FanNation - The Republic of Sport

The follow-up to my Yankees recap piece from Thursday.

Biggest Surprise: Mike Pelfrey

I have to admit I was wrong about Pelfrey. Earlier in the year I thought the Mets should either use his talented right arm as a chip to acquire a more polished starting pitcher or let him spend the year honing his skills in New Orleans. Goes to show you why I’m not a pitching coach. The patience that Rick Peterson and Dan Warthen have shown is finally paying off. Since the beginning of June Pelfrey has shown top of the rotation ability. In July he’s 3-0 with a 0.41 ERA. An effective Pelfrey gives the Mets the best one to five starting pitching in all of baseball. It also gives them peace of mind in the event that Pedro needs to go on the DL. It’s a lot easier to play “fast and loose” with the number five starter when you know quality starts can be had with your top four. Has Pelfrey exorcised the low self confidence and learned how to pitch? We have the second half to find out, but if Pelfrey is for real that Mets may have the best young arm (including Chamberlain) in New York the rest of 2008.

Biggest Disappointment: Pedro Martinez and Moises Alou

This may be unfair due to the fact that both suffered freak injuries. No one can claim that both Martinez and Alou didn’t work hard in preparing for the season. At least for Pedro he has the second half to redeem himself. The frustrating part is that, when healthy, both can be at the top of their respective positions regardless of their age. Going forward the Mets will have to learn that relying on players who are historically fragile might not be the best recipe for roster stability. More about that in the biggest mistake category later.

Unsung Hero: The Mets Bench

Unlike the prior two years, this year’s Mets team hasn’t suffered when they go to the bench. Angel Pagan, Fernando Tatis, Endy Chavez, Raul Casanova, and Damion Easley have all contributed. Tatis/Chavez has been so effective that Omar Minaya is considering passing on any of the overpriced corner outfielders on the market. Steve Sax said it best on Saturday when he talked about how you need all 25 players to contribute in order to win a championship. Sax would know, since his 1988 Dodgers team epitomized the spirit of that statement.

Biggest Mistake by Omar Minaya: Not acquiring a right handed corner outfielder

As much credit as you want to give Omar Minaya for the aforementioned bench players, you have to question why he didn’t foresee the need for insurance with Moises Alou. History indicated that Alou would miss significant time. During the winter you had players like Shannon Stewart available for virtually nothing. Reed Johnson could have been stolen off of waivers. Now he has the difficult decision of whether to overpay for the likes of Xavier Nady and Raul Ibanez or trust his bench. The only saving grace is that corner outfielders tend to become available even after the trading deadline. In 2006 Omar acquired Shawn Green in late August after Cliff Floyd went down with an injury.

Biggest Need in the Second Half

Staying with the corner outfield theme it’s obvious after reading the “biggest mistake category” that Omar needs to acquire an outfielder. Fernando Martinez is too young to throw into this pennant race without a safety net. The player I believe would fit perfectly is Nady, but not at the current asking price. If you could get Ibanez on the cheap then perhaps you take a flier. Realistically they might have to settle for a salary dump like Randy Winn. The Mets better hope that the Fernando “lighting in a bottle” Tatis keeps it up. Something tells me that he will get exposed if you play him long term.

Silva’s Mets Prediction

If I would have told you in Spring Training the Mets would fire their manager, lose Pedro for two months and Alou for the season, and only get 200 at-bats from Ryan Church, where do you think they would be? I doubt a half game back (tied in the loss column) of the Philadelphia Phillies. I believe the Phillies and Marlins starting pitching can’t match up with the Mets. Both of their bullpens might have overachieved in the first half. Let’s face it, Brad Lidge is due for a meltdown, and does anyone think Kevin Gregg can handle a pennant race. In the end, if the Mets pitching stays healthy, I can’t see why they won’t win this three-team fight. Maybe 20 years from now they’ll make a movie called “Flushing was Burning” to commemorate the 2008 World Champion New York Mets.

Mike Silva is a freelance writer and radio host. His is the host of a New York baseball show called NY Baseball Digest that you can find at www.nybaseballdigest.com.