FanNation

*NOTE - please read the article in its entirety, and I ask that you fully comprehend it before making idiotic and irrelevant comments...*

Slowly but surely... the 2008 college football season steamrolls towards us (the sooner the better, right?). At this time last year, I made several preseason predictions for the top ten or so teams (the most popular and anticipated, the teams that would garnish the most attention, and be a heavy factor in the BCS title race).

Of course, predicting a team's season this early before the season starts is hardly reliable, but I had pretty good results overall from last year. I had Texas and Rutgers in the BCS title game (my biggest two misfires...) - Ohio State at 11-1, 8th-ish place finish with the only loss being at Penn State, and a possible BCS berth (my biggest "success"). I also had Wisconsin 11-1, with possible BCS stakes, with the only loss at Ohio State. I had Oklahoma with 1 loss and in the Fiesta Bowl (only loss to Texas). I had Virginia Tech 12-2 (losses at Clemson, ACC game) - LSU 12-2 (losses to Virginia Tech, Auburn) and beating Florida in the SEC game. I had WVU with two losses (at South Florida, at Rutgers) but still viable for a BCS bid. I knew either Hawaii or TCU would challenge for a "BCS" buster bid, but had both of them with 1 loss (TCU at Texas, Hawaii losing to Boise State). In the good ole Pac-10, I predicted sheer conference madness, with USC edging Oregon State, Oregon, and UCLA the last weekend for a share (and the Rose Bowl BCS berth) of the conference title. BTW, I had USC with 2 losses - Oregon State, Oregon. No one, in their right mind could have foresaw the Stanford debacle. Michigan and Notre Dame? Same. I had preseason Big Ten favorite Michigan 10-2ish (losses at Wisconsin, to Ohio State of course) - and I expected Notre Dame to struggle, but I figured they'd at least make a bowl game with a few upsets early in the season... 

HOW I PREDICTED LAST YEAR'S SEASON (2007 - posted June 19th, 2007)

#1 - BCS title game participant Rutgers (picked to upset UT)
#2 - BCS title game participant Texas
#3 - 1 loss Oklahoma
#4 - 2 loss SEC champ LSU
#5 - 1 loss Big Ten Co-Champ Ohio State
#6 - 1 loss Big Ten Co-Champ Wisconsin
#7 - 12-2 Florida (at LSU, and again to LSU in SEC champ game)
#8 - 2 loss Co-Pac-10 Champ USC
#9 - 12-2 Virginia Tech (ACC runner up, losses at Clemson & ACC title game)
#10 - 11-2 Big East Champ WVU

These records assumed all of the Top Ten teams won their bowl, and would be AFTER bowl season (the final rankings). The obvious blunder was the national title game selection. If you take away those 2, and push everyone up in their place, I think I did a pretty good job for the last 8. That being said, here goes for 2008. My reasoning in picking Rutgers over Texas in a heavy upset for the national title was there had yet to be a repeat BCS title winner. I fully expected the trend to continue.

Conference to beware of: Big Twelve.
Yes, last year was surely the year of the SEC. How many 3OT/ 4OT and THRILLER last minute games could one conference produce in a year? Uh, about 30 hey SEC? The conference was undoubtedly the deepest and most talented in 2007, and as a result most of the games kept you on the edge of your seat until the end. However, I expect that gauntlet to be passed along to the underrated Big Twelve. You have growing powers in Missouri and Kansas. A Nebraska team that will be respectable under new coach Big Bo. Colorado looks to continue improving. In the South, Oklahoma and Texas will remain their lordly football self, Texas Tech looks to make the leap, Oklahoma State should at least be respectable, and A&M could be a fringe bowl team under Sherman. I expect they'll have 8-9 solid bowl teams. Why'd I pick them over the SEC? Only because Arkansas will begin rebuilding post-McFadden/Jones with Petrino, Kentucky as well. I really don't think South Carolina will make the jump (the quarterback drama continues to make me hesitant). I think Ole Miss will VASTLY improve under Houston Nutt, but could be another year from being a seriously competitive team. This is no swipe at the SEC, there are just less questions in the Big 12 and more returning starters. The difference is very minimum, so the SEC could surely again play out to be the toughest conference a third year running (they'll surely have stout powers in Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Florida, and Georgia... who could any and all finish in the top ten with a national championship).

Biggest Mysteries/ Intrigue, by conference

SEC: Alabama.
I think 'Bama is seriously being undersold. Why? Because head coaches who've went 7andsomething barely making a bowl in their first year, in a then tough conference, seemingly work miracles their second year. Ala, Oklahoma in 2000 with Stoops, and Ohio State in 2002 with Jim Tressel. Ring bells? Pretty sure both schools won the national championship in those respective years, both being the 2nd year of each said coach. Looking at their schedules, the Big 12 was at the time the "it" conference - and tOSU's 2002 schedule was no slate of pick-up games either. So why can't Saban do it at ‘Bama in 2008? They lost MULTIPLE games by a hair. MULTIPLE. Most, due to inexperience and crushing mistakes (see, LSU at Alabama 2007). Don't think Satan... err... Saban won't fix that this year. They have a returning QB and could benefit from monster recruit classes. Did I mention Saban won a national title, a few years ago, at some school that I believe may be in Alabama's division...

