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Will Carl Pavano make a significant contribution to the Yankees down the stretch? Mike Pagliarulo: Pavano Can Contribute. Really. I???m serious. It???s telling that none of our writers were interested in writing the ???Yes, he can contribute??? side of this story. In fact, many took the unprecedented step of openly mocking this perspective. So it???s up to me, the last man standing, to take on our writers and seemingly all Yankees fans and baseball fans. But guess what? Pavano can contribute. Really. Before I explain why, let???s address whether this question is even relevant, as many have been quick (and seemingly far too happy and eager) to proclaim the Yankees??? season over. Let???s be very clear: the Yankees are NOT dead. With 35 games left in the season, they are six games behind Boston and Minnesota in the Wild Card race. That???s not an easy gap to close, but it???s far from impossible. So, the Pavano question is legitimate. Back to Pavano???s ability to contribute. Pavano will contribute because he hasