Today’s Absurd Prediction: The Bills get at least one rookie of the year award.
More on the draft later, since there’s a special spot for that, but I think that Leodis McKelvin, James Hardy, and Chris Ellis could all end up competing for rookie of the year. By getting a lot of touchdowns, I expect Hardy to be Buffalo’s top fantasy receiver, and Ellis could get a lot of sacks and cause some turnovers – all three are players who will make noticeable impacts with highlight-reel plays, the kind of thing that gets you notice in the Rookie of the Year competition.
Coaching Changes: Turkey calling the plays now. (A-)
The big change is Turk Schonert’s promotion from QBs coach to offensive coordinator, replacing Steve Fairchild. I don’t know about his playcalling skills, but at least he’s the guy who made a quality starter out of rookie Trent Edwards last year, and Edwards won’t have to adjust to something too new in his second year. Other than that, the coaching staff stays pretty much intact, and there’s plenty of reason to believe that this cast of coaches will build on their success in their (mostly) third year together. They’re in a good place – they’ve built a young team with promise, and it’s unlikely any jobs are in jeopardy barring a terrible collapse - though expect DC Perry Fewell to be interviewed for some head coaching jobs next offseason.
Draft: Filled needs, got instant-impact talent… that’s perfect, right? (A+)
The big needs were CB and WR, and they filled them quite adequately. The Bills added two new names to the ranks at cornerback, the aptly named Reggie Corner and 11th overall pick Leodis McKelvin, considered by many the best CB in the draft. McKelvin’s acceleration and improvisation make him a great returner as well as the kind of corner who can help take out a team’s deep game. Many aspects of his game need some work still, but his raw talent is quite impressive, and with work, he can be the Bills’ top corner in no time. Corner possesses a lot of the same qualities at a lesser level, but with work he could be quite effective in the nickel. If Edwards wanted a taller receiver, he’d better be happy with 6’7” James Hardy, who should be one heck of an end zone target, though he doesn’t seem to fight for yards much. Defenses are going to have a rough time covering both Hardy and Lee Evans. One pick I love is third-round DE Chris Ellis. He’s fast, he’s mean, he’s strong, and he’s alert – there’s one clip on his video where he flattens a quarterback, causing a fumble, then while the other linemen are stumbling around to recover the loose ball, he comes back to fall on it. The main concern is that he’s small, but the way he muscles guys around, I don’t see that being a problem. If they use him as a situational pass rusher in his first season, he should be scary. I don’t have any info on 4th round TE Derek Fine, except that he was a team captain for Orange Bowl champion Kansas, but another target can’t hurt. I don’t like the way OLB Alvin Bowen tackles, and imagine he’ll mostly be useful on special teams and blitzes. RB Xavier Omon helps in case Marshawn Lynch is injured – backup Fred Jackson can handle most of the load, and Omon can take the goal line/short yardage work. Finally, Buffalo loaded up on longshot talent in the seventh, padding the depth chart with comparatively miniscule OT Demetrius Bell, WR Steve Johnson, and DB Kennard Cox. So I see three guys who can make an instant impact, and some serious depth; all in all a great draft. It’s also worth noting that they made a trade for a Pro Bowl player and still had ten picks to work with.
Player Movement: Time to be scared of the Bills’ defense. (A)
The big splash is, of course, DT Marcus Stroud, the aforementioned traded-for player. On the same day, they got DT Spencer Johnson, who’d been backing up two of the best in the league (the Minnesota Williamses). Add them to third-year youngsters John McCargo and Kyle Williams, and they’ve pretty much guaranteed that the interior of your defensive line will be good enough all year long. They signed the newly ringed Kawika Mitchell to help out the linebackers, giving them one of the scariest LB corps in the league (add Angelo Crowell and a healthy Paul Posluszny). They signed TE Courtney Anderson, who couldn’t stay on the Lions’ or Falcons’ roster for more than two days – yeeeah, Robert Royal, your job is still safe for now. And they added a veteran to the competition at CB with William James, who couldn’t quite hack it against good players in the NFC East over his first seven years. The Bills made some serious cuts, mostly has-beens and underachievers, including RB Anthony Thomas, WR Peerless Price, DT Larry Tripplett, and DBs Coy Wire and Kiwaukee Thomas. This sends a strong message – Buffalo expects you to produce at your salary level, or you’re gone. There weren’t any major free agent defections, which tells me the Bills only lost what they wanted to lose.
Other Considerations: Losman - Your Loss, Man.
