07:48 PM ET  02.23 |

 

 

Many draft and NFL experts have Matt Ryan as the #1 QB draft prospect in the draft.  Some have him tagged as one of the top 5 players in the upcoming draft.  The reason for his climb had to do with his so called leadership ability, and nothing to do with his above average arm strength and accuracy.  As Bucky Brooks reported on SI.com, "His accuracy, touch and arm strength are all rated above average; but it is his leadership that scouts find most impressive."

I'm going to first attack his leadership.  In the first Virginia Tech game, the Boston College Eagles went the first 57 minutes and 49 seconds without a score.  Much credit is given to Matt Ryanfor the win, too much credit if you ask me.  Watch the tape and you will see that Virginia Tech played the end of that game "not to lose".  They dropped into "The Prevent" and rushed only three for the last two drives of the game.  All Matt Ryan had to do was play "pitch-and-catch"; while he took his time waiting for his receivers to get open.  On the final score of the game, with 0:11 on the clock, Ryan seemed to have an eternity in the pocket.  He casually would move away from the any pressure and after what seemed like forever he threw a 24 yard touchdown pass to Andre Callender.  To me, that didn't prove leadership.  It just proved that the Hokies blew the game by not sticking to their original defensive formula in the closing moments of the game. 

Now let's look at the following week.  Against F.S.U., with a 1:10 left down 20-17, Matt Ryan threw an Interception that went the other way for six.  This put the game out of reach, at that point, with a 27-17 score.  Against Maryland, the Eagles were down 42-21 in the 4^th quarter.  Ryan threw 2 of his 3 touchdown passes with 7:31 and 0:52 remaining.  During the time, Maryland was playing not to lose and took their foot off the pedal.  The Eagles lost 42-35.  In their final loss, a rematch against Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game, Matt Ryan had a touchdown run, but no passing touchdowns.  They went completely scoreless in the second half of the game.  Let me break down the 2nd half for you of that game:

5 plays than punt

6 plays, turnover on downs Incomplete pass on 4th-and-1

4 plays and punt

4 plays and punt

12 plays ending with an INT on 4th-and-4 on VTech 13 (2:15 remaining in 4th quarter)

3 plays ending with an INT being returned for 40 yards and a touchdown on a 3rd-and-10 situation on BC's 35. (0:23 remianing in 4th quarter)

Now that's hardly worthy of a gold star for leadership if you ask me. 

Below I have a chart of Matt Ryan's performances over the season.  I'll take this time to explain the abbreviations:

 

S.I.P.R. - Final Sports Illustrated Power Rankings

O.P.D.E. - Opponents Pass Defense Efficiency (the lower the score the better)

D.C.% - The average completion percentage given up by that defense over the season

O.Y.P.A. - Opponent's average Yards Per Attempt over the season.

*-denotes a Division I-AA school (UMass)

_____________________________________________________________________________

S.I.P.R

Opp.Opp. Rec.O.P.D.E.Comp.Att.Comp%D.C.%%Diff32Wake F.(9-4)108.5325261.5%53.4%8.1%57N.C. St.(5-7)113.6153444.1%54.6%-10.5%44Gtech(7-6)124.5304468.2%56.3%11.9%106Army(3-9)137.9355168.6%65.0%3.6%N/A* UMass(10-3)108.0*244257.1%55%*2.1%63Bowl. G.(8-5)135.2243275.0%60.2%14.8%94Notre D.(3-9)111.8324965.3%52.6%12.7%6VTech(11-3)97.1255248.1%52.1%-4%33F.S.U.(7-6)124.4265349.1%56.9%-7.8%50Mary.(6-7)120.3335658.9%60.0%-1.1%16Clem.(9-4)108.3314766.0%58.1%7.9%65Miami(5-7)125.6264360.5%56.8%3.7%6VTech(11-3)97.1335263.5%52.1%11.4%62Mich. St.(7-6)126.4224746.8%58.2%-11.4%Tot/AvgN/A(101-79)117.738865459.3%56.5%2.8%

Fig 1-1

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Opp.O.P.D.E.Y.P.A.O.Y.P.A.DiffTDINTFUMResultWake F.108.57.855.91.95520W/38-28N.C. St.113.64.186.24-2.06110W/37-17Gtech124.59.877.222.65102W/24-10Army137.96.987.65-0.67320W/37-17UMass108.0*4.865.76*-0.9100W/24-14Bowl. G.135.29.757.462.29400W/55-24Notre D.111.85.495.64-0.15210W/27-14VTech97.15.485.58-0.1221W/14-10F.S.U.124.47.836.880.95230L/27-17Mary.120.37.526.60.92320L/42-35Clem.108.36.75.760.94110W/20-17Miami125.68.587.341.24321W/28-14VTech97.15.875.580.24020L/30-16Mich. St.126.45.36.75-1.45312W/24-21Tot/Avg.117.76.896.51-0.3831196N/A

Fig. 1-2

____________________________________________________________________________

What this chart shows us is that Matt Ryan is really inconsistent, a quality that usually doesn't inspire a teammate's confidence at the next level.  He had four games at which he didn't meet par on completion percentage.  He had another 5 games where he didn't make par for yards per attempt.  He also had 9 out of 14 games where his TD:INT was greater than 1:1; that leaves 5 out of 14 games where he was equal or less than a 1:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. If we look at games that he had exceeded par in completion percentage and yards per attempt, while maintaining a greater than 1:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, he had only had done that 4 out of 14 games.  Those games were against Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Bowling Green, and Miami.  Only one of those teams ranked in the top 50 for Pass Defense Efficiency, and that was Wake Forest which was 15^th in the nation in that stat.  None of those teams were ranked higher than 32 in the power rankings either.  What does that say about Matt Ryan's NFL prospects? 

He didn't face many good pass defenses, and he averaged 46.7 pass attempts per game; which is a large reason for why his yardage, and possibly touchdown, stats are so inflated.  I've watched his game tape, and his play has matched up with I've been stating through use of these stats.  He is remarkably unspectacular.  Nothing I've seen has showed his dominance of the game or his will to lead his team to victory.  Last year, he wasn't even on anyone's potential mock 1^st round draft before this coming season.    What raised him up to first round status?  The only thing spectacular was his 4,507 passing yards this season.  His pass efficiency isn't even in the top 50 for the past season.  Sam Bradford (Oklahoma) led the nation with a 176.5 rating, and ranked at 50 is Patrick Pinkney from East Carolina with a 131.7 rating.  Matt Ryan is sitting at a mediocre 127.0 rating.  Let's not forget that Matt Ryan didn't participate in the Senior Bowl and isn't planning on throwing any passes at the combine; waiting rather to throw at his pro day in the future.  If I was a GM, I wouldn't like that a guy like this isn't taking every opportunity to show us that his physical tools are better than advertised.  This guy has too many question marks, lacks the physical tools, and has played too inconsistently over his career to warrant a top 5 or 1^st round draft projection. 

Let's not kid ourselves; this is a very weak quarterback class that will be lucky to produce a couple quality starters in the league, let alone a franchise quarterback.  Matt Ryan exhibits good size, above average arm strength and accuracy, an over-rated report of his leadership abilities, inconsistent play, and an average ability for a quarterback to not fumble the football (6 fumbles over 68 rushing attempts and 21 sacks).   If any team uses a 1^st round pick on this guy, they will be making an expensive gamble; which I believe, will be an expensive bust that will ultimately destroy a rebuilding franchise and cost a GM and coach their jobs.

Stats taken from: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/