Many draft and NFL experts have Matt Ryan as the #1 QB draft prospect in the draft. Some have him tagged as one of the top 5 players in the upcoming draft. The reason for his climb had to do with his so called leadership ability, and nothing to do with his above average arm strength and accuracy. As Bucky Brooks reported on SI.com, "His accuracy, touch and arm strength are all rated above average; but it is his leadership that scouts find most impressive."
I'm going to first attack his leadership. In the first Virginia Tech game, the Boston College Eagles went the first 57 minutes and 49 seconds without a score. Much credit is given to Matt Ryanfor the win, too much credit if you ask me. Watch the tape and you will see that Virginia Tech played the end of that game "not to lose". They dropped into "The Prevent" and rushed only three for the last two drives of the game. All Matt Ryan had to do was play "pitch-and-catch"; while he took his time waiting for his receivers to get open. On the final score of the game, with 0:11 on the clock, Ryan seemed to have an eternity in the pocket. He casually would move away from the any pressure and after what seemed like forever he threw a 24 yard touchdown pass to Andre Callender. To me, that didn't prove leadership. It just proved that the Hokies blew the game by not sticking to their original defensive formula in the closing moments of the game.
Now let's look at the following week. Against F.S.U., with a 1:10 left down 20-17, Matt Ryan threw an Interception that went the other way for six. This put the game out of reach, at that point, with a 27-17 score. Against Maryland, the Eagles were down 42-21 in the 4th quarter. Ryan threw 2 of his 3 touchdown passes with 7:31 and 0:52 remaining. During the time, Maryland was playing not to lose and took their foot off the pedal. The Eagles lost 42-35. In their final loss, a rematch against Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game, Matt Ryan had a touchdown run, but no passing touchdowns. They went completely scoreless in the second half of the game. Let me break down the 2nd half for you of that game:
5 plays than punt
6 plays, turnover on downs Incomplete pass on 4th-and-1
4 plays and punt
4 plays and punt
12 plays ending with an INT on 4th-and-4 on VTech 13 (2:15 remaining in 4th quarter)
3 plays ending with an INT being returned for 40 yards and a touchdown on a 3rd-and-10 situation on BC's 35. (0:23 remianing in 4th quarter)
Now that's hardly worthy of a gold star for leadership if you ask me.
Below I have a chart of Matt Ryan's performances over the season. I'll take this time to explain the abbreviations:
S.I.P.R. - Final Sports Illustrated Power Rankings
O.P.D.E. - Opponents Pass Defense Efficiency (the lower the score the better)
D.C.% - The average completion percentage given up by that defense over the season
O.Y.P.A. - Opponent's average Yards Per Attempt over the season.
*-denotes a Division I-AA school (UMass)
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S.I.P.R
Opp.Opp. Rec.O.P.D.E.Comp.Att.Comp%D.C.%%Diff32Wake F.(9-4)108.5325261.5%53.4%8.1%57N.C. St.(5-7)113.6153444.1%54.6%-10.5%44Gtech(7-6)124.5304468.2%56.3%11.9%106Army(3-9)137.9355168.6%65.0%3.6%N/A* UMass(10-3)108.0*244257.1%55%*2.1%63Bowl. G.(8-5)135.2243275.0%60.2%14.8%94Notre D.(3-9)111.8324965.3%52.6%12.7%6VTech(11-3)97.1255248.1%52.1%-4%33F.S.U.(7-6)124.4265349.1%56.9%-7.8%50Mary.(6-7)120.3335658.9%60.0%-1.1%16Clem.(9-4)108.3314766.0%58.1%7.9%65Miami(5-7)125.6264360.5%56.8%3.7%6VTech(11-3)97.1335263.5%52.1%11.4%62Mich. St.(7-6)126.4224746.8%58.2%-11.4%Tot/AvgN/A(101-79)117.738865459.3%56.5%2.8%Fig 1-1
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Opp.O.P.D.E.Y.P.A.O.Y.P.A.DiffTDINTFUMResultWake F.108.57.855.91.95520W/38-28N.C. St.113.64.186.24-2.06110W/37-17Gtech124.59.877.222.65102W/24-10Army137.96.987.65-0.67320W/37-17UMass108.0*4.865.76*-0.9100W/24-14Bowl. G.135.29.757.462.29400W/55-24Notre D.111.85.495.64-0.15210W/27-14VTech97.15.485.58-0.1221W/14-10F.S.U.124.47.836.880.95230L/27-17Mary.120.37.526.60.92320L/42-35Clem.108.36.75.760.94110W/20-17Miami125.68.587.341.24321W/28-14VTech97.15.875.580.24020L/30-16Mich. St.126.45.36.75-1.45312W/24-21Tot/Avg.117.76.896.51-0.3831196N/A
