FanNation - The Republic of Sport

5/20/08

I'm usually not one to pat myself on the back, but not only did I go 4-4 with my Conference-Semi-Finals picks, 3 of the 4 series I predicted not only the winner but had the correct number of games, with the Celtics winning in 7 (while I said 5).

And with that, the final four of the NBA has arrived with two marquee matchups.

Eastern Conference Finals

(1) Boston Celtics vs. (2) Detroit Pistons

When it comes to the 2007-2008 Boston Celtics, lets start with the good.  In the postseason, the Celtics have been unbeatable at home, winning all 8 contests played in beantown.  Of course the fact that after only two rounds, they've even had 8 home games to play highlights the bad and the ugly, which is the fact that between Atlanta and Cleveland, the Celtics went a combined 0-6 on the road, against one very mediocre team in the Cavs, and a very talented but young and highly inexperienced Hawks team.  That being said, they were able to lock up home court advantage throughout the playoffs with their stellar play both at home and on the road during the regular season, and that has payed off with two game 7 victories.  Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce have both played well, while Ray Allen has simply not shown up.  The role players like James Posey and even P.J. Brown have made big contributions, and as a result, Doc Rivers continues to keep both his team alive and his job in tact.

In the first round against Philly, Detroit looked very vulnerable, and had doubters believing that perhaps their run of success was going to come a sudden halt at the hands of fiesty Sixers squad.  However, they persevered, and went on to a second round matchup with the Orlando Magic, who came into the series having played very well against Toronto.  However, the Pistons reminded everybody how good they can be, and took the series in 5 games despite losing point guard Chauncy Billups for most of game 3 and all of games 4 and 5.  Richard Hamilton became the Pistons all time postseason scoring leader, passing Isiah Thomas, while Rodney Stuckey filled in nicely for Billups and helped carry  Detroit into yet another Conference Finals.

The key to this series is simple.  If Boston continues to win at home, they wont have to worry about winning away from it.  However, Detroit is a far better team than either of Boston's first two playoff opponents, and seeing the Pistons steal a game in Boston isn't a stretch, especially with Billups expected to be back, healthy and ready to start game 1.  Another important key for Boston is the play of Ray Allen.  Allen has struggled shooting the ball thus far throughout the postseason, but Boston will not have enough firepower without him to hold off Detroit.  Ray's a savvy vet and shooters as good as him rarely remain cold this long, so expect him to heat up and help carry Boston into their first Finals since 1987, when they lost to the Los Angeles Lakers.

Celtics in 7

Western Conference Finals

(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs. {3} San Antonio Spurs

Kobe, Kobe, Kobe.  You want to talk Lakers, it starts with number 24, who proved once again against the Jazz why he's flat out, the best basketball player on this planet.  Not only is scoring, but hes keeping his teammates involved, and theyre benefitting while the team just keeps winning.  Kobe was great, but the most valuable Laker during that Jazz series had to have been Lamar Odom who was working on both ends of the floor, scoring, rebounding and playing solid defense.  Sasha Vujacic kept hitting shot after shot off the bench, and of course Pao Gasol continued to prove why his acquisition was the seasons most significant.  We know Phil Jackson can coach, and he pulled the necessary strings in guiding L.A. to a game 6 in Utah, who had only lost on their home court 4 times during the regular season, with one of those games- not coincidentally- being a loss to those same Lakers.  L.A. is playing well, and looks poised heading into their first Conference Finals since the depature of Shaq.

The defending champs silenced their critics with an ugly 7 game series win against the Hornets.  The Hornets gave San Antonio everything they had, and while somebody pointed out in my last post that I wasn't giving them any credit by picking them to lose in 7...which they did...let me make it clear that the Hornets were a nice story, and a good team, but not a championship contender.  The simply lost to a more experience team with a deeper bench and better coaching.  Chris Paul is one of the five best players in this league, but he lacked a supporting cast down the stretch.  Getting back to the Spurs, it's just tough to pick against them until you actually see them lose.  Interestingly, in each of their playoff appearances following a championship, they were booted in the Conference Semi's, yet were able to break the shnide and win on the road.  

These teams are hardly strangers, having played each other in the postseason in 1999, 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004, and although some of the faces have changed, the rivalry has not.  You have the NBA's best player (Kobe Bryant) going up against the defending champion Spurs with their three headed monster of Duncan, Ginobili and a red hot Tony Parker who in my opinion was the MVP of that Hornets series, hitting big shots and playing Chris Paul as well as you can.  The Spurs worry me, as they suffered some embarassing blowout losses to a Hornets team that simply isn't as good as the Lakers team the Spurs must now contend with, and with L.A. having home court advantage, I'm predicting a celebration at Staples, with the Spurs once again failing to repeat.

Lakers in 7

And so there you have it.  My first round picks were good but not perfect, while in the second round I seemed to show maybe I know a thing or two.  But the best part of the NBA playoffs is that...well...like any other postseason in any other sport...anything is possible.

Plus as somebody without any ties to any of these teams, theres nothing more exciting than the thought of a Lakers-Celtics finals, renewing the NBA's greatest all time rivalry.