FanNation

I like Michael Bourn. His speed is phenomenal. If you haven’t had the opportunity to watch him race down the line on an infield grounder, you’re missing something. Not every fast runner is a good base stealer; some never learn to read the pitcher’s motion. Bourn has already mastered this art; he’s 36 of 39 in stolen base attempts for his career. There’s also no disputing that Bourn covers a tremendous amount of space in centerfield – a huge advantage in Houston’s Minute Maid Park. In Bourn the Astros possess a potentially great player.

Despite his talent, Michael Bourn is batting .181. Although he’s demonstrated an ability to draw walks, this pushes his on-base percentage to only .252. His OPS plus is a microscopic 38. Bourn’s inability to get on base has all but negated his speed; he’s 17 for 17 in stolen base attempts in 2008, yet he’s scored only 16 runs in 38 games played.

The causes for Bourn’s struggles are difficult to identify in light of his talent. Lately he seems to be getting better at bats but the hits aren’t falling. A quick glance at his statistics helps explain why this is.

Michael Bourn strikes out too often. He’s already struck out 37 times in 144 at bats – an acceptable number for a modern power hitter but excessive for a speed merchant. Bourn’s batting average when he puts the ball in play is .219, or 38 points higher than his current .181 mark. Last season, when Bourn batted .277, he was a .330 hitter on balls in play. Bourn needs to cut down on his strikeouts; he struck out often in the minor leagues (123 times in 2005, 100 in 2006) and has carried this habit to the majors. Speed is, obviously, useless when a batter fails to make contact, and thus Bourn robs himself of his greatest asset.

For speedsters, putting the ball in play isn’t enough. Bourn hits too many balls in the air; he’s batting .125 (4 for 32) on fly balls. Bourn is 14 for 59 (.237) on ground balls. Last season these numbers were .150 and .283.

To state the obvious, Bourn fits the classic pattern of a fast runner who needs to make contact and hit the ball on the ground with great frequency. Perhaps Bourn will develop (he only has 304 career plates appearances) into something more. His power may increase, although at 25 years old it may not increase much. Regardless, it’s clear what Bourn needs to do: make contact, bunt, and hit the ball on the ground.

It’s also clear what the Astros must do: they need to drop Bourn down in the lineup. Houston was saddled with poor leadoff men last year; Craig Biggio, the team’s primary leadoff hitter, posted a .285 on-base percentage. That was one reason Houston struggled to score runs in 2007. Of course, the Astros weren’t contenders in 2007 so they elected to give Biggio the plate appearances he needed to surpass the 3,000 hit mark.

This season, no one expected the Astros to contend, but they’ve posted a surprising 24-18 record and are only one-and-a-half games out of first place. More, this team is geared to win now. The Astros have some youngsters (Bourn, J.R. Towles and Hunter Pence) but the rest of the starters (including pitchers) are over 30 years old. The Astros, if they are to continue their surprising performance, cannot afford the luxury of letting Michael Bourn develop in the leadoff spot. They need men on base for Lance Berkman, Miguel Tejada and Carlos Lee.

Hunter Pence should be moved to the leadoff spot. He’s batting .286 with a .335 on-base percentage despite a horrible start (he hit .161 in the first 15 games of the season). A one-two punch of Pence and Kaz Matsui at the top of the order will give Houston’s big hitters more RBI opportunities.

Meanwhile, drop Bourn to eighth in the order (or even ninth, if you’re a Tony LaRussa advocate). He’ll still have the opportunity to develop without costing the Astros as many RBI opportunities. If Bourn can push his on-base percentage up into the .330 to .350 range he can be moved back to the leadoff position.

Some may argue that dropping Bourn down in the order may hurt his confidence. Going 0-for-5 as a leadoff hitter can’t be helping his confidence, either. Bourn’s confidence will emerge by keeping him in the lineup and by letting him run down fly balls in centerfield. He’ll also gain confidence as he goes around the league again, seeing pitchers for the second and third times in his short career. This will help him cut down on his strikeouts and raise his average. Maybe he’ll also learn to hit the ball on the ground more often; this too will raise his average as well as his confidence.

Michael Bourn has great potential, but potential doesn’t win games. Performance does. Houston can make an investment in the future by playing Bourn this season; they can also try to win today by lowering him in the order and moving Hunter Pence into the leadoff spot until Bourn proves he belongs there.