take a QB in the first, but who knows right?
Detroit: For now (depending on Tribble's combine) Chevis Jackson CB LSU
Cincinnati: Erin Henderson OLB Maryland
Minnesota: Earl Bennett WR Vanderbilt
Atlanta: Chad Henne QB Michigan (if they didn't already take QB this round or earlier)
Philli: DeJuan Tribble CB Virginia Tech
Arizona: Tracy Porter CB Indiana
Washington: Brandon Albert (OG - Virginia)
Tampa Bay: Steve Slaton RB West Virginia (Lightning to Graham/William's Thunder)
Pittsburgh: John Greco OT Toledo
Tennessee: Limas Sweed WR Texas
Seattle: Fred Davis TE USC
Cleveland: Letroy Guion DT Florida State.
Miami: Andre Woodson QB Kentucky
Jacksonville: Adarius Bowman WR Oklahoma State or Jason Jones DE Eastern Michigan Depends what Jacksonville thought about Jones workouts at the Senior Bowl.
Indianapolis: Eric Young OG Tennessee (depending on rehab of leg) or Roy Schuening OG Oregon State.
Green Bay: TE from Texas A&M (DON'T KNOW HIS NAME)
Dallas: Keenan Burton WR Kentucky
New England: Phillip Wheeler LB Georgia Tech
NY Giants: Terrell Thomas CB USC