With Fantasy Football leagues starting up everywhere, here's my take on be sleepers and gambles that you should keep an eye on in your draft.
Sleepers
Jake Delhomme - QB - Carolina Panthers
Before his season ending injury, Delhomme threw for 624 yards with 8 touchdowns and just 1 interception in just three games last year. This season he comes in fully healthy, and with even more weapons in his receiving core. The Panthers added Muhsin Muhammad, a great redzone threat that Delhomme has played with before, and DJ Hackett, who could emerge as the number two guy, or a slot receiver at worst. Add in the homerun threat of Steve Smith and a solid tight end in Jeff King, and Carolina's passing game should be very potent. Expect Delhomme to stay healthy and put up impressive numbers.
Rudi Johnson - RB - Cincinnati Bengals
After averaging 1,407 yards and 12 touchdowns in three seasons, (2004-2006) Johnson took a dive last season and rushed for only 497 yards and 3 touchdowns in 11 games last year. If his production can get back to pre-2007 levels, Johnson could be a huge sleeper on your team. He's not rated very highly by anybody this year, so if you take a risk on him in the later rounds, he could be a great steal.
Steve Smith - WR - New York Giants
Smith played in only five games last year during the regular season, and had a minimal role. In the playoffs however, he caught 14 passes for 152 yards, and Eli Manning showed that he has confidence in him. The Giants don't air it out very much, but keep an eye on Smith during the regular season. With defenses focusing on Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer, and with the loss of Jeremy Shockey, Smith could see a lot of single coverages and be a great option.
Greg Olsen - TE - Chicago Bears
Last season out of a backup role, Olsen caught 39 balls for 391 yards and 2 touchdowns. With the loss of Chicago's top two receivers, expect Olsen and fellow tight end Desmond Clark should both be a more integral part of the passing game. Olsen should line up in the slot frequently, as he has the size to go up against defensive backs and the speed to outrun linebackers. If you can't land an elite proven tight end, (such as Antonio Gates, Jason Witten, Tony Gonzalez, or Kellen Winslow Jr.) Olsen should be worth a starting roster spot almost weekly.
Anthony Gonzalez - WR - Indianapolis Colts
Many viewed Gonzalez as a sleeper for last season, but this year he should be a much better candidate. After catching 37 passes for 576 yards and 3 touchdowns last season, expect those numbers to go up if Indy can stay healthy. With defenses focusing on Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Dallas Clark, Gonzalez could see his fair share of passes. A year of experience under his belt should do wonders, so expect him to improve on his rookie stats.
Gambles
Matt Leinart - QB - Arizona Cardinals
Leinart suffered from injuries and a quarterback controversy last year when he was benched in favor of veteran Kurt Warner. However, he still enters Arizona's training camp this summer as their starting quarterback. With weapons like Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, and an emerging redzone threat tight end Leonard Pope, Leinart has all the weapons around him to put up solid fantasy stats. If his offensive line improves and he stops taking so many hits, he could be a great number two quarterback, or at least a guy to fill your bye weeks. If he struggles however, Warner could be starting once again after playing so well in his absence last season. Leinart is a gamble, and he probably shouldn't be your first quarterback choice, but if you can snag him in the later rounds he could surprise you.
Roddy White - WR - Atlanta Falcons
Remember when Lee Evans had a breakout fantasy year in 2006, and he was high on people's boards for last year's draft? I do, and his scenario reminds me a lot of Roddy White this season. While both receivers had surprisingly solid seasons the year before people noticed, both faced one dilemma: being virtually the only receiving threat on their teams. With no other options beside him, secondaries double teamed Evans last year, and his fantasy production dropped. I expect the same to happen this year with Roddy White. With the loss of Alge Crumpler, defenses will focus mainly on White, taking away the opportunities he had last season. The addition of several new offensive linemen and free agent running back Michael Turner could also shift Atlanta's offense to run more often. If Matt Ryan also comes in to start at some point, this could also hurt White's stats if he takes awhile to adjust to the NFL throwing game. White will still be valuable, but he probably shouldn't be your first wide receiver you choose.
Willis McGahee - RB - Baltimore Ravens
Surprised to see McGahee here? Look at his schedule. He faces plenty of tough matchups throughout the season. McGahee will be forced to run against solid run defenses like Pittsburgh twice, Tennessee, Indianapolis, New York Giants, Philadelphia, Washington, Dallas, and Jacksonville. Take into account that he faces the last three teams on this list during weeks 15, 16, and 17, right when most leagues have their playoffs, and he could hurt you when you need it most. Expect teams to stack the box against the Ravens and force either Kyle Boller or rookie Joe Flacco to beat them through the air. McGahee should still get his touches, and could put up some solid games against poor defenses like Cincinatti and Cleveland. But I don't expect him to be consistent.
Thomas Jones - RB - New York Jets
With the addition of All-Pro left guard Alen Faneca, the running game should be much improved this year in New York. Putting him between young players like left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson and center Nick Mangold gives the Jets a very solid offensive line. Good left guards in the NFL can help a running back put up great stats. Look at Jamal Lewis last season after the play of Eric Steinbach on his offensive line, or the stats that Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor put up in Minnesota behind Steve Hutchinson. Thomas Jones could be the next benefactor of this trend, and he's definitely worth a gamble. The only thing that I see hurting his production is Leon Washington, and Jones has never been a back who gets a lot of carries at the goalline, so that could end up hurting him.



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