• 07:39 AM ET  03.07
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Every year heading into the season, fans (and especially fantasy baseball owners) predict big seasons from prospects who had some success the year before.

Remember back to the 2006 off-season and think about all the hype surrounding Jeremy Hermida, the young outfielder for the Florida Marlins. He had been called up late in the 2005 season and took the league by storm, hitting 4 homeruns in 41 at-bats, including a pinch hit grand slam in his first major league plate appearance. Entering the 2006 season, he was a lock to be in the starting outfield for the Marlins, and was drafted by many fantasy owners (myself included) as the sleeper of the year. We all seemed to forget he was only 22 years old.

What resulted was an average season for a 22 year old, but one that was riddled with injuries and was well below the lofty expectations that had been set for such a young player. Now, Hermida is all but forgotten on the lists of young players to watch for over the next decade, despite his .296/.369/.501 line this past season as a 23 year old. In fact, that would win rookie of the year most years, except it was Hermida's third season in the majors.

In honor of this achievement, I am creating the Jeremy Hermida Award, which I will give each pre-season to the prospects who are immensely talented, but are over hyped and thus prime candidates for a letdown once the season actually begins. In order to be eligible, players must have played less than one full season in the majors, and be either highly touted as prospects or constantly labeled as fantasy sleepers.

This is not an insult to the player; in fact, the player must be very talented to be eligible for the award. Some of the best known cases in the past are Felix Hernandez and Jose Reyes, two of the best players in the game. Instead, it is a reflection on us, the fans, who overrate players based on a small sampling of experience, in hopes that we can have the steal of our fantasy draft. We are all guilty of this at one point or another.

Here are the nominees for 2008:

10 - Carlos Gomez

Who knows if Gomez will break camp with the Twins, but if he does, someone will pick him up in your league, hoping he will at least steal some bases. Even if Gomez is the Opening Day centerfielder, I'd bet the house that he doesn't get more than 250 at-bats for the season, for any number of reasons.

9 - J.R. Towles

A classic case. Towles is the number one prospect in the Astros depleted farm system, thus carrying with him a great deal of hope for Astros fans. He also batted .375 in a late September call-up with the big club, and plays at a notoriously weak fantasy position where owners will grasp at any hope for offensive production. Combine these forces with the fact that he is virtually being handed a starting job, and we have a prime candidate for unrealistic expectations.

8 - Kyle Kendrick

Kendrick has the most experience of any player on our list, having started a playoff game and pitched a good portion of 2007. He still does not have a full major league season under his belt, yet is being handed the number three spot on the rotation of a potential playoff team. Not just his fantasy owners, but the entire city of Philadelphia might be primed for a letdown if Kendrick cannot repeat his 2007 success.

7 - Asdrubal Cabrera

The easiest way to become overrated is to be a starter for a playoff team at a young age. 159 relatively successful career at-bats were enough for Eric Wedge to give Cabrera the nod in October, and most of the nation noticed he was there, even if they didn't notice that he batted a combined .217 in two postseason series.

6 - Geovany Soto

Same exact situation as Towles, but Soto is a more likely candidate to fall short of expectations for two reasons: (1) the Cubs should be much better and more popular than the Astros, so he'll in the spotlight; and (2) his minor league track record is not nearly as established. In fact, Soto's only truly successful minor league season was 2007, when he hit 26 homeruns, despite hitting just 25 in his first five seasons in the minors.

5 - Phil Hughes/Ian Kennedy/Joba Chamberlain

The chances of the entire Big Three having a successful 2008 are slim. There are just too many variables. All three are likely to have strong careers, but at least one of them will struggle this season. Which one will it be?

4 - Jay Bruce

Even when you are the reigning minor league player of the year, it is tough to meet expectations when you have no major league experience. For example, Bruce was drafted in the 13th round of the DugoutCentral fantasy draft, despite never having been in the majors.

3 - Evan Longoria

Same situation as Bruce, taken 4 rounds later in our draft. They are two of the most talented prospects in the game and could both be starting on Opening Day, but it would be a true accomplishment if either played an entire major league season with any kind of success in 2008.

2 - Clay Buchholz

Pitching a no-hitter in your second major league start is enough to create some hype. It was enough that I drafted him this year (in the 13th - one pick ahead of Bruce nonetheless). He has a lot of upside now that Curt Schilling has cleared a spot for him in the Red Sox rotation, but let's not forget he's only 23.

1 - Justin Upton

You don't get more hype than being on the cover of ESPN the Magazine. Not to mention he's an Upton, so he naturally has the comparison to his brother, who finally (at age 22) showed us what a stud he is. Justin is just as talented, and will have every chance to be a big league regular at the age of 20. Who knows if he's ready? The Rays tried it with brother BJ at the same age with mixed results, until he broke out last year. Upton went in the same round of our draft as Bruce and Buchholz, so the expectations are clearly there, but he's still only 20 years old. If Justin follows the same career path as BJ, I'm renaming this the Upton Brothers Award.

By Jeff Moore of www.DugoutCentral.com.

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