FanNation

So the Rays are in first place.

Everyone’s off-season sweetheart pick has come through thus far in tremendous fashion and to this point is the most polarizing story in baseball. Tampa supporters point out reasons why they will continue their success. Detractors point out why they are destined to fall back in to the pack as the season progresses.

Here are five reasons why they will continue to succeed, and five reasons why they won’t.

PRO-RAY

1. No Kazmir in April

One of the reasons for choosing the Rays at the beginning of the season was the three starters at the top of their rotation. Who would have picked them to be in first place after April knowing the “ace” of that group would have missed a month? His return prevents Jason Hammel from having to make any more starts and should only improve the Rays starting pitching.

2. Carl Crawford Is Still Warming Up

Crawford is not off to a terrible start, but he has yet to really get going. Crawford is the closest thing this team has to an established veteran leader (other than Troy Percival), and if he continues to get better as he has in every season thus far in his career, he will be the catalyst for this potent lineup.

3. Carlos Pena is Struggling

If you are a believer that Carols Pena’s 48 homers, Sliver Slugger winning season was for real, then you also know how important getting his batting average above its current state of .210 is for the Rays offensive production. His power has been there, but he needs to be on base more so the Rays have someone for Evan Longoria to drive in.

4. More Pitching Help on the Way

If Edwin Jackson regresses back to his career norm and Andy Sonnanstine’s ERA continues to hover around 5.00, the Rays have a deep collection of young pitchers in the minors close to being ready. They have already called up prospect Jeff Niemann to make one start, and they could test him more later in the summer. Perhaps the Rays can use these prospects to acquire pitching help closer to the trade deadline.

5. The Yankees are Finally Having a Down Year

Even though the Rays have improved steadily over the years, their record has not reflected their improvement because they face a constant barrage of difficult opponents. Playing in the AL East has certainly contributed to their hold on last place, but the division as a whole is down this season. The Yankees look like a .500 team, the Blue Jays have little offense to speak of and the Orioles are rebuilding. Only the Red Sox pose a significant threat this season.

ANTI-RAY

1. It’s still the AL East

For all the reasons listed above and more, the Rays still have their work cut out for them. The Yankees may be down, but they haven’t stayed down for very long in the past decade and are still a more talented team than most. The Blue Jays may not hit much, but they can pitch with anyone in the league, so they will be competitive nine nights out of 10. The Red Sox are still the Red Sox. Getting to the top of this division took the Rays 10 years. It won’t be any easier staying there.

2. Troy Percival is 38 Years Old

The bullpen has been one of the reasons for the Rays’ turnaround, and that strength has been led by veteran closer Troy Percival. In addition to being a great clubhouse leader and strong veteran stabilizer, he has also pitched extremely well. The question is can he keep it up? He is 38 and he “retired” only three seasons ago. He had a great season last year, but only threw 40 innings. The Rays will need him to far surpass that mark. How will he hold up?

3. Carlos Pena Might Have Been a Fluke

Count me as one of the people who didn’t think Carlos Pena would hit 46 home runs again but also did not want categorize him as a one-year wonder. Pena has always had some power, but his 2007 success (and subsequent contract extension) was a result of his power explosion and a batting average finally high enough that it didn’t offset his run production. On pace to hit 34 home runs this year (not an unexpected amount for Pena), that kind of production will not be enough to offset a batting average around his career average of .249. He will need to be more consistent for the Rays to stay on top.

4. Too Few Base Runners at the Top

The one and two hitters in the Rays lineup, second baseman Akinori Iwamura and Carl Crawford both have on base percentages of .322. That is not nearly high enough for the lineup to be productive. In order to make the most of B.J. Upton and Carlos Pena’s power behind them, they simply must be on base more consistently.

5. They’re Still the Rays

Let’s face it; the name is different, but how different are they? They are a feel good story so far, but they must be careful not to buy into their own hype. They currently walk a fine line between building their own confidence and getting too comfortable. They are new to this whole “first place” thing. How will they react? Teams that have always played the role of underdog sometimes struggle the first time they become the favorite. Teams haven’t always taken the Rays seriously, but you’d better believe they will take the “First Place Tampa Bay Rays” seriously. Being in first place puts a target on your back. The next few weeks will be the test to see if the name change was more than just a façade or if they really are still the same old Rays.