Fig. 1-2
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What this chart shows us is that Matt Ryan is really inconsistent, a quality that usually doesn't inspire a teammate's confidence at the next level. He had four games at which he didn't meet par on completion percentage. He had another 5 games where he didn't make par for yards per attempt. He also had 9 out of 14 games where his TD:INT was greater than 1:1; that leaves 5 out of 14 games where he was equal or less than a 1:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. If we look at games that he had exceeded par in completion percentage and yards per attempt, while maintaining a greater than 1:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, he had only had done that 4 out of 14 games. Those games were against Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Bowling Green, and Miami. Only one of those teams ranked in the top 50 for Pass Defense Efficiency, and that was Wake Forest which was 15th in the nation in that stat. None of those teams were ranked higher than 32 in the power rankings either. What does that say about Matt Ryan's NFL prospects?
He didn't face many good pass defenses, and he averaged 46.7 pass attempts per game; which is a large reason for why his yardage, and possibly touchdown, stats are so inflated. I've watched his game tape, and his play has matched up with I've been stating through use of these stats. He is remarkably unspectacular. Nothing I've seen has showed his dominance of the game or his will to lead his team to victory. Last year, he wasn't even on anyone's potential mock 1st round draft before this coming season. What raised him up to first round status? The only thing spectacular was his 4,507 passing yards this season. His pass efficiency isn't even in the top 50 for the past season. Sam Bradford (Oklahoma) led the nation with a 176.5 rating, and ranked at 50 is Patrick Pinkney from East Carolina with a 131.7 rating. Matt Ryan is sitting at a mediocre 127.0 rating. Let's not forget that Matt Ryan didn't participate in the Senior Bowl and isn't planning on throwing any passes at the combine; waiting rather to throw at his pro day in the future. If I was a GM, I wouldn't like that a guy like this isn't taking every opportunity to show us that his physical tools are better than advertised. This guy has too many question marks, lacks the physical tools, and has played too inconsistently over his career to warrant a top 5 or 1st round draft projection.
Let's not kid ourselves; this is a very weak quarterback class that will be lucky to produce a couple quality starters in the league, let alone a franchise quarterback. Matt Ryan exhibits good size, above average arm strength and accuracy, an over-rated report of his leadership abilities, inconsistent play, and an average ability for a quarterback to not fumble the football (6 fumbles over 68 rushing attempts and 21 sacks). If any team uses a 1st round pick on this guy, they will be making an expensive gamble; which I believe, will be an expensive bust that will ultimately destroy a rebuilding franchise and cost a GM and coach their jobs.
Stats taken from: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/
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Comments (36) Add A Comment
I think when the scouts talk about Matt Ryan's leadership, they're referring to his personal integrity, not his ability to make come backs.
Basketball Jesus:…
Mc Lean , VA
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No, they are talking about his ability to make comebacks. Since when has personal integrity vaulted a player up from no where into possibly being the first pick in the draft?
