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Mil Town Proud
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Week 12 Standings:

  1. Cam's Newton - 9-3 (1205.50)
  2. Will Starch You - 7-5 (1275.18)
  3. A Real Piece of Work - 7-5 (1254.44)
  4. MF's New Mexicans - 7-5 (1220.24)
  5. Like I Care - 7-5 (1204.76)
  6. The Low Metabolisms - 7-5 (1183.58)
  7. California Dreamin' - 5-7 (1034.92)
  8. Rams Never Happened - 4-8 (1131.32)
  9. Welfare Bears - 4-8 (977.90)
  10. Texas Desparados - 3-9 (1034.28)

All of the bye weeks are behind us. We now have two weeks to sort out the final playoff seedings, with the four team playoff starting in week 15.

THE NUMBER 1 SEED 

First things first, Cam's Newton still isn't a lock for the playoffs, even though they hold the #1 seed at the moment.

Why, you ask? Well, as you can see, they currently have the 4th highest point total of the season. Now, 15 - 50 points over a twelve week season may be splitting hairs, true, but the next two opponents for Cam's Newton are MF's 7-5 New Mexicans and yours truly, a Real Piece of Work.

Where the point differential really comes into play is in playoff tiebreakers, if Cam's Newton loses out, and Will Starch You, A Real Piece of Work, MF's New Mexicans, and Like I Care each win out, its very possible that Cam's Newton misses the playoffs based on points scored.

THE CONTENDERS 

Now, I briefly touched on the others in playoff contention, but I'll run down their remaining schedules as well.

Will Starch You finishes the season with DJ's California Dreamin' and UBP's Texas Desparados. Yankees fan is an easy favorite in both match-ups, and likely THE team to beat in the playoffs, provided Frankenstein stays upright.

A Real Piece of Work finishes with UBP and Twitter Dave. Winning out, while remaining #2 in total points scored will guarantee a playoffs spot, although that Week 14 match-up might be the most important regular season game of the year, depending on what happens in MF's-Twitter Dave's week 13 matchup.

MF's New Mexican's playoff life will likely be determined this weekend. A win will allow them to keep pace with the other 7-5 teams. As the third highest scoring team (albeit by a mere 15 points) the New Mexicans are in a comfortbable position for the postseason based on tiebreakers, provided they can just win-out. Their week 14 match-up is a favorable one against Nerb's Rams Never Happened.

The first team on the outside looking in, BM's Like I Care had gone 0-2 since the last blog, but bounced back for a huge win last weekend. The line-up beyond Megatron and Jamaal Charles is supect, but those two alone can combine for 50-60 points in a single week. They finish with Welfare Bears and California Dreamin', two of the three lowest scoring teams in the league, which all but assures that they'll win out and finish at 9-5.

Random Guy's Low Metabolisms has a favorable schedule with Nerb and Outlaw remaining, but faces an uphill battle in the tiebreakers. At 1183.58 points scored, Random Guy trails each of the aforementioned in points, by at least 20. I like Random Guy's chances of running the table, but think he'll find himself on the outside of the playoffs, looking in.

THE SPOILERS

It has to be said, DJ's 5-7 California Dreamin' squad isn't officially eliminated from the playoffs. All they need is three of the above 7-5 teams to lose out, while defeating YF and BM and making up the 90 or so points necessary to swing the tiebreaker in their favor. It has a snowball's chance in hell, but it needed to be mentioned. As I see it, both YF and BM should roll in their match-ups.

Rams Never Happened at 4-8 are the highest scoring squad among the non-contenders, and any team matching up against ADP has to be a little nervous. Nerb's chances of pulling the upset are much better against Random Guy in week 13 than against MF in week 14.

Welfar Bears are also 4-8, but trail Nerb by about 140 points. A lineup including Stafford, Dez Bryant, and Tony Gonzalez should be capable of scaring an opponent, but the inconsistent production of players like Ridley and Hartline and DeAngelo Williams are holding this team back. I don't see this team topping BM in week 13 or Random Guy in week 14.

