FanNation

When Pat Burrell had his break out season in 2002, Phillies fans had visions of the next Mike Schmidt in their dreams, and with good reason. Burrell had displayed his famed power the season before (his first full season in the majors), but the following year, he seemed to have figured out how to hit for average as well. Having just traded away his franchise player Scott Rolen for spare parts, Phillies general manager Ed Wade was desperate to show the fans that the organization was willing to make a commitment to winning by locking up its young core of potent hitters. Burrell was rewarded with an extremely back-loaded six year, $50M extension as he approached his first year of arbitration, essentially locking up his first three years of free agency. At the time, the deal was well received and Burrell looked to be well on his way to blossoming in Phillies red into his early thirties.

All that changed in 2003, when Burrell got off to a slow start batting only .223 through the end of April, and then, coupled with the pressures of a new contract and the boo birds in Philadelphia, watched his average dip even further. His average dropped below the Mendoza line, and as far into the season as the end of July, Burrell was still batting only .198. Only a “torrid” August and September in which he batted .225 and .240 respectively saved him from batting under .200 for a full season.

The always knee-jerk Philadelphia media and fans ripped both Wade for signing him to such a huge deal and Burrell for failing to make any sort of adjustments to the way the league seemed to have figured him out. Burrell’s even-keeled demeanor and lack of emotion made the always emotional Philadelphia fans think that he didn’t care about his failures (similar to what Eli Manning experienced in New York prior to winning a Super Bowl). An entire season of diving out of the way of fastballs on the inside corner and flailing helplessly at sliders away wore on both player and fans alike. Fans were already dreading the massive salaries loaded into the end of his contract.

Burrell bounced part of the way back in 2004, but after a hot start in April and May, he returned to his 2003 form for the remainder of the season and was repeatedly benched in September as the Phillies tried to stay in the Wild Card race. A final line of .257/24/84 was not what the Philadelphia faithful had in mind. Right or wrong, Burrell was also developing a reputation as not coming through in the clutch. Despite all his struggles, Burrell still managed to post an OPS plus of 107, largely in part to his superb eye at the plate.

With expectations for Burrell at an all-time low, he responded with an excellent 2005, far and away his best season since signing his extension. The average rose back up to .281 on the campaign (the second highest of his career) and the power returned as he posted 32 home runs and slugged over .500 for the second time in his career. His seventh place finish in MVP voting went largely unnoticed.

The 2005 season seemed to be a mirage however, as 2006 and 2007 saw Burrell regress back to his 2004 form. He displayed 30 HR power and high walk totals, but pedestrian batting averages and high strikeout totals. Those who watched Burrell on a consistent basis began to conclude that this was the ceiling for Burrell. He was a player with significant talent, but he had some serious flaws that would hold him back, the most significant of which was his inability to hit the ball to the opposite field and make adjustments. He continued to dive out of the way of fastballs on the inside corner and flail helplessly at sliders on the outer half.

Philadelphia fans and management alike counted down the days until the 2008 season was over and they would be out from underneath the weight of his now $14 million salary.

There are a couple of aspects, however, of Burrell’s career and his contract situation/impending free agency that are worth revisiting.

Burrell’s career thus far can be looked at through in two lights. The one side sees Burrell’s regression since his breakout season of 2002. Other than in 2005, he has only briefly resembled the player who signed such a large contract. The other side of the argument sees that despite his struggles, Burrell has still been largely productive during his Phillies career. Other than his disastrous 2003 season, Burrell has posted an OPS plus above league average every season, and has been over 120 since 2005.

Protractors say that he has tremendous on-base ability but detractors point out that he is a base-clogger once he is aboard. He possesses a strong and accurate arm in left field and is one of the best in the game at making strong throws to second base to hold hitters to a single, yet he covers almost no ground in the outfield and requires a defensive replacement (and usually pinch runner) in any late inning situation. He has excellent power, but has been labeled a mistake hitter who fails to make adjustments at the plate.

With his lack of speed and high on-base percentage, Burrell seemed to be destined to be the next designated hitter for the Oakland Athletics.

But all that could be changing with the start Burrell has had to the 2008 season. Burrell’s early numbers rival anybody’s in the league, but it is the way he has achieved them that has Philadelphia fans beginning to hope that perhaps he might have a few more years of reporting to work on Pattison Ave.

It is not often that you see a 31-year old make adjustments in his game, but whether because he’s in a contract year or just that the light finally went on, Burrell seems to have a whole new approach at the plate. Gone are the called third strikes where Burrell throws his hands up and his butt back as though the ball was about to hit him in the hip, only to have it catch the corner. Gone too are the wild swings and misses at sliders off the plate. Watching Burrell play, you can see him doing things differently, but the numbers also support what is happening.

So far in 2008, two numbers stand out as evidence of his adjustments. The first is his BB/K rate. Despite the outstanding patience he has shown throughout his career, his walk numbers have always been dwarfed by his high strikeout rates. His career BB/K ratio is 703/1,156 in 1,126 career starts. In 26 games this season he has 20 walks to19 K’s. The walk rate is up to 18.69 percent of plate appearances (up from 14.49%) and the K rate is down from 23.83 % of plate appearances to 17.75 percent of the time. This means he is laying off the sliders outside which break out of the zone – sliders he can’t hit anyway – and is swinging at the inside pitches which were in fact strikes.

The other number that stands out is the frequency with which he is pulling the ball. Burrell has always pulled the ball more frequently than league average, but he also hit the ball up the middle on a relatively frequent basis as compared to the rest of the league.

In 2008 however, that trend has also been reversed, as Burrell is actually pulling the ball even more so than he has gone up the middle, something abnormal for even the most heavily skewed dead pull hitters. A dead pull hitter trying to pull the ball even more is not usually a good equation, but with Burrell’s long swing and the book on him saying that he can be jammed inside, he does see a lot of pitches on the inner half. He is now swinging at those inside pitches which have stymied him throughout his career. Pulling these pitches (which is where Burrell has the most power) has helped his home run rate spike upwards as well.

So what does all of this mean for the future of Pat Burrell and the Philadelphia Phillies? While on the outside it seems like this is the standard contract year spike in production, those who watch Burrell see a player who has changed his complete approach. Even if he has “figured it out,” he will end 2008 as a slow 32-year old with chronic foot problems. Will a team give him another long term deal?

Burrell has always said that he loves playing in Philadelphia. Will he sign a shorter contract with the home team? Do they even want him? Do the fans?

These are the questions that will be answered as this season progresses. Burrell could just as easily be having a hot April bound to lull us into false hope only to watch him regress into the Burrell of old as soon as the calendar turns its page, but perhaps he has turned the page himself and has become a wiser hitter.

Every hero has his tragic flaw. For Burrell, once the hero in the hearts of Philadelphia fans, his chance to overcome his flaws seems to be upon him.