Well, I imagine most people are going to talk about free agency and Brett Favre this week. So here’s something different. I’ll get to free agency next week, when a few more deals have been worked out and I can analyze winners and losers a bit more thoroughly. As for Favre, I’ll believe it when the season ends and Favre hasn’t played a snap. Vinny Testaverde came back last year, folks, retirement isn’t as permanent as it used to be. All right, that’s all on that topic. On to an interesting study I just did.
I noticed that this year’s playoffs included several teams that were in the 2006 postseason, but not in 2007’s, namely Washington, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh. And several teams, such as New Orleans, NY Jets, Baltimore, and Philadelphia, had terrible seasons in 2005 and 2007 sandwiching a playoff year. I wondered if this was a recent trend, or even a trend at all – perhaps they were just noticeable because they involved such dynamic changes but it was part of the NFL averaging itself out.
So here was the hypothesis of my study: a team that had a major improvement or a major dropoff from the previous year will tend to revert to its form of two years ago. For example, the Redskins’ total wins from the past four seasons, in order of most recent to least recent: 9, 5, 10, 6. Down, up, down, and significantly in each case. The Jets are a textbook case over the same period: 4, 10, 4, 10. Six games better, six games worse, six games better. Basically, I was looking to prove that this happens all the time.
Maybe I’m just a big dork, but I found the results staggering and fascinating.
149 times from 1992 to 2007, a team’s final record was different from that of the previous year by 3 or more.
Teams continued on the same trajectory to the tune of 4 or more wins 6 times. Example: The Dolphins from 2005-07 went from 9 wins to 6 wins to 1 win. Same trajectory, minus 3, then minus 5.
Same trajectory, but only by 2-3 wins: 12 times, and one 3.5 case where a tie was involved. Example: The Panthers from 1996-98: 12 wins, 7 wins, 4 wins.
Holding steady, with a change of plus or minus only one win, or no change at all: 33 cases. Example: Seattle from 2005-07: 13, 9, 10.
Reverse trajectory, only by 2-3 wins: 45 times, including two 2.5 cases where ties were involved. Example: Dallas from 2003-05: 10, 6, 9.
Reverse trajectory, by 4 wins or more; 52 times!
Here’s the same information, in perhaps an easier-to-read form (assume negative numbers mean reverse trajectory):
4+: 6 times, or 4%
2 thru 3.5: 13 times, or 9%
-1, 0, or +1: 33 times, or 22%
-2 thru -3: 45 times, or 30%
-4: 52 times, or 35%
What does this mean? Well, it means that NFL win totals look more like random number generators than you might expect. If you generated random numbers from 0-16 over and over again, and recorded every time the number was different from the previously generated number by 3 or more, the most probable outcome would be that the following number would be different from its predecessor by 3 or more in the opposite direction. Anyone who’s actually taken a probability class want to back me up on this? It makes logical sense.
Great, says Curly or some other wiseacre. You’ve told us nothing then. Win records tend to follow probability rules.
Ah, but we’re not talking about random numbers. That’s what makes this interesting. We’re talking about football teams, with real human beings suiting up and playing games dependent on skill and very little random chance, unless the game goes into overtime and there’s a coin toss. Conventional wisdom says that a team, say the Browns, who vastly improved this past season, will build on that improvement. But my statistics say otherwise. According to the trends of the years since 1992, Cleveland is 65% likely to finish at 8-8 or worse.
As the offseason continues, soon we’ll get into predictions season, where everyone who writes about the NFL for fun or for profit will share their picks for each team’s record. You’ll find they look very similar to 2007’s final rankings, with a boost to the writer’s home team and whoever made the biggest splash in free agency (last year it was the 49ers winning the NFC West for a lot of people). But if I’m right, things will end up looking a lot more like 2006. Great news if you’re a Ravens, Jets, Chiefs, or Rams fan. Not so hot if you dig the Packers, Browns, Bucs, or (like me) Redskins.
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See...that's what we can count on you for Dan...
Me, I give the world rambling, home-spun "wisdom...you...numbers...and not just stats, but these voodoo numbers. I love it.