Bringing up the rear, UBP's Texas Desparados face the league's top two scoring teams to finish the season. Of course, Romo and the Cowboys lighting up the scoreboard against Oakland or Chicago could make things interesting for myself or YF, its not likely to be enough to overcome the more well rounded rosters of either.

Conclusion

I see this league shaking out like this:

Cam's Newton pulls a Romo and chokes its way out of the playoffs and the seeding shake out like so:

  1. Will Starch You - 9-5
  2. A Real Piece of Work - 9-5
  3. MF's New Mexicans - 9-5
  4. Like I Care - 9-5
  5. Cam's Newton 9-5

I bet against them three weeks ago as the team most likely to miss the playoffs, and I'll stick with that prediction one more time. A week 13 match-up against Seattle and a week 14 match-up against the Panthers could be enough to stifle Brees and Graham production and bounce Cam's Newton from the playoff picture.

Discuss.

November 26, 2013  10:26 AM ET

Fixed an error in the conclusion. It should make sense now.

November 26, 2013  10:31 AM ET

Makes perfect sense.

I was ahead of MF into the 3rd quarter.

I'm proud my season is proving as futile as the Cowboys! WOOOO, reality football rocks!

November 26, 2013  10:34 AM ET
QUOTE(#2):

Makes perfect sense.I was ahead of MF into the 3rd quarter.I'm proud my season is proving as futile as the Cowboys! WOOOO, reality football rocks!

I can't knock your method, you're rooting for guys you would normally root for.

My only suggestion for the future would be to draft: Bryant, Murray, Romo, Witten in that order. While Romo scores more, Bryant has greater value compared to other receivers than Romo does to other QBs.

November 26, 2013  11:03 AM ET

hate hate hate

November 26, 2013  11:11 AM ET
QUOTE(#4):

hate hate hate

Ha. Don't know why, I just see your team susceptible.

November 26, 2013  11:36 AM ET

**** **** ****!!!!

That's all, folks.

November 26, 2013  11:56 AM ET

My three losses were to Will Starch You (2), Like I care(5) and California Dreaming(7).
My last 3 wins were over 25+ points.

I have a 2 game lead- with 2 to go.

Will Starch You 0-1
A Real Piece of Work 1-0- with 1 to go
MF's New Mexicans - 1-0 with 1 to go
Like I Care - 0-1
The Low Metabolisms - 2-0

On Yahoo Projections- I go 1-1 to win the league with a 10-4 record. With a 4 way tie for 2-5 place.

November 26, 2013  02:48 PM ET

Quick tangent: Random Guy has had the easiest schedule by far.

I just looked up the splits people had against winning teams (top 6, including themselves) and the bottom four.

Myself, I've had 7 games against winning teams (Dave, YF, BM, MF, Random Guy) and 5 against the bottom 4 teams. I'll finish with 8 games against winning teams versus 6 against the losing teams.

Twitter Dave will finish with 8 games against the top 5 (including the final two games), 6 games against the bottom 4.

YF will finish with 7 against the top 5, 7 against the bottom 5.

MF will finish with 7 against the top 5, 7 against the bottom 4.

BM will finish with 7 against the top 5, 7 against the bottom 4.

Random Guy will finish with 6 games against the top 5, 8 against the bottom 4.

November 26, 2013  02:50 PM ET
QUOTE(#8):

Quick tangent: Random Guy has had the easiest schedule by far.

I just looked up the splits people had against winning teams (top 6, including themselves) and the bottom four.

Myself, I've had 7 games against winning teams (Dave, YF, BM, MF, Random Guy) and 5 against the bottom 4 teams. I'll finish with 8 games against winning teams versus 6 against the losing teams.

Twitter Dave will finish with 8 games against the top 5 (including the final two games), 6 games against the bottom 4.

YF will finish with 7 against the top 5, 7 against the bottom 4.

MF will finish with 7 against the top 5, 7 against the bottom 4.

BM will finish with 7 against the top 5, 7 against the bottom 4.

