Well, we really, really needed Game 2. It's not panic time yet, but the Jazz have to win the next two. Have to.
In many ways, the first two games were reminiscent of the Houston series. We had chances in both games to win, but we failed. Against Houston, though, we came back and won the series in seven. Make no mistake: This is not Houston we are playing. These games in San Antonio were much more in the Spurs' favor than the first two games in Rocketland were in the Houston's favor. Plus, these are the Spurs. Winners of three rings. Not the Rockets--winners of no playoff series.
It's discouraging. Here's what needs to happen. The Jazz have to win every game in Salt Lake. That was a given before the series started. When you don't have homecourt, particularly if you're playing the Spurs, lose one at home, and you're done. That hasn't changed. The Jazz have to win one in San Antonio. That hasn't changed either. These first two losses mean the Jazz have, at most, two more chances to get that one road win.
I have broken down the probabilities of how this series will end up. Here's how it goes:
Spurs in four: 13 percent
Spurs in five: 45 percent
Spurs in six: 10 percent
Spurs in seven: 22 percent
Jazz in six: 8 percent
Jazz in seven: 2 percent
In other words, I give the Spurs a 90 percent chance to win this series. I think the likeliest path to a Jazz win is four them to win the next four games. The Jazz are capable of defending their homecourt. And Game 5 will be their best chance to win in San Antonio.
But I think there is a better likelihood the Jazz will be swept than win this series. And here's a few reasons why:
1. Tony Parker. He's clearly killing the Jazz right now.
2. The Spurs' defense: Has limited Utah to just Boozer and Williams.
3. Mehmet Okur: On a milk carton (because he's missing)
4. Derek Fisher: See entry for Okur
5. We haven't won in San Antonio this century.
6. Tim Duncan. Although he wasn't a big problem last night--thus, the reason we didn't see Araujo. He got his points, but Parker and Bruce Bowen were much more effective.
I really hope we can pull this series out because I think we could beat either the Pistons or the Cavs. But the Spurs are just playing too tough right now. If we can get these next two, then I think this series comes down to Game 5. But beating San Antonio twice in a row, even at home, seems like a distant dream right now.
Daniela Hantuchova
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