As May came to an end, Johan Santana, as traditional a slow starter as there is in the game, won his final two outings of the month to improve to 6-4. He appeared to be on his way toward another of his patented midseason win streaks. In 2006 he went 19-3 after an 0-3 start and in '04 he finished on an 18-2 run.
None of that seemed to matter to the two light-hitting ballclubs -- the A's and Nationals -- who beat him in his first two June starts as the Twins remain on the fringe of the AL Central race. To longtime followers of Santana, the two losses were the equivalent of a needle coming off a record. Santana had been the league's best pitcher since 2004, his first full season in the Twins' rotation, but suddenly he's getting lapped in the Cy Young race by a quartet of elite young hurlers -- Dan Haren (7-2, 1.58 ERA), C.C. Sabathia (9-1, 3.01), Josh Beckett (9-0, 2.88) and John Lackey (9-4, 2.60).
Even no-names such as Tampa Bay's James Shields (6-0, 3.04) and Haren's teammate, Chad Gaudin (6-1, 2.43), can stake a better claim to the Cy Young than Santana.
All of which raises the question, What's wrong with Johan?
To be fair, his lackluster 6-6 record can be attributed partly to poor run support. The Twins are scoring only 4.81 runs per nine innings for him this season, below the 5.05 they gave him in '06 and the 5.64 he got in '04, both of which were Cy Young-winning seasons for the Twins ace. Minnesota has scored three runs or fewer in all six of his losses, and they managed only three runs in his only no-decision. What's more, his stuff seems to be as tough to hit as ever, as evidenced by his healthy strikeout rate of 10.05 per nine innings.
However, there are a couple of disturbing stats that stand out and may not bode well for Santana's pursuit of a third Cy Young. Chief among them is his 13 home runs allowed -- his career high is 24. According to the Hardball Times, Santana's HR-per-flyball rate is up to 14.0 percent compared to 11.5 percent last season and 10.9 percent in '05. His groundball percentage is down to 35.6 percent from over 40 the past three seasons. And his rate of infield popups induced is down to 10.5 percent from a high of 18.8 in 2005 and 12.8 in '06. Simply put, Santana is allowing more balls to be hit hard to the outfield.
Then again, those numbers might look completely different by season's end. Check out Santana's track record of dominance in the latter two-thirds of a season:
April/March: 9-7, 4.23 ERA
May: 11-9, 4.05 ERA
June-Sept./Oct.: 64-21, 2.77 ERA
That last line is the type of finish he'll need to successfully repeat as the AL Cy Young winner and, more important, for the Twins to retain their AL Central crown.
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Comments (12) Add A Comment
WINS. Stands for "Worthless Inane Nogood Stat". This guy's BABIP is holding steady at .285 and half the guys above him in that list have unsustainably low BABIPs. So once his HR/9 number regresses to the mean, he will be #1 or #2 in VORP by the time its over. He's having a Pedro-ish run these last few years and every time I watch him I expect to see the strikeout record broken. He's the man.
ipkiss
Boston , MA
Total Comments (2)
Two words, Justin Verlander
Motoon
Total Comments (3)
Two words, Johan's better
trevor0333
Saint Paul , MN
Total Comments (1)
I think he's trying too hard this year. He's still pissed about the lack of run support in last years playoffs and he isn't getting much this year. He's still the best picter in baseball until someone goes a whole year and can dethrone him.
KCMAC929
Minneapolis, MN
Total Comments (757)
I agree with the first blog. Johan's numbers, 86 Inn, 72 Hits, 23 BB, 96 K's, suggest he's still got it and will have a strong second half. The only concern I can see is that after throwing 693.1 innings in 2004 through 2006, his arm may be a little tired. Still, if he isn't one of the AL's top five starters at the end of the season, I will be very surprised.
xbalanque
Berkeley , CA
Total Comments (1)
"He's having a Pedro-ish run these last few years and every time I watch him I expect to see the strikeout record broken"
The strikeout record is 350+ by Randy Johnson. Johan hasn't come close to 300 in his career. He's by far the league's best strikeout pitcher right now along with a healthy Peavy, but he's not a record-breaking K-master.
manningbowl135
Elmhurst , NY
Total Comments (3)
I'm a Nationals fan who watched all three Minnesota-Washington games on TV. Santana pitched very well and only threw a couple of bad pitches. Zimmerman got one of them for a three run homer that won the game. That was all the offense the Nationals mustered against him (except for Guzman, who loves to hit in Minnesota)
The Nationals are considered a "light-hitting team" because they play in a cavernous ballpark that turns most long fly balls into outs. Consequently, they have no power hitters, just a lot of linedrive and slap hitters. For some reason, that gives them an advantage against power pitchers. They've already beaten Smoltz, Glavin, Hammels, and Peavy this year, before Santana. But they regularly lose to rookies and junk -ball pitchers.
One other thing I notices in the three games against the Twins was pointed out by the Nationals TV announcers. The American and National Leagues emphasize different styles of hitting and pitching because the plate unpires call the games differently. The American League is a high-strike breaking ball league and the National League is a low-strike fastball league. The Twins hitters all seemed to foul off the fastballs and wait to clobber the breaking pitches. The Nationals hitters did the opposite.
DB1949
Fairfax , VA
Total Comments (1)
"The strikeout record is 350+ by Randy Johnson."
Good as the Unit has been, he's #3 in the modern era K-Zone behind the Ryan Express & the great Sandy Koufax - though he did K nearly 1,100 batters between 2000-2002, all after the age of 35!
Nolan Ryan+ (26) 383 1973 R
Sandy Koufax+* (29) 382 1965 L
Randy Johnson* (37) 372 2001 L
Nolan Ryan+ (27) 367 1974 R
Randy Johnson* (35) 364 1999 L
Bob Feller+ (27) 348 1946 R
Randy Johnson* (36) 347 2000 L
TD1
Total Comments (1)
Keep in mind the original poster said "every time" not every season. He/she could have also been referring to the single game strikeout record of 20 K's. Santana's could certainly break that mark if he's got his stuff and faces a slumping team.
mikemcd41
Total Comments (1)
Johan's FB% is elevated, and he does have some control over that, but you should know that HR/FB% is a matter of luck and out of the pitcher's hands. All pitchers regress to a figure around 10%, and Santana has just been a little unlucky early on.
jdbolick
Greenville , NC
Total Comments (41)
Actually Johan is pitching just like he always does -- he was a slow starter in his three Cy Young years too -- check out aarongleeman.com for a comparison.
Wait, did I say three Cy Youngs? Sorry, I must have been thinking of reality. He only has two on American Idol, where the voters decide.
by jiminy
New York , NY
Total Comments (1)
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