Random Guy will finish with 6 games against the top 5, 8 against the bottom 4.

Fixed.

November 26, 2013  11:39 PM ET
QUOTE(#8):

Quick tangent: Random Guy has had the easiest schedule by far.I just looked up the splits people had against winning teams (top 6, including themselves) and the bottom four.Myself, I've had 7 games against winning teams (Dave, YF, BM, MF, Random Guy) and 5 against the bottom 4 teams. I'll finish with 8 games against winning teams versus 6 against the losing teams.Twitter Dave will finish with 8 games against the top 5 (including the final two games), 6 games against the bottom 4.YF will finish with 7 against the top 5, 7 against the bottom 5.MF will finish with 7 against the top 5, 7 against the bottom 4.BM will finish with 7 against the top 5, 7 against the bottom 4.Random Guy will finish with 6 games against the top 5, 8 against the bottom 4.

Nobody cares Bro.

November 26, 2013  11:44 PM ET

RIP: DJ's FF season.

November 27, 2013  12:03 AM ET

*Pours out some liquor*

November 27, 2013  12:30 AM ET

Awesome. Really appreciate you putting the time and effort into these things, Gus. I enjoy reading them every time.

November 27, 2013  12:32 AM ET

Damn...New Orleans has Seattle and Carolina upcoming? It'll take a minor miracle for twitterDave to pull this one out.

Which is pretty crazy considering Cam's Newton has been in the top spot seemingly all season long.

November 27, 2013  12:33 AM ET

And an astute call by Gus, predicting that a few weeks ago.

November 27, 2013  12:34 AM ET
QUOTE(#2):

Makes perfect sense.I was ahead of MF into the 3rd quarter.I'm proud my season is proving as futile as the Cowboys! WOOOO, reality football rocks!

Lol even the real Cowboys have been more successful than the Desperadoes.

To be fair I was worried for a split sec last weekend though...

November 27, 2013  12:35 AM ET
QUOTE(#3):

I can't knock your method, you're rooting for guys you would normally root for.My only suggestion for the future would be to draft: Bryant, Murray, Romo, Witten in that order. While Romo scores more, Bryant has greater value compared to other receivers than Romo does to other QBs.

Indeed.

November 27, 2013  12:37 AM ET
QUOTE(#7):

My three losses were to Will Starch You (2), Like I care(5) and California Dreaming(7). My last 3 wins were over 25+ points.I have a 2 game lead- with 2 to go. Will Starch You 0-1A Real Piece of Work 1-0- with 1 to goMF's New Mexicans - 1-0 with 1 to goLike I Care - 0-1The Low Metabolisms - 2-0On Yahoo Projections- I go 1-1 to win the league with a 10-4 record. With a 4 way tie for 2-5 place.

Mayhap...

But your squad is reliant on the Saints duo, and Seattle/Carolina are gonna present a real challenge for Brees and Graham.

November 27, 2013  12:40 AM ET
QUOTE(#8):

Quick tangent: Random Guy has had the easiest schedule by far.I just looked up the splits people had against winning teams (top 6, including themselves) and the bottom four.Myself, I've had 7 games against winning teams (Dave, YF, BM, MF, Random Guy) and 5 against the bottom 4 teams. I'll finish with 8 games against winning teams versus 6 against the losing teams.Twitter Dave will finish with 8 games against the top 5 (including the final two games), 6 games against the bottom 4.YF will finish with 7 against the top 5, 7 against the bottom 5.MF will finish with 7 against the top 5, 7 against the bottom 4.BM will finish with 7 against the top 5, 7 against the bottom 4.Random Guy will finish with 6 games against the top 5, 8 against the bottom 4.

You could make the case that Random Guy and Dave had had the two easiest schedules, going off points against.

Actually points against would indicate that Dave has in fact had the easiest schedule, since opponents have only scored 1017.24 points against him all season, as opposed to your and my teams, which lead the league in points against by a pretty wide margin.

 
November 27, 2013  12:41 AM ET
QUOTE(#10):

Nobody cares Bro.

Can't lie; I care.

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