J.P. Losman has lost his starting job, for good enough reason, but he’s not happy about it. If he gets traded before the end of the season, the Bills will need a veteran backup in case Edwards struggles in year two or gets hurt. But there shouldn’t be much controversy as far as the pecking order is concerned – Edwards is definitely number one. Last year, I figured that the three new expensive linemen (Jason Whittle, Derrick Dockery, and Langston Walker) the Bills brought in would struggle, but now with a year together under their belts, and Jason Peters still protecting the QB on the left side I’m predicting great things – this could be one of the best O-lines in the league. Trent Edwards and Marshawn Lynch are a bit young to have the offense on their back, but they proved they could do it last year, and now they’re no longer rookies. A big issue facing the Bills is Toronto – they’ll be playing one preseason game (vs. PIT, Aug. 14) and one regular season game (vs. Miami, Dec. 7) in the Canadian metropolis in an attempt to expand their struggling market. The extra travel could be rough on the team, and they’ll lose a bit of the home-field familiarity advantage. Plus, the fans will be dealing all year with the fear of losing the team to a bigger market, which could fuel their fire, or negatively affect their morale. Thanks to solid drafting, the Bills have great depth, and can handle a reasonable load of injuries.
Grade: A – I like the Bills as my surprise elite team in 2008.
This time last year, we expected the Packers and Cowboys to be halfway decent at best. This year, Ralph Wilson’s boys could topple the annual greats in the AFC, and I’ll look like a genius if it happens.
Cheney Larschied
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Comments (18) Add A Comment
I won't be around to respond to your comments for a day or two probably, but... talk amongst yourselves. And if you have any disputes, I'm right and you're wrong. So there.
Dan TM is Stupendous…
Evanston , IL
Total Comments (2071)
Sweet. Nice overview. Bills for Super Bowl '08!
Lifer: Metallica…
Total Comments (9689)
This is absurd.
Ok, I do agree with you. I think the Bills will be greatly improved over last season.
iB4e:nebulapup.blogs…
Austin, TX
Total Comments (8528)
"the aptly named Reggie Corner" heeheehee
They cut Peerless Price, eh? Good for them. Always nice to show the locker room what's the dealio when it comes to underachieving stars.
I'm not sold on Trent Edwards yet, though, gotta' say. Everybody else seems to like him, but I think he's a stiff. My absurd prediction: he challenges the record for "most sacked" because of his inability to feel and avoid the rush.
Curly Lambeau
Total Comments (5170)
Most sacked huh? We'll see about that w/ the O-line w/ a full season under their belts, and one of the biggest O-lines in the league right now. Edwards has a LOT of poise, so to say his inabilty to 'feel' and avoid the rush - to me, is an ABSURD statement to make!!!
Peerless was a bust! He hasn't had a decent season since he & Eric Moulds were playing opposite each other in his 1st stint w/ the BILLS. Replaced by James Hardy. That alone will make a HUGE difference in their receiving corp.
They'll be a MUCH improved team in 2008. Don't forget that last season the BILLS had 17 players on IR, and a lot of 2nd - 3rd teamers out there starting. They finished w/ a 7-9 record w/ a pretty difficlut schedule. A healthy BILLS team in '08 COULD very well make them the 'surprise team' in the league this year.
I'm NOT saying S.B., but I do believe that the playoffs for the 1st time this decade isn't out of the question by any strech.
bhughes24
Scranton, PA
Total Comments (3)
I really don't think the extra travel will hurt the Bills at all -- we're talking a distance of approximately 100 miles (less than 2 hours on the highway if they drive, not counting time spent at the customs booth at the border).
It's been pointed out that Buffalo is a small market, and Toronto a bigger one -- but realistically, it's basically one very large metropolitan area that happens to cross an international border. Sure, there are a few so-suburban-they're-almost-rural areas in between, but as someone who grew up in upstate New York, regularly drives through Buffalo, and has a sister near Toronto -- there's not much difference. It's less than the difference between Milwaukee and Green Bay, and the Packers split time between those two cities for a while. The fans in Buffalo aren't thrilled about the possibility of losing the team to Toronto, but the fans in Toronto are positively ecstatic. If the home field advantage is about the actual physical location, then sure -- they'll have lost some of that. But if it's about the fan response, I'm pretty close to guaranteeing you won't see a drop in that at ALL.
strangedavid
Bargersville , IN
Total Comments (92)
Yeah, the drive from Orchard Park to TO isn't going to any big issue to the team. But, as a season ticket holder, I won't be seeing TO any time too soon. I already drive 300 miles from NE PA to the Ralph and an additional 90 or so miles, plus Custom's etc..... I don't see TO in my schedule. Oh - and the TO ticket prices haven't even been discussed here yet. I'll still be @ the Ralph for the home games MINUS the TO games. You can take that to the bank. I just hope I get to go up after Christmas/New Year's. (Playoffs) . . .
bhughes24
Scranton, PA
Total Comments (3)
I really hope the Bills do well...must be that small-city mentality that has me rooting for them.