Big East: WVU.
How often is the conference "front-runner" the biggest mystery? Not often. In my case, they are. Sorry if I'm not sold on the Bill Stewart hiring... his resume just lacks the quality I require to have optimism for the team. Stewart Mandel noted a good point when he stated Bill Stewart was the only guy not offered a position by Rich Rod when he bolted for UofM. Hate him if you want, but that speaks LOUD VOLUMES to me. WVU could very well contend for a BCS bowl in 2008, heck maybe even the national title if 2008 is half as bad as 2007. But Stewart's hasty and questionable hiring, along with WVU's heavy losses on defense (they just happened to be a top-5 defense... talk about being overlooked in your team's success...). That being said, if WVU plays all 12/13 games like it did against OU, who knows, I'll be the first to congratulate Stewart on his success.

Pac-10: UCLA.
Until UCLA hired Norm Chow, I think I would be more interested in how California would fare after 2007's stunning collapse. But leave it to no other than the Slick Rick Master himself to add spice to a bitter Southern California rivalry, and hire his new arch nemesis Pete Carroll's former right hand man. Not only did he add a powerhouse figure to his staff, I think he slyly sends a message to his cross-town rival... "It's On". Now the question is, how good can they be with a seemingly cursed and merry-go-round situation at the QB spot?

Big Twelve: Texas Tech.
I had a hard time between Nebraska and TTU, but I think TTU wins out in the "intrigue" department. Is this FINALLLLY the year they make the leap? Everyone has wondered and waited for multiple seasons now, but there is one thing. For all those past seasons they didn't make the leap, they have a tool this year they haven't had before - what could be a respectable defense. They've always had a high-flying offense (even though this one is the best yet, and has actual "STAR-players" versus the usual "system" labeled prospects. I'd go as far as, if Texas Tech doesn't make the leap, A LEAP, this year - then you'd have to question will they EVER make it. This team should garnish NO LESS than double digit wins, anything lesser than 10-3 or so should be a disappointment, even with Texas and Oklahoma on the schedule.

Big Ten: Ohio State.
That's right. The presumptuous favorite and possible national title contender. Why? Because I think all the other teams in the conference will finish, right where they are expected. UofM will struggle, Michigan State will continue to improve, Purdue will continue to be consistently good (but not great), Penn State and Wisconsin will surely be great (but can they challenge a loaded tOSU squad?), Iowa should at least rebound to be bowl eligible (no more losses to Western Michigan at home), Illinois will be good but not overwhelmingly tough, Indiana should maintain it's continuing growth, and Northwestern/ Minnesota will remain the so called "cellar-dwellers" for at least one more year (that being said, I wouldn't be surprised if one or both finished with six or seven wins and in a lower tier bowl). Then comes Ohio State. This team has to be psychologically challenged, if not fractured, from two stinging national title losses (and all the criticism that comes with). Does that make them more, or less resolved? When they appeared determined to right 2006's debacle in the 2007 contest versus LSU - at the first sign of trouble/ being tested, they absolutely unraveled. FAST. Was that the sign of a seriously young/ inexperienced team in "rebuilding" mode, not meant to play for a title in 2007? Or hangover from 2006's debacle and the constant waves of belittlement and criticism that followed? Only 2008 will tell. The good news? We don't have to wait until January. September 16^th, at USC. I'll be the first to tell you, if tOSU loses this contest (especially in a blow-out fashion) - they will be HARDPRESSED to find destiny for a third consecutive BCS title trip. To the point that, a two-loss SEC team (see - Georgia's grueling schedule) could easily be selected over them to play for the prize if it came to that point on BCS Selection Day.

ACC: ... undecided
Boston College. Virginia Tech. Wake Forest. UNC. N.C. State. Maryland. Florida State. Miami. Clemson. Georgia Tech. Virginia. How about, every team but DUKE? The scrambled state of the ACC is a lot of the reason for it's criticism. Clemson would appear to be the favorite - but we all know how they excel at not excelling. ACC powers BC and Virginia Tech suffered big losses. Florida State and Miami... who knows. The rest of the bunch? Other than Wake Forest, who knows. A UNC - Maryland type ACC Championship game in 2008 would NOT be a surprise to me. (See, 2006 - Georgia Tech vs. Wake Forest).

The rest of the pack: ... also undecided
I'm usually not a fan of the superpowers dominating the scene. In college football, I am. Enough said. I would like to see a Fresno State or BYU team in a BCS game this season, and the odds do seem to favor BYU. They both have to win against what COULD be good Big Six teams to do so...

End of Part I...
Coming tomorrow in Part II... I make my predictions for 2008.