FanNation - The Republic of Sport

I'm really not sure what to expect out of the Bravos this year.  When it comes to assessing team potential in baseball, I am certainly less confident than when analyzing strengths and weaknesses in football.  Young, talented players in baseball often get less media attention in baseball, so I don't get as much information ahead of time.  Plus, baseball has so many unpredictable elements with pitchers or hitters getting in zones or going through dry spells for seemingly no reason. But I digress.

 So, what looks good?  It all begins with pitching, and well, they've got the AARP approved pitching rotation. But a couple of the "geezers" probably have a spot in Cooperstown.  Provided they still have it in the tank, they have been if anything, dependable. 

Smoltz- 40 years old, but the man is a pro.  He does what it takes to help the team win.  He works hard.  And while his fastball slowly declines, it seems his pitching craftiness picks up the slack.  If that continues, he's still a solid start. We'll never forget 1996.  The man was a beast.  He won 24 games. He had an ERA of 2.94.  He only walked 55 people in 253 innings.  That's 2 per 9.  He struck out 9.8 per 9 innings.  Yes, that's almost 10 k's per 9 innings.  He had 276 strikeouts that year. Opponents batted a tiny .216 against him.  1999 was his last full season before he had surgery. In 01 he only pitched 5 starts.  His numbers now are similar if not better than then.  Oppnents hit .249 against him last year and he had 197 k's with only 47 walks.  You'd take those numbers from almost anyone.  He only gave up 71 runs in 205 innings- a 3.11 ERA.  Other than 1996, these numbers compare with his from 1995 through 1999.  He's a good bet in my book.  Maybe 12-16 game winner depending on clutch hitting and his durability.

Hudson- Been better than average to great since, well, pretty much always.  I see no reason why that shouldn't continue if he stays healthy.  He's only 32- practically a spring chicken.  Ok, 13 and 12 with an ERA near 5 in 2006 would probably be closer to average than above average, but he had 141 k's that year also.  It was a bad year for him personally on the mound, but to have an ERA near 5 and still win 13 games shows some grit.  That year saw his walk totals spike 3.3 per 9 innings, but thankfully, last year he had things back under control giving up 2.1 walks per 9, tying his career best.  Only 53 walks in 224 innings.  I see no reason for him to go less than 15 wins, but on the diamond, things don't always have a reason.  

 Glavine- 41 years old and looks younger than me.  I'm not sure about this one.  He's been outstanding, and had his best years here in Atlanta.  On the one hand, his style lends itself to a long pitching career.  On the other, he looked as if he could potentially be on the decline at times last year.  The question bugging me is: will being back in Atlanta around Smoltzie and Chipper reignite some (admittedly subtle) fire in Tommy boy that allows him to get back into a 15-20 game winning groove? Or is his acceptance of lower pay to be closer to family a sign that the baseball fire has burned out and this is just a transition to retirement?  Are we looking at a 10 game winner at the end of his career?  Or will a Glavine-Smoltz friendly competition allow them both find a wellspring of youthful excitement and create a Hollywood storybook season, filled with the inspiring efforts of two old friends, reunited as their careers wind down and showing these young 'uns (really young in Atlanta) why the Atlanta pitching roster was spoken about in hushed tones of fear and awe back in the glory days.

Last Year he had a 13-8 record with a 4.45 ERA.  Glavine hasn't had an ERA under 3 since 2002-His last year in Atlanta.  A year he won 18 games.  He's been around the 3.5 mark with a couple of 4.5 years thrown in while pitching for the mets.  But perhaps NYM underachievement is contagious and now he is away.  Good Sign- His walk numbers are consistent with what they have been his entire career: usually under 70, around 3 per 9 innings.  Bad sign- His strikeout numbers are trending downward and his runs given up are trending upward, which to me may indicate a drop-off in his ability to dig deep and get that crucial out with runners on.  That strikeout-when-the-bases-are-loaded-with-one-out situation.   But he may still be trying which would also explain why his home-runs allowed is up.  But overall, the stat fluctations are within reason.

Hampton- I don't know why, but I've always felt good with Mike Hampton on the mound.   The 2.5 seasons he has actually pitched for the Braves in the 5 years since he's been here he only put up pretty good numbers.  He had his flash of brilliance back in 1999 with Houston- a season he won 22 games and the only season he had an ERA under 3.0.  It would be unreasonable to expect a 20 game winner with an ERA under 3 as the 4th guy in your rotation. Long-time Braves fans were spoiled in that respect in the past.   But he has been a solid pitcher.  He won 14 games in '03 and 13 in '04.  Then in '05, having one of his better seasons, with a 3.5 ERA, and only 3 losses in his first 12 games, we lost Mike.  Now it's 2008 and we're hoping to see him regain some form.  I like him as the 4th guy in the rotation.  He's been consistant around the 10 to 15 wins mark most of his career with a couple of early exceptions and 2002 in Colorado which seems to be an anomaly.  If he is a 10 game winner at 4th in the rotation, he's a solid number 4 guy.  If he wins 15 at number 4, it's a bonus.  If he struggles after the first 4 or 5 starts of the regular season, well, we've got some impressive youngsters who may deserve a look.  I just feel like Mike has the ability to surprise everyone with a good season.  We'll see.  

 The Fifth Spot.  It's to be determined. But right now, Jair Jurrjens may have more than just a name that looks strange.  Apparently his pitches look strange to opposing batters.  I know spring training is a long way from playing every day with the big boys, but all I can say is wow.  He has pitched 9 innings this spring.  That's the second most on the team.  He has an ERA of 1.00.  Again, he has an ERA of 1.00.  He gave up one run in the first inning of his first game.  That's it.  It's been lights out since.  He has 4 k's and 2 walks.  And a pretty good group of pitchers around him to give him advice.  Especially since he is more a contact pitcher than a strikeout pitcher.  Could Glavine be getting an early start on a career as a pitching coach?

 So let's consider the top 4 first.  If we take the average wins over each of their last 3 full seasons, the top four combine to give a total average of about 54 wins and 38.3- call it 39 losses.  That would account for 93 out 162 games.  So 69 games are unaccounted for.  If Jurrjens or whoever the 5th starter is can go 15 and 10, that would account for another 25 games, leaving 44 undecided adn a record of 69-49.  If the 5th place starter goes 10-15, then our record would be 64-54.  Above .500, but likely not comfortably in the lead for a division title.  A 10-10 season for number 5 would leave us at 64-49 and place more responsibility on the hitters winning some of those undecided games for us.  So I like the chances of us having a record above .500 this year just based on the pitching.  Especially if our 5th place starter comes through.  Our bullpen and line-up will play big role in the undecided games, and will be the topic of my next Braves post.  Let me know what you think about the chances of these starters staying healthy and having what "typical" seasons.  I may dig a little deeper into the pitcher W-L thing a little more, but this post is long enough now- so talk amongst yourselves.