• 01:26 PM ET  06.23
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While hitting stalwarts Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Hideki Matsui, Jorge Posada and Johnny Damon are all at least signed through next season, two current Yankees, Bobby Abreu and Jason Giambi, can be free agents after this season. Both players produce high OBP's, score a good amount of runs and are instrumental for a deep lineup that prides itself on working the count and the pitcher. Losing both players from the 2009 lineup would take away those high OBP's and considerably shorten the lineup. If both players were to leave, where would the Yankees turn to fill those spots?

The easy one first.  The Yankees need to sign Bobby Abreu for two more years. Abreu should not cost anywhere near the $16 million per season he is earning now. Two years are needed because that is the time frame for top prospect Austin Jackson, currently at AA Trenton, to be ready for the Bronx. Abreu is in a little slump right now, hitting only .191 over his last 12 games with a homer and 5 RBI's, but is a guaranteed run producer who plays every day -averaging 157 games played per season during his 10 full years in the majors.  What better way to get more for your money than to extend Abreu now, while the fire is not hot? At the end of the new two-year deal, Abreu will be 37 and his Bronx tenure will end.

Now for the tough decision.

Many times earlier this season, Yankee fans wanted Jason Giambi outright released from the New York Yankees. After the game on May 4th, Giambi's average was at .150 and his OPS was a Mark Belanger-like .692 (Belanger's 1971 OPS was .685 - his career best). However, since Alex Rodriguez returned from his quad strain on May 20th, Giambi has produced as his $21 million 2008 paycheck should dictate. Over his last 28 games, Giambi has hit .361 (35 for 97) with 7 doubles, 9 homers and 21 RBI's, a .456 OBP and a remarkable 1.167 OPS. Giambi's 3 for 3 day yesterday against the Cincinnati Reds have lifted his batting average to .271! His defense at first base, though not spectacular, has been steady, and Yankee fans can put up with a misplay of two if the power numbers continue.

Now, only a month and a half after wanting Giambi's release, the fickle Yankee fans want to know if their first base power threat (and free agent to be) is going to return next season! The Yankees have a $22 million option on Giambi for next season or a $5 million buyout. No way the Yanks pick up the option; the buyout is the most assured scenario.  If Giambi continues to hit the rest of the season, there is talk of the Yankees buying out Jason's contract and then trying to resign him for a one year deal in the neighborhood of another $5 million.

While that idea is plausible, and if Giambi continues to hit, there will other teams needing his services - many of whom are desperate enough to offer more than a one year deal to a 38 year old slugger with a knack for getting on base.  Seattle, Toronto and Cleveland have a big need for a slugging first base/DH type as does Baltimore.  GM's such as Theo Epstein of Boston and Billy Beane of the Oakland A's (Jason's former team) would love to have Giambi's high OBP in their lineups.  The Yankees will then have to compete for Giambi's services for next season - and that should not be done. Hank Steinbrenner should write the buyout check and say, "Good luck Jason and thanks for taking our money for the last seven years."

Where do the Yankees then go for a first baseman, preferably one young enough to have around for a few years. Next season Arod will be 33, Hideki Matsui, Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon all will be 35 and Jorge Posada 37. The core of the 2009 projected lineup is not far away from their first Yankee Oldtimers day!

The decision is tough because, despite the trend to go for youth in the starting rotation, the Yankee position players are in a win now mode. Also, while center field is the darling position of the Yankee franchise with heroes (and home grown talent) Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, Bobby Murcer and Bernie Williams patrolling there in the past, first base is also an honor position for the Pinstripers, highlighted by Lou Gehrig, Don Mattingly and Tino Martinez, two of whom (Gehrig and Mattingly) were Yankee team captains.

Going into next season, there are 15 teams with productive first basemen, and all will be 33 year old and under, with most in their 20's. Of those fifteen only three, Derrek Lee of the Chicago Cubs, Adrian Gonzalez of the San Diego Padres and Mike Jacobs of the Florida Marlins, were not brought up through the teams farm system, but, both all three were traded for early in their careers. Most teams have been building from within their own systems, going for youth over free agency. Young first basmen such as Joey Votto of the Reds, Conor Jackson of the Diamondbacks and James Loney of the Dodgers are the next generation behind veterans Todd Helton of The Rockies, Albert Pujols of the Cardinals and Lance Berkman of the Astros. All six are home grown talent. Those teams that went the free agent or aging veteran route for their first basemen (Giambi, Richie Sexson, Carlos Delgado) have largely been overpaying for lackluster performance.

Can the Yankees dig into their farm system for their 2009 first baseman? Maybe. At Triple AAA Scranton, Juan Miranda is a 25 year old slugging former Cuban defector, who is really punishing the ball over the last several weeks (currently .313 BA and .873 OPS) and was a top prospect in the Arizona Fall League last winter. But, Miranda does not hit lefties very well (7 for 40, no HR's, and 10 K's this season). Can the lefty problem can be solved by platooning with Shelley Duncan? Highly unlikely, since the Yankees did not even trust Duncan this season against many lefty starters.

The Yankees will have to go outside of the organization to get their first baseman.