PackBrew42 is…
Miller Brewery, WI
Total Comments (4060)
Hey let me know when you get to the Pat's and Redskins..good blog..gotta go bye.
Harry Callahan
Total Comments (10043)
My absurd prediction: he challenges the record for "most sacked" because of his inability to feel and avoid the rush.
Curly Lambeau | 05/29/08, 12:28 AM
You kidding? He was sacked 12 times in 10 games last year. With another year's experience, an improved OL play, and more effective receiving options, he'll do more than fine as far as avoiding sacks goes. I think he even had a streak last year of 3 straight games without a sack as well. And have you seen his ball release speed? It's elite.
Lifer: Metallica…
Total Comments (9689)
Excuse me while I laugh. Hahahahahaa. Nice thoughts though Dan, and glad to see these absurd predictions back.
Tracy00214-Is back!
Total Comments (32396)
Curly, I'm glad someone is challenging my absurdity. Someone who isn't a Pats fan (sorry, Tracy, you're biased).
LIFER, we'll get into my playoff predictions later, but as a rule I never pick a team with no playoff experience to get to the Super Bowl.
bhughes, there's a reason my predictions are the absurd ones. I don't think you'll find many pundits out there predicting the Bills under .500. You won't get much argument on a first playoff experience, since their schedule is perceived as easy.
strangedavid, I definitely think the stadium familiarity will be far more of an issue than the fan response. But really, the only game that counts in that stadium is against Miami...
Bye Harry...
i, pb42, the Bills could easily become the media favorite this year, and I hope that doesn't keep me from rooting for them. This blog proves that I was here first! And you guys too.
Dan TM is Stupendous…
Evanston , IL
Total Comments (2071)
Great blog, but I'll have to day off work to finish it. Ever heard of editting, man?
Southern Man 45
Total Comments (131)
strangedavid.....If you had grown up in Buffalo, you would never, in a thousand years, make the statement that Buffalo and Toronto are one very large metropolitan area. Believe me when I tell you, Buffalonians have no use for Toronto having partial custody of THEIR team. Forget your notion, it has no basis in fact. Buffalo fans go to Canada for the beaches, liquor and fireworks. Nowadays, the line at the Peace Bridge makes even those trips rare. A trip to Ted's Hot Dog Stand at the base of the bridge is the only reason to even drift near the border. Smarten up, Man.
There is no benefit dollarwise for going to Canada anywmore, so believe me, going to a Buffalo Bills game in a foreign country is nothing a true Bills fan would ever consider acceptable. This is the NFL, the playground bully, sticking its greedy nose into local business. THEY ARE THE BUFFALO BILLS, NOW AND FOREVER.
Southern Man 45
Total Comments (131)
Great blog, but I'll have to day off work to finish it. Ever heard of editting, man?
Southern Man 45 | 06/01/08, 04:41 PM
Editing doesn't necessarily shorten something.
Also, don't complain...especially about blog length. Long blogs are usually the better blogs especially when it's Dan TM.
Big Ben68
Total Comments (20639)
Thanks Ben.
Just busting your balls, Southern Man, but you're one to talk about editing with a phrase like "I'll have to day off work."
Dan TM is Stupendous…
Evanston , IL
Total Comments (2071)
Southern Man -- it's true I didn't grow up in Buffalo per se (I was in Syracuse), but economically there is no disputing the combined impact of the Toronto-Buffalo area. Economically, it's Toronto-Niagara-Buffalo-Rochester all in one big block.
I've been through there tons of times -- I know full well that there are gaps. Big gaps. I'm not suggesting it's a 100-mile-wide city. But it's not like traveling from, say, Pittsburgh to Toronto. Also, having been in both Buffalo and Toronto a number of times, I've gotta say -- Toronto's cleaner, friendlier, and better suited for an NFL team.
HOWEVER: I honestly do HATE the thought of Buffalo losing the team to Toronto; tradition and fan-fervor are hugely important. While I've never been a proponent of being a fan to the point of sacrificing logic, I'm also not a fan of boosting business to the point of alienating your core team. In other words: playing in Toronto is good for the NFL, good for the Bills, and good for Toronto. And it's a horrible, awful move for the fans.
strangedavid
Bargersville , IN
Total Comments (92)
Er... "core team" should read "core fans."
strangedavid
Bargersville , IN
Total Comments (92)
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