"Ryan is best described as a winner who has all of the intangibles needed to lead his team to victory. He has consistently shown the ability to direct his team to wins in adverse conditions (Boston College defeated three ranked opponents on the road in '07), and his penchant for orchestrating late game comebacks has cemented his status as the ultimate competitor. Although there are other quarterbacks in this draft class that may possess better physical tools, Ryan's overall package of skills and intangibles pushes him to the top." -Bucky Brooks, Scout's View, on SI.com
All of that quote is what I am disproving. Personal integrity doesn't win football games, nor is personal integrity a synonym for leadership. It's a perferred characteristic, nothing else.
El Pollo Loco
Total Comments (385)
Good blog. I've always wondered how he suddenly became a Top 5 prospect, worthy of going Numero Uno in the draft. It may just be me, but I'd never heard of this guy until this year.
Big M: The Original
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Ditto, Big M. When I watched him in the FSU, VTech (both of them), and Michigan St. games I couldn't believe how everyone thought he was a Heisman candidate.
I'm a Dolphins fan, and if my team drafts him I will be the first to call for the Tuna's head for allowing such a boneheaded move to go down. Luckily, he's favoring Chris Long, the DE from Virginia. Although I think they need more help on the Offensive Line, and Jake Long is about as can't miss as you can get.
El Pollo Loco
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EL - Good blog, im right there with you on Matt Ryan. I was at this years game when the Canes came up here to Boston College. Ryan looked awful against a not so great Miami D. I believe he had 2 or 3 int's..and he let the hurricanes stay in the game. The canes had no offense at all that day, and if it wasnt for turnovers BC kills Miami.
All the talk about Ryan this year as a heisman trophy candidate was short lived after he proved he really wasnt that good! How many Int's did this kid throw? Too many!
There is a rumor the Falcons will trade up to #1 for Ryan, and as a Dolphins fan i pray they do! If Parcells & Ireland take Ryan, i will question how much of a scout Ireland really is. Chris Long, or Jake Long are the picks we hafta go with.
Tru-Dolfan: Hates…
Beantown, MA
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I totally agree. I also feel that Jake Long is the one can't miss prospect in the top 5. I'd be happy with Chris Long, because I feel like he'd be another great leader for that D. A high motor can take you a long way on defense.
El Pollo Loco
Total Comments (385)
Wow. You've completely changed my perspective on Matt Ryan. You're right.
dwade82697 RIP…
Total Comments (939)
as a ravens fan i pray that:
1. we don't trade up for him
2. we don't pick him at # 8
3. we don't pick him at all
the guy looks like ryan leaf, what else needs to be said ?
Ed Reed Fan:Rice=The…
Total Comments (2025)
Yeah, I too don't understand the appeal of the guy. Like you said, he had what seemed to be an eternity to throw the ball. That doesn't tell me that he is great. That tells me that he either has great blockers, or his opponents didn't have great pass defenses. Perhaps it is even both. No, he's too inconsistent, and I wouldn't feel comfortable at all if we were to pick him up. God knows we already have a QB with consistency issues, and he has just been resigned.
You should think about doing a blog entry on Woodson. He too his issues, and his stock has decreased as of late.
cubs/bears
Total Comments (1290)
I agree with you that he is overrated, but with the first game against VT, either way Boston College won. In the long run, the W or the L is all that matters.
JDawg1447
Jasper , GA
Total Comments (503)
Someone with the Falcons front office should be shown this before the draft.
JDawg1447
Jasper , GA
Total Comments (503)
This blog sums up every intelligent draft fan. This is a great blog. Ryan cannot read defenses, especially linebackers. Almost all of his picks come from linebackers. He will be a giant bust.
IrishR#1
Total Comments (8517)
I'm more pissed about how Brady Quinn was such a mediocre QB in the "expert"s eyes when he is a better scrambler and is more accurate and an overall better QB than Matt Ryan, yet Ryan is God's gift to the NFL in Fraud McShay's eyes and Quinn is the next Ryan Leaf. Again, great blog.
IrishR#1
Total Comments (8517)
I totally agree Mr. Costanza!