All the speculation is to be on signing free agent Mark Teixeira of the Braves, but Tex will cost almost $200 million. While the Yankees will have almost $80 million off the books next year with the departures of Giambi, Pavano, Farnsworth, Hawkins, Mussina and probably Pettitte, and while they could "afford" Teixeira, that is too much cash for my taste. The money can be better spent elsewhere and I would rather keep the first round draft pick next year, too.  Teixeira didn't hurt his money chances in the open market with his 3 HR day yesterday.  

The Yankees are better off trying to trade for their future first baseman. There is a young, slugging first baseman that could help the Yankees who could be available. 

The Yankees should seek a trade for Prince Fielder of the Milwaukee Brewers. Why would the Brewers trade a young (24) power hitter coming off a 50 HR season a year ago? Several reasons:

          1)  The Brewers lack starting pitching and their ace, Ben Sheets, can be a free agent after this season. If the Brewers resign Sheets (and they desperately need to), it will cost at least $80 million.

          2) They have no ready starting pitchers in their system to fill the need if Sheets goes via free agency. A starting rotation of Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, Manny Parra, Yovani Gallardo (if healthy) and converted set up man Seth McClung is not going to scare anybody.

          3) Too many of the Brewers young players such as Richie Weeks, Corey Hart, Yovani Gallardo and JJ Hardy are all going need to be resigned for more money and Milwaukee just gave Ryan Braun $45 million.

          4) Milwaukee has a tremendous amount of hitting talent in Double AA and Matt LaPorta, last year's first round pick, is able to play first base. LaPorta has 19 homers with an OPS over 1.000 this season.

          5) At the beginning of 2008, the Brewers renewed Fielder to a one year deal for $670,000 - and    Fielder was not too happy about it.

Do the Brewers have the money to pay everybody? Probably not and paying for pitching should be their chief concern - not paying for power.

Next year Fielder is arbitration eligible and will likely make what Ryan Howard received - $10 million and Fielder is under control until 2011, not a problem anyway for the Yankees since they would sign Fielder long term. The Brewers can rid themselves of that money headache and boost their starting pitching depth by dealing Fielder to the Yankees for a pitching package of four including Kennedy (or Phil Hughes), Jeffrey Marquez, Dan McCutchen and Mark Melancon, projected to be Mariano Rivera's successor at closer.  The three young starters allow the Brewers more arms for their rotation while Melancon as Brewers closer in 2009 is a better option than 37 year old Salomon Torres.

While Fielder is slightly on the heavy side, he is still young enough to get in better shape. Remember that Joe Girardi's running regimen and fitness program allowed Brain Bruney and Giambi to lose weight. A new 6 year/$80 million deal from the Yankees he will be only 30 at the end of the deal, well before any weight issues start to erode his production. Fielder would bring a needed power threat to the Bronx and has that pedigree (and talent) which can win over New York. That new contract will save the Yankees about $100 million in the process over signing Teixeira.

Brian Cashman should forget about Teixeira, let Giambi go back to Oakland and trade for his future first baseman - Prince Fielder. It is a win-win for both teams - the Brewers replenish their pitching needs and the Yankees get their power hitting first baseman.

June 23, 2008  01:34 PM ET

why would Milwaukee trade him, he's their franchise player

June 23, 2008  01:36 PM ET

read the article and you will find out - don't just look at the title.

June 23, 2008  01:45 PM ET

Pitching is at a premium. this doesn't happen. Some of it was pretty good though.

June 23, 2008  01:49 PM ET

I would rather have Adrian Gonzalez of the San Diego Padres via trade but he was born and raised in San Diego, playing for his hometown team and is signed cheaply though 2011. Not likely San Diego will trade their native son and only power hitting threat. Also, his brother Edgar Gonzalez also plays for the Padres.

June 23, 2008  01:52 PM ET

Pretty good analysis. Not sure it goes down, but I like your reasoning behind it.

June 24, 2008  12:56 PM ET

Why would Milwaukee trade Fielder before 2011. They control him, and LaPorta probably isn't ready until 2010

June 25, 2008  08:29 AM ET

I do not think it is safe to say Fielder will get $10M in arbitration. While his numbers are very solid this year, he is on pace for only 90 RBIs and 35 homers. $10 million dollar players also tend to hit higher than .283.

As a Yanks fan, I'd like to see this happen, but don't hold your breathe. Fielder will be a steal at about $6.5-8.5 mill next year (what I predict he will be awarded). His trade value will not decline in July 2009.

June 30, 2008  11:10 AM ET

This is so pompous.

Naturally the Yankees would want Prince Fielder but more likely they will try to bring back Cecil Fielder.

The yankees would not even be in the top tier of potential trade partners if the brewers were to trade fielder. (and they should trade fielder.)

What does NY have to offer? A bunch of over paid has beens or unproven pitchers that don't even project very high. The days of teams like milwaukee being extended farm clubs for the yankees are over.

Do what NY does best. Go out and sign another over priced has been.

 
July 6, 2008  11:33 PM ET

UPDATE: Since CC Sabathia has been dealt to the Brewers for a package of prospects including Matt LaPorta, the Brewers are going for the playoff push this season. They still have quite a few stud hitting prospects, but no one that is close to major league ready like LaPorta - and he was my choice for next years Brew Crew first baseman.

But, Milwaukee needs to figure out what to do with both their 2 free agent pitchers in Ben Sheets and Sabathia. Do they let them both walk after the season and garner the four 1st round draft picks in 2009? If so, then they will have the money available to sign Fielder to a long term deal.

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