FanNation - The Republic of Sport

Today at work I hit that point. Every sports fans has that point. A point during the offseason where your team made dramatic moves and you say to yourself "I really can't wait till (insert season here) starts." Blazer and Sonic fans our probrably feeling that right now.  That point officially set-in today when I notice on TV both ESPN and ESPNnews where simotaneously showing Roger Clemens against a Triple-A team. I quickly thought about all the other things in sports this weekend which includes a person dying, a star quarterback possibly invovled in a felony, actual MLB games, A home run chase, NBA playoffs, a NBA 1st teamer "demanding" a team how to run it, the Indy 500, Chuck Lidell Losing (didnt see that one), Duke lacrosse defying the odds, a Lebron James sighting, and somewhere in there some league is playing for something called the Stanley Cup. But for some reason my only outlets for happiness at work showed me a pitcher picthing against minor leagues. I'd rather see A.I. at practice.

I quickly tune my mind off of TV and quickly got swept away by thought of the next NFL season. Like many fans of the 49ers, I have been extremely happy with the progress they have made this off-season. They got 2 first round draft picks who will have immediate impacts. They signed Nate Clements, Tully Banta-Cain, and Michael Lewis to a D ranked 26th last season. The extended Frank Gore contract. Personally I had been ready for NFL season since winning in Denver but now i can actually say "I really can't wait till football season starts."

Then I began to think. Even when you tell yourself you can't wait in the back of your head you begin to think "What if it doesnt go as I thought." I'm sure Patriot fans are thinking that about Randy Moss. I'm sure Cleveland fans are thinking about that with Brady Quinn(espicially being a 1st rounder next season). I'm Sure that Boston Memphis and Milwalkee fans were thinking about that before the lottery. That little voice in the back of your head saying "everything may not be good."

With the 49ers I began thinking about the scenerios for this year. I Narrowed down to 6 scenerios for the team next season. Right now I have the Way To Much To Ask but I Would Love it scenerio(14-2, sweeping division, Winning Superbowl), The Highly Doubtful but Not Impossible scenerio(12-4, 5-1 in division, NFC champ game), My Prediction scenario (10-6, 4-2 in division, 1 playoff win), The Not Good but not Horrible Scenario,(7-9, 3-3 division, top 14 draft pick going to the Patriots), The What the Hell went Wrong Scerario,(5-11, 2-4 division, top 7 pick going to the Patriots) And the There Is No God Scerario (2-14, Sweep the Cards, Number 1 pick going to the Patriots).

I pretty much ruled out Number One. Number Two would be extremely nice but still a bit much to expect. And unless half the team catches malaria there no excuse for number six. But number three threw five aren't that far apart. If everything goes right as I expected the 49ers should be set with number three. If they lose a step due to losing Norv Turn and maybe have a injury here in there number four could also happen. If we get hit by the Injury bug and our draft picks fail to make the leap, all of 49er faithful will be asking "What the hell went wrong."

Thats were Alex Smith comes in. He is the main piece to the 49ers future puzzle. If he succeeds we will be looking at 10 wins(Drew Brees, Saints). If he bombs we could be looking at a very puzzling offseason(Daunte Culpepper, Dolphins).

Alex Smith was put in a very puzzling situation to begin with. He was put on a team where most of the fanbase had never had to worry about quartback. We always had Joe Montana(Football Equivalent of God, HOFer) or Steve Young(Won superbowl, HOFer) or Jeff Garcia(2-time Probowl, led Second Greatest Playoff comeback while on the 49ers). Somehow the football gods cursed the 49ers for previous success which led to them starting a combo of Ken Dorsey(Beat the cardinals in Overtime 2003-04) and Big Play Tim Rattay (ditto). At the time the fanbase was desperate for a quartback...But yet Alex Smith wasn't the answer. The entire 2003-04 college football season my eyes and other 49ers fans were tuning into USC games to see our Potential Next Franchise Quarterback. This time is was a guy we would take in and embrace unlike Montana, Young, and Garcia who were all either late-round draft picks or free agents. Matt Leinart was prime to be set up next espically after the national championship game. But he did the dumb thing and the 49ers were left with the Cal kid or the Mormon. They got the Mormon.

Alex Smith was unlucky also because of the quarterbacks draft the two years behind him and ahead of him. Phillip Rivers just went 14-2 last season, Eli Manning made the Playoffs, Ben Rosthisburger Won a Superbowl, J.P. Losman had a +5 TD/INT ratio last season, Vince Young was being Vince Young, Jay Cutler had a +4 TD/INT ratio his rookie year, and Matt Leinert shows some moments (though he was -1 TD/INT and was 4-7 as a starter). 

If you threw Alex Smith into that mix and ask a casual NFL fan to make a list of who they would draft first chances are Alex would be somewhere near the bottom. Thats where I have a problem. Because besides Eli Manning no one should be better than Alex Smith based on where he was drafted. But for the last two season Alex Smith have gotten the toddler treatment from 49ers fans, including myself.

From a talent standpoint at all the quartbacks I had just listed, Alex Smith has arguably had the worst supporting cast. The leading recievers for his rookie year includes Brandon Lloyd(never a 800-yard reciever) and Arnaz Battle (never a 700-yard reciever). The leading running back for the year was Frank Gore with 608 yards on only 127 carries. This previous season he had to deal Antonio AA Bryant, a Banged up VD, and an Eric Johnson on his way out the Door who missed 3 games due to injury. He has not had a lot to work with....

But still there were time that Alex did not help himself. Whether it was the 1 TD, 11Int rookie campaign(Scary Stat: Ryan Leaf  2 TD, 15 INT) that included a 8.5 qb rating against the colts, or the 27.4 qb rating egg he laid against the Chiefs this year. His Biggest Strides (The Thursday night Comeback against seattle, Winning in Denver keeping Denver out of the Playoffs) have often been Offset by another Setback (week 12-week14 this season, 48% completion rate, 3td/7INT ration, 0-3,).

But now is the time for Alex Smith with no excuses. Darrell Jackson gives him his first 1000 yard reciever and VD should be coming back full Strength. Lelie gives some hieght down near the Endzone and Jason Hill should work out nice in the slot. Frank Gore always is another big piece but even if something terrible happens(knocking on wood) to him I should expect Alex at this Point to be able to ride the ship. For Alex Smith needs to have expectations like those other quarterbacks selected around him. Anything less than 3200 yards and a 10+ Td/INT ratio should not be accepted by the 49ers. It shouldn't be so much to ask for our Number One Draft Pick. For he the biggest piece to either realizing expectations or asking myself at the end of the year "What the Hell went Wrong?"