FanNation

I know, this is a little late, but here are my AL East predictions.

1. Boston Red Sox - 95-67

The Boston Red Sox were in the Top 5 in the league last year in almost every offensive and pitching catagories.  Their offense will be good again.  Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz had "off years" and still combined for a .300+ average. 50+ homeruns, and 200+ runs batted in.  Dustin Pedroia, J.D. Drew, and Julio Lugu should all imrpove in their second year with the team.  This is a top five offense but the pitching staff, which is being led by Daisuke Matsuzaka right now who had a 4.00+ ERA last year, will not be great.  First of all, Curt Schilling might be out for the whole season and Josh Beckett will spend some time on the disabled list.  Yes, Clay Buchholz is a stud - or is he the stud of the future?  Anyway, I doubt he will become one of the best pitchers in the league this year.  The Sox still have Tim Wakefield but he is getting old.  This may all be putting to much pressure on second-year Dice-K (Matsuzaka).

Their bullpen will be good, Jonathon Papelbon is a fantastic closer and Hideki Okajima will be right there also, but Boston's playoff chances depends on the pitching this year.

X Factor - Will Matsuzaka be better than last year?  He was one of the best pitchers in the league in Japan, if not the best, and then he comes to America with huge expectations on him and has a 4.00+ ERA.  This year he will have even more pressure on him, leading the staff, and if he falters, so will the Sox.

2. Toronto Blue Jays - 89-73

The Blue Jays had high expactations for their offense last year after they picked-up Frank Thomas via free agency and re-signed Vernon Wells to a long term deal.  With already having Troy Glaus right there, some thought that the Jays would finish first.  All of these three players turned out to be busts.  Thomas hit 29 homeruns after hitting ten more the year before, Wells hit around .244 with limited power, and Troy Glaus hit under 30 homeruns with a weak average as well as being named a steroid user on the Mitchell Report.  The main part of their offense turned out to be the one they didn't expect, Alex Rios.  Rios has 30 homerun power and will have a chance to do that this year hopefully with an improved Thomas and Wells, as well as newcomers David Eckstein and Scott Rolen.  Shanon Stewart will alsi be taking over at left field.

The Blue Jays may have the deepest rotation in their division, but not the best.  Toronto's playoff hopes pretty much rest on only Roy Halladay.  Their bullpen will be able to hold leads with Chris Accardo setting-up.  As the rotation goes, A.J. Burnett will carry a big load.  He must do good and NOT get injured again.

X Factor - Will B.J. Ryan dominate after he gets back from the DL?  Ryan had an ERA of over 12.00 in three save situations last year, none of them resulting in saves, and went on the DL soon after with an injury.  He will be out for some of this season and when he gets back, he must do good to avoid losing his job to talented relievers in the bullpen.

3. Tampa Bay Rays - 82-80

The Tampa Bay "Rays" changed their name this off-season and now I hate the name I liked before.  Too much poetry.  Anyways, the Rays shored up some of their pitching problems this season, trading Delmon Young out of a crowded outfield to Minnesota for young Matt Garza, who had an ERA south of 3.90 last year.  Scott Kazmir and Scott Sheilds will be aces as usual and prospect David Price could come around in the middle of the season.  One of the question marks is letting Edwin Jackson into the rotation, rather than keep him in his more comfortable spot, the bullpen.  Speaking of the bullpen, Tampa was terrible in that section last year.  They got Troy Percival out of retirment to close for them.  A good start, but Percival is older and might not be in best form.

Tampa's offense impresses me for such a young team.  They have a good outfield led by Carl Crawford and have a surprisngly very good infield with Akinori Iwamura, a japanease import from last year, Evan Longoria, a young prospect, Carlos Pena, a 46 homerun man, and newly acquired Jason Bartlett.  Now about their bullpen again . . .

X Factor - How quickly can Troy Percival get back in to shape?  He has been lazy for a few years now and now must get back on the diamond and start saving some games.

4. New York Yankees - 79-83

A once doiminant team will be battling to keep over .500 this year.  Their team has became very old and the three key pieces of their offense last year, Alex Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, and Derek Jeter, are out of their prime.  I wouldn't expect Posada to hit over .330 again this year, his career best before that was .287.  Jason Giambi is a perenial injury candidate, Johnny Damon had a bad year in 2007, Bobby Abrea; read Damon.  The only bright spot for the next few years in this offense is Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano, two both promising players who will probably hit .300 this year with 30+ combined homeruns.

The Yankees pitching is full of young FUTURE aces, they won't help much this year.  Their top 3 starters, Chen Ming-Wang, Mike Mussina, and Andy Pettitte are all getting old and aren't the same, all had ERAs of over 3.70.  Putting Joba Chamberlain at relief again instead of putting him at closer and letting go uf Mariano Rivera was a dumb move as well.

X Factor - Will Joba Chamberlain be great this year?  Last year was just a late-season call-up, he didn't even have enough games to become rookie of the year.  He had a .38 ERA last year but have you ever heard of a fluke?

5. Baltimore Orioles - 54-108

The Baltimore Orioles were very stupid this season (no offense fans).  First off, they traded Miguel Tejada, the shortstop who has been their best offensive player for the last few years, to the Houston Astros.  Next, they traded pitching ace Erik Bedard to the Seattle Mariners for a few average prospects and Adam Jones.  Jones is one of the top prospects in the league and one day, he could possibly be a 30-30 player . . . but not now.  Nick Markakis will be the key part of this offense this season and even though the Orioles are going to be bad, the pressure is on him to not be the joke of the league which they have a chance of doing.  Aubrey Huff no longer holds that burden, after hitting 34 homeruns a few years ago, now he is just some average old guy.  Brian Roberts, who had 50 steals last year, is good and he will keep the O's into the Top 5 Teams with the most stolen bases.

I don't recognize anyone on Baltimore's pitching staff - literaly.  Other than opening day starter Jeremy Guthrie (3.70 ERA), no other starting pitcher that recorded at least 100 innings last year had an ERA of under 4.90.  They are also counting on George Sherrill, a player who has NEVER been a closer, close . . . that just about sums it up.

X Factor - Where is the O's starting pitching?  Daniel Cabrera, Steve Trachsel and Brian Burres, the bottom three pitchers in the rotation, had a combined ERA of 5.47 last year, almost as bad as the last place Florida Marlin's bottom three rotation players who had a combined ERA of 5.64.  I would suggest trading George Sherrill to the Detroit Tigers for a pitcher such as Nate Robertson and then moving Jamie Walker to closer.  They need to take a risk with such a bad rotation.