FanNation - The Republic of Sport

Well, we've had 8 games to assess how the Braves look this season.  Admittedly, that is not enough ascertain the strengths and weaknesses of this team to any reasonable degree, and certainly not enough (for me anyway) to make comfortable predictions about how they will fare come the season's end.  But, comments on what we've seen, moments that make us optimistic and those aspects that make us cringe are, I believe, perfectly valid.

 It's been a bit of a wild start. 

The Good:  We swept the rain-shortened first series with the Mets.  Glavine is pitching like it's 1998.  Jurrjens has been solid.  We're still ranked 2nd in the National League in runs scored and 6th in team BA.  We're 12th in the major leagues in errors. (Not great.  We have 5 errors which is average so far.  But overall, we're slightly above the middle of the pack.) Chipper is hitting .382 right now and both Escobar and Johnson are around .300. Smoltz still has a nasty slider.  Hudson looks to be on track early.  Moylan is doing a terrific job in relief with a 1.93 ERA

The Bad: We haven't been able to establish a presence with our bullpen- despite the talk of talent and potential there, it hasn't manifested itself consistently.  Teixeira seems to be living up to his "slow-starter" reputation only hitting .156 right now. Smoltz and Glavine, while outstanding in their performances, have been somewhat short on endurance.  Whether by physical limitations or managerial caution, those shortened 5-6 inning starts are going to take a toll on what is currently an uncertain bullpen.  We have lost 5 games and only won 3.  Having a losing record always goes in the "bad" category.  I acknowledge that all 5 have been by only 1 run, but that is a fact that can be viewed as positive (we're not being blown out and only minor adjustments should be able to shift these types of games to the "W" column) or a negative (We don't seem to be able to get it done in clutch situations and championship teams know how to win the close ones).  So I'll leave that up to the reader to decide.   

The Ugly: Mike Hampton is on the disabled list.  I can't even comment on this.  I'm just....Let's just move on.  Boyer has lost two games after coming in as a reliver and has an ERA of nearly 8.  I know the entire bullpen has an ERA over 5, but in only 4 appearances he has been the pitcher who must take responsibility for 2 losses. Yes, he has caused us to lose half the games he has appeared in.  Hopefully that will change, but right now it is definitely ugly.  Our first 4 losses came during the opposing team's last turn at the plate.  Not wanting to pile on the bullpen here, but that's shameful.  Oh, and our top minor league prospect just got a 50 game suspension for using HGH.  Hopefully it's not as bad as it sounds, but until we know more, it's just more ugly.

So, there's room for optimism.  However it keeps coming back to the bullpen.  Recently a comment on the Chop Chick blog on AJC.com mentioned the quote, "You win 60, you lose 60, it's the other 42 that make champions." This is very similar to something I mentioned in my previous Braves post.  In using the average wins and losses for our starting pitchers, I reached a similar number of wins, losses, and games undecided.  And really, that is the key.  I think on average, a major league team's starting rotation should win around 60 and lose around 60.  So what about the other games?  Well, frequently they're games that were losing propositions won by great offense, or winning propositions lost by poor pitching in relief. Winning propositions are only winning propositions if you have the lead.  The offense has done their part, whether in a slug-fest or pitching duel.  They shouldn't have to bail out a relief pitcher who just blew all the hard work the starter and hitters have already put in.  Losing propositions that are won by late-inning heroics I would consider a gift.  Still, they are more likely if the reliever keeps the game close.  Still, they could pitch perfectly and we we still take a loss.  But then it wouldn't count as an undecided game would it?  The type of undecided I haven't mentioned is when the starter comes out in a tie game.  In this case, it is absolutely a heads-up battle of the bullpens.  The bats will plate someone eventually.  And the team whose bullpen is most vulnerable will usually lose. 

What does this mean?  To get the share of the undecided games that will make your team a championship team, your batters must be able to bail out your starters after they leave while losing.  Your relief pitching must not blow winning propositions.  And in those tie-games that are undecided, your bullpen must be strong enough and deep enough to be competitive with most other teams.  The primary focus in two of these is the bullpen.  And the other, batters rallying to come back late, is made much more feasible if the bullpen keeps it close.  Poor starting pitching will kill a team, of course.  But a poor bullpen will kill even good starting pitching.  Great starting pitching is no guarntee of a club's success.  Bottom Line- Take care of the bullpen issues, and we could win this thing barring major injuries all around.