El Pollo Loco
Total Comments (385)
You negate to praise Ryan's ability to run an offense and when teams look for leadership it is the ability to run an offense, not late comebacks. Also, his team would have maybe won 2-4 games had he not been in the lineup. His receivers were awful, running back's average, and the offensivle line was below average at best. I'm not saying that Ryan is a sure fire 1st round quarterback, but who would you take ahead of him at the QB position? Brohm faltered in his senior year, Colt couldn't hit hit the ocean if he was still on the islands, and the next best signal caller is Joe Flacco, whom I am sure everyone knew before this season... or before January... yeah right! Don't knock Ryan yet because he has the intangibles to lead an NFL team.
DeucesWild22
Saint Cloud , MN
Total Comments (2)
Exactly, Deuces.
Blogger, do you realize that Ryan called a lot of his own plays? Look at quotes from his teammates (who, as Deuces pointed out, were average relative to a lot of the athletes they went up against in the ACC) - they all refer to Ryan's leadership and calm under pressure. Overrated traits for a QB? Or look at quotes from his coaches who say how easy he made their jobs because he understood everything they threw at him, not the least of which was an entirely new offense his final year at BC.
By the way, I don't think Woodson played in the ACC.
BCinSF
San Francisco , CA
Total Comments (4)
Deuces,
What do you think his team mates and coaches would say? Of course they will support him.
Gator91
Total Comments (1)
"You negate to praise Ryan's ability to run an offense and when teams look for leadership it is the ability to run an offense, not late comebacks. Also, his team would have maybe won 2-4 games had he not been in the lineup. His receivers were awful, running back's average, and the offensivle line was below average at best. I'm not saying that Ryan is a sure fire 1st round quarterback, but who would you take ahead of him at the QB position? Brohm faltered in his senior year, Colt couldn't hit hit the ocean if he was still on the islands, and the next best signal caller is Joe Flacco, whom I am sure everyone knew before this season... or before January... yeah right! Don't knock Ryan yet because he has the intangibles to lead an NFL team."
DeucesWild22 | 02/26/08, 02:06 PM
His ability to run an offense? There were numerous times he didn't complete more than 50% of his passes. There were times when he couldn't lead them to any type of scoring drive in the fouth quarter and/or 2nd half.
"Exactly, Deuces.
Blogger, do you realize that Ryan called a lot of his own plays? Look at quotes from his teammates (who, as Deuces pointed out, were average relative to a lot of the athletes they went up against in the ACC) - they all refer to Ryan's leadership and calm under pressure. Overrated traits for a QB? Or look at quotes from his coaches who say how easy he made their jobs because he understood everything they threw at him, not the least of which was an entirely new offense his final year at BC."
By the way, I don't think Woodson played in the ACC.
BCinSF | 02/26/08, 02:37 PM
What do you think his team mates are goig to say? "We lost despite the terrible play of our quarterback". When did you grab those quotes? After they beat VTech in their first match up? When you make a throw that wins a tough game in dramatic fashion it seems to wash away the rest of your sins. That's what team mates do. Reporters ask them what they think about this player, and they 99% of the time offer up nothing but praise.
Oh yeah, Woodson only plyed in the SEC and beat the L.S.U. Tigers in triple over-time. I didn't even discuss in this blog!
El Pollo Loco
Total Comments (385)
Did you watch the gamefilm or did you play this on EA College Football?
To the most casual observer (and possibly their grand mother), the "time" Ryan had in the Virginia Tech game was created through feeling the pocket and moving to space.
Unfortunately, your two years of high school Wing-T offense didn't expose you to the timing routes required in the NFL. These are the exact routes Ryan excels at by reading and throwing into small spaces. Whereas John David Booty, Brohm and company all throw to receivers with 7 feet on the DB's they left in the dust.
Since you have all of the game film handy (very impressive video library you must have) -
Watch:
BC-Georgia Tech - Brandon Robinson's over the shoulder catch for a touch down past two DB's.
Finally, lose the Steve-O picture. You're more of a Dave England guy.
CraigSmith
Chicago , IL
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