FanNation

In about two weeks the literal beginning of the 2008 NFL season takes place as official training camps kick off.  They are of course the marathon of drudgery within which teams forge an identity to take into the games.  And as training camps kick off, the game of predicting who will do what in the coming season begins, so I toss in my own guessing game for 2008:

NFC:

EAST:   As defending Superbowl champs, the Giants have most of their guys back together and have in Eli Manning a quarterback who shocked everyone by pulling off a stunning playoff run capped by the most iraculous game-winning play anyone can recall in a Superbowl.  The question remains whether Manning can sustain this level.  That he took equipment to train with on his wedding and honeymoon certainly shows how serious he is about mastering every nuance he can about quarterbacking.  Unfortunately it also suggests some level of desperation on his part.  Certainly one shouldn't forget how easily he was bullied in the locker room by Tiki Barber and Jeremy Shockey, and despite everyone's better judgement, Shockey appears set to return to the Giants huddle.  There's also the comparison with Peyton, a more talented quarterback up and down whose own Superbowl success didn't translate to playoff wins in 2007.  And there is the Giants' recent history; as good as they are at building competitive squads it has never translated into consistent success, and even the Superbowl/playoff run was a touch-and-go affair that could have collapsed at several points - the ultimate overachievement.

The division the Giants play in remains strong - enough to cause the Giants problems.  Even so, Dallas, Washington, and Philly have holes in their games - Dallas and Philly have mediocre quarterbacks and head coaches, Washington is in transition mode with a team that overachieved and thus had nothing with which to sustain a playoff push.  Even with Tony Romo and Bum Jr., I expect the Cowboys to win the division and they and the rest to beat each other up enough that no one could look all that strong entering the playoffs.

NORTH:   Green Bay has been held hostage by Brett Favre long enough; he needs to be cut and the Packers need to move on with Aaron Rodgers, who looked noticably better than Favre in the Dallas game last year.   This is another division of genuine competitive depth and also in possession of holes - Green Bay has a new quarterback, Chicago a good defense but little in the way of offense or quarterbacking, Minnesota a superb running game but questions about the quarterback, and Detroit as......well, Detroit.  This is one division that looks up in the air right now.

SOUTH:   A weak division right now, only Tampa Bay and Carolina look like they know what they're doing.  The Falcons are a mess and have to start rebuilding with Matt Ryan while New Orleans is still The Aints despite one of the league's better quarterbacks in Drew Brees.  I expect the Panthers and Bucs to dominate here.

WEST:    Another weak division.  The Seahawks are good, but compared to the league's best teams never measure up even with one of the better home-field advantages in the league.  The Niners and Rams have been a mess for awhile now and have a long way to go to dig out of it.  The Cardinals and their meiserly owners the Bidwells got their new stadium and it didn't make them a good team; only a change of ownership will ever make this team any good.  Seattle easily wins the division and then folds in the playoffs in Holmgren's swan song.

AFC:

EAST:    For all the struggles of their offensive line in the middle two quarters of SB XLII, the Patriots are still the top organization in the NFL and are structured much better than anyone else to sustain it.  They are thus better suited to win SB XLIII than anyone else.  The question "Can they run the table?" has been asked, and no longer can it be considered unthinkable.  Better than any team, the Patriots address weaknesses in their game; if teams think they can just copy the Giants and pass-rush them to death, think again.  People talk about "the Superbowl hangover" and the history of Superbowl losers struggling the year later, but the Patriots have been making a mockery of such history all decade and bounced back from their previous two Superbowl losses pretty well (1986 and '97 seasons).  Until the league sees a rival team that can sustain the level of power the Patriots have sustained, the Patriots remain favorites to win it all.

They may get better competition from their division this season, with Miami now operating under Bill Parcells and Buffalo showing some competitive consistency the last couple of seasons.  It may be too much to expect either to seriously challenge for the division title, but Parcells' organizational ability has proven itself over the years - his post-Giants weakness was always that he could build a winning organizaton but couldn't sustain it as a coach; he doesn't have that coaching responsibility right now (though knowing him one has to wonder about later in the season or even next year), plus when it comes to drafting, Parcells' record is clearly stout.  

The weak link in the division is The Same Old Jets.  The story goes that as 2005 Patriots defensive coordinator, Eric Mangini was unimaginative and saw his responsibilities reduced greatly after New England's loss to the Colts that November - it is noteworthy that the 2005 Pats' defense improved rather dramatically after that Colts loss.  In 2007 Mangini's surprising 2006 success was nowhere to be found, and several comments came out that his defenses were unimaginative; throw in the Jets' enormous spending spree ($140 million) for 2008 and the resemblence to the period entering 1996 becomes sharper - a coach who simply couldn't do the job, a roster rich in talent but short on ability to win games, the fundamental history of the Jets as an organization that always looked better than they were.  I don't expecrt much from the Jets; if they go 8-8 I will be surprised.

SOUTH:    Arguably the deepest division in football, it seems a given the Colts will win the division again.  But beyond that, we saw in 2007 reversion to the Peyton Manning Colts of old - a team that couldn't go far in the playoffs.  Going 12-4 will be something of a disappointment for the Colts.

The team to watch is the Titans, who showed marked improvement in making the playoffs and who have reached back to the future with certain players and coaches trying to get back that physical muscle of old.  The biggest question remains Vince Young, who struggled in games where he had to throw the ball to any significant extent; of course he didnt have much to work with, either.  The return of Mike Heimerdinger should help matters.

Jacksonville is what it is - a talented team that will win a lot but go nowhere in the playoffs, while Houston is better than it was but still a ways from becoming truly good; with Matt Schaub, though, there's reason for optimism.

NORTH:   What the hell is going on in Pittsburgh?  As of July 10 the Rooneys are the owners, but right now we don't know if that will last.  Anyway, this team is one of four AFC teams one can always feel confident will win their division, but there are questions to ask in the Steelers' spectacularly uneven playoff runs the last twelve years - especially after wiping out a big gap and then blowing it against a Jaguars team they always struggle against.  Expect wins and toughness in the regular season; after that who knows.

Their biggest rival may be a rising Cleveland Browns team, which turned a corner in 2007.  The former Cleveland franchise - now the Baltimore Ravens - undergo a big facelift with new coach John Harbaugh, and this makes them a big question mark.  As for Cincinnati, the window of opportunity under Marvin Lewis may have closed.

WEST:    Here we have two superb teams in San Diego and Denver; San Diego turned a corner with Norv Turner while Jay Cutler showed form needed to make the Broncos a playoff team.  Denver's problem is sustaining that; blowing a big lead in Chicago illustrated the strengths and weaknesses of the Broncos last year.  

Meanwhile we have two bad teams in Kansas City and Oakland.  Until Al Davis is removed and a new oragnizational structure - one that understands 21st-century football - is put in place, Oakland will remain what it is.  Kansas City meanwhile had better draw up candidates to replace Herm Edwards, because there is no way he can take them anywhere.

SUPERBOWL SHOWDOWN - Patriots-NY Giants rematch, won by Patriots.  I see these two teams as the only ones with the soundness of structure and muscle to make the Superbowl and the Patriots as the fundamentally stronger of the two.