FanNation - The Republic of Sport

I love boldness. I loved the Angels trade for Mark Teixeira (.383/472/.617 in 16 games). I loved the Manny Ramirez trade for both the Red Sox and the Dodgers (for whom Ramirez has delivered .424/.514/.780 in 16 games). I hate apathy. I hate the fact that the Twins again doomed themselves to missing the playoffs or exiting quickly because they didn???t upgrade. I hate that the Rays didn???t seize the moment by trading for someone other than Chad Bradford. No, they couldn???t have foreseen that Carl Crawford, Troy Percival and Evan Longoria would all go down right around the same time. But they should have had the foresight to know they were operating near 100% utilization for 115 games and that they couldn???t keep it up. And, yes, boldness doesn???t always mean success. The Dodgers boldly signed Andruw Jones (an OPS+ of 34!). The Reds boldly spent a ton of money on Francisco Cordero (decent year with a 3.90 ERA and 23 saves, but the Reds are 55-70. But at least the Dodgers and Reds were trying, and that needs to be respected. So where am I going with this? The Cardinals need to trade Albert Pujols, that???s where. It???s a bold, bold move ??? and it???s what the Cardinals need to do if their goal is to win a World Series in the next five years. The Cardinals have a good team. They???re 70-57. That???s good enough to lead the National League East or West, but in the newly elite National League Central it???s good for third, behind Chicago and Milwaukee. They???re two games behind Milwaukee for the Wild Card. Too good to re-tool, you say? You???re wrong. St. Louis faces certain early elimination in the playoffs, and it???s doubtful they???ll make it. Here???s why ??? it??? the starting pitching. Here are the Cardinals post-season options: Pitcher GS W-L IP H K ERA ERA + Note Kyle Lohse 27 13-6 162 170 90 3.94 108 Braden Looper 25 11-9 148.3 162 73 4.07 104 Todd Wellemeyer 24 10-4 142.3 133 95 3.79 112 Joel Pineiro 21 6-5 123.7 152 63 4.80 88 Adam Wainwright 13 6-3 91.7 80 62 3.14 135 Injured Mitchell Boggs 8 3-2 34.0 42 13 7.41 57 Chris Carpenter 3 0-1 14.3 14 6 1.88 225 Injured So what we have here is a) rag-tag crew of so-so pitchers (Lohse, Looper, Wellemeyer and Pineiro) who don???t strike anyone out and will fail in the playoffs and two injured frontline pitchers (Wainwright and Carpenter). We also have just one building block for the next three to five years, and that???s Wainwright. Carpenter will be 34 next year, and he???ll essentially have missed all of 2007 and 2008. He can???t be counted on. The Cardinals have a load of minor league pitching talent (Jamie Garcia, Nicholas Additon, Richard Castillo, Angel Cruz, Mark Diapoules, Justin Fiske, Geney Rios and Jesse Todd), but most of them are very young ??? one to three years away from contributing at the Major League level and it???s unknown whether any of them (or Wainwright) will be an ace. The bullpen is another near-term Cardinals??? weakness. Closer Jason Isringhausen likely won???t be back next year. Ryan Franklin performed admirably while Isringhausen was on the disabled list, earning 14 saves, but he has a 1.566 WHIP ??? and he???ll be 36 next year. Perhaps the answer is Chris Perez. He???s pitched well this year, posting a 3.34 ERA and striking out 31 in 29.7 innings. But he has a 1.348 WHIP and has pitched just 132.7 professional innings. So let???s trade Pujols and see what happens. The team acquiring Pujols has to have deep pockets and Major League ready contributors to send to St. Louis. Who fits that description? Los Angeles: The Dodgers have the money, but do they have the talent? How about first baseman James Loney, reliever Jonathan Broxton and starter Chad Billingsley? No way. Not enough. Matt Kemp doesn???t help because the Cardinals are set in the outfield. New York Yankees: They have the money and the motivation ??? General Manager Brian Cashman surely is on the hot seat again. But do they have the talent? Robinson Cano could fill the Cardinals??? hole at second, Joba Chamberlain could be the missing ace and Philip Hughes could plug in the fourth hole, behind Chamberlain, Wainwright and possibly Carpenter. But it isn???t enough for the Cardinals, and it leaves the Yankees??? already questionable 2009 rotation even more questionable. Plus, they can just overbid for free agent Mark Teixeira. That leaves us with the Red Sox. They have the money. They have the talent. And they have a history of being bold (signing Daisuke Matsuzaka, trading away Manny Ramirez). Here???s the trade: St. Louis trades 1B Albert Pujols RP Russ Springer to the Boston Red Sox for 1B Kevin Youkilis SP Josh Beckett RP Jonathan Papelbon That???s bold. The Cardinals trade one of the best hitters in the game???s history. They get an ace pitcher and post-season performer in Beckett. They get an elite closer in Papelbon. And they get a premium first baseman in Kevin Youkilis. And they improve their chances of making and advancing in the playoffs over the next five years. The Cardinal???s new rotation: Beckett Wainwright Carpenter And the best two out of Looper, Wellemeyer and the prospects listed above. Their new bullpen has Papelbon and Perez at the end. And the Cardinal???s new line-up looks like: Colby Rasmus/Skip Schumaker (CF) Ryan Ludwick (RF) Youkilis (1B) Rick Ankiel (LF) Troy Glaus (3B) Yadier Molina (Catcher) Adam Kennedy/Aaron Miles/Felipe Lopez/FA (2B) P Cesar Izturis (SS) The Cardinals??? offense isn???t as good as the Pujols version, but the pitching is far superior. It???s a team that has a better chance to win the World Series. As for Boston, the trade would give them this new rotation: Jon Lester Daisuke Matsuzaka Paul Byrd Tim Wakefield Clay Buchholz/Michael Bowden In the bullpen, Justin Masterson would take over for Papelbon. Springer would join Manny Delcarmen and Hideki Okajima as solid set-up men. And the new Red Sox offense would look like this: Dustin Pedroia (2B) J.D. Drew (RF) David Ortiz (DH) Albert Pujols (1B) Jason Bay (LF) Mike Lowell (3B) Jed Lowrie (SS) George Kottaras/Jason Varitek (Catcher) Jacoby Ellsbury (CF) The bullpen would be weaker, and they???d need to have a contingency plan in case Masterson fails as closer. But the line-up one through six would be the best in baseball ??? and perhaps the best in recent history. The rotation would be weaker, but perhaps not as much as one would think. Lester should be ready to ascend to the role of ace in 2009. Byrd, assuming the Sox re-sign him, which I think they will, is good enough to win 14 with the Sox offensive support. It would be a bold trade for both teams. The Red Sox would be giving up three important pieces of their core. The Cardinals would be giving up one of the game???s best ever hitters. But both teams would be better, and both teams would have a better chance of reaching and winning the World Series over the next five years. And that???s the goal, isn???t it?