Fantasy Race Preview: UAW-Dodge 400 | FIOMattyH's Blog

The image that you may need to carry with you this week is the one of Carl Edwards' #99 Roush Fenway Ford Fusion relentlessly running down first Jeff Gordon, and then race leader Jimmie Johnson, for a convincing win at Auto Club Speedway in California. The victory by Edwards convinced me that Jack Roush and his Ford Factory team has recovered from being snookered in 2007 , mostly by Hendrick Motorsports, in the testing and development of the, former, Car of Tomorrow. The new Fusion race car was dominant with Edwards at the wheel, but Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle and Jamie McMurray all looked strong in California. The Fords are back - I am convinced.

But I am not convinced that it will make any difference at the next track where Jimmie Johnson has won the last three races and has a NASCAR Loop Data Driver rating of 133.7. In fact, of the sixteen categories that make up the pre-race Loop Box Score, Johnson has category-best ratings in ten. Five of the six items that he does not lead are passing stats - things like Passes Under Green, Quality Passes, Pass Differential. The thing is that he trails in the passing stats because he spent 93.2 % of all of his laps in the top fifteen and has led 24.5% of all laps over the last three years. Johnson did not have very many cars to pass, did he?

Couple the #48's past Las Vegas success with the fact that Johnson led more laps than anyone at California (76) and finished a strong second place, and picking anyone but Johnson this week is probably a mistake.

By comparison, Carl Edwards has a Loop Driver Rating of 78.3 and leads only the Green Passes category with 220. The Vegas track has been good for other Roush Ford drivers and Edwards is the highest rated driver at Homestead-Miami Speedway, the track most similar to Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Nevertheless, if you pick Edwards, you are basing it on last Monday at Cali - and that is not much to go by.

Jeff Gordon has the second best Driver Rating... (Read the full article here: Fantasy Race Preview: UAW-Dodge 400)

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