Josh
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Not trying to be one of those wiseacres like Curly..but i think your in depth numbers and quantum physics may just prove you wrong in the fact that i think the Ravens may be a little better..but the Jets,Chiefs and Rams will most likely still suck.
Harry Callahan
Total Comments (10043)
Left alone again.....hello..hello..ah he must have run off again.
Harry Callahan
Total Comments (10043)
Ah, Dan. ...love that voodoo that you do.
I've totally thought about the random-ness of records too, and it's nice to see the numbers. It makes sense though. Even if, like you said, these are football teams with real human players and objective realities such as free agency, etc., still, it's football. Tyree's catch in the SB would be exhibit A in proving that this game can turn on the smallest of factors. And, of course, it's exactly that "who would've ever seen THAT coming" aspect of the game that we love.
It's also what makes coaches tear their hair out.
It's also why I think all successful players or coaches should just be simply thankful when they wind up being winners. ...which is why I've always thought guys like Mercury Morris or Red Aurbach are such turds. It's like, "yeah, you were a winner. Yeah, you played or coached well. But, y'know, you were also just lucky to be in the right place at the right time."
Curly Lambeau
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So, how does it happen that this gets 2,500 views and only 5 comments?
...and, to answer all y'all's unstated question: yes, I did indeed call Red Aurbach a turd.
Curly Lambeau
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I guess you could say that for just about anybody being in the right place at the right time Curly..i liked Red Aurbach..your a turd..yeah you..HEE ! HEE !
Harry Callahan
Total Comments (10043)
Red Auerbach..NBA coaching pioneer that won 9 NBA championships..a turd ?...okay dude.
Harry Callahan
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Sorry, Harry. I respect YOU, but I have issues with Red. It always cheezed me off the way he would come out of the woodwork every few years dissing some modern coach or player. Like when he went after Phil Jackson, claiming that his titles weren't as good as Red's because Phil had Michael Jordan and Kobe and Shaq. I mean, setting aside, the "Russell and Cousey weren't exactly chopped liver" argument, there's this issue raised in Dan's blog.
i.e. Take any player or coach who is successful, and it's very easy to imagine a scenario in which they'd be failures. Michael Jordan irreparably tears up his knee. Belichick takes the Jets job instead of New England. Favre never gets traded from Atlanta and therefore never has the "reality check" moment (not to mention that he wouldn't have gotten Holmgren as a coach or Ron Wolf as a GM who went out and got him team-mates like Reggie, Sean Jones, Andre Rison, Eugene Robinson, etc, etc) My point is, everybody can succeed or fail depending greatly on luck.
So, to go out and defend one's legacy as if it's something that one is entitled to, it's just not right in my opinion. You're free to disagree, but I firmly believe that people generally speaking - but especially atheletes - should be thankful for success and grateful when people honor them, NEVER hoarding credit or reputation. Like, I say, that's how I feel about it.
Curly Lambeau
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I get ya man..he was a cantancerous old coot that's for sure but if we only had them or didnt have them scenarios that Dan has cooked up could go on forever..if Doug Flutie fell down when he was chucking that hail mary..what would have happened ? it's sort of goofy if you think about it...
Harry Callahan
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I always laugh when you see someone on here Curly that goes.."If Brady didn't have Moss..they wouldn't be putting up these ridiculous numbers"..well he does and they did...so what is this person trying to get at ? I don't know i think it's funny.
Harry Callahan
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Yeah, I hear ya. Even better was when they'd say about Barry Sanders, "well, if you take away that 80 yard run he had, then he only averaged 3.5 yards per carry." ....yeah, but you're taking away an 80 yard run that he had and why would you do that?
Curly Lambeau
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Exactly...If Lance Armstrong got a flat tire and broke his collarbone..or if Mike Tyson didn't enjoy chewing peoples ears off he would have won..too funny.
Harry Callahan
Total Comments (10043)
If we would have scored more points than the other team we would have won
Buddhasillegitimatec…
Pacific , MO
Total Comments (2678)
That's a really interesting analysis, why don't we see more of this on sport's sites? The professional writers usually don't take things like this into account and their playoff teams are almost always a duplicate of the previous season when the turnover rate for playoff teams is pretty high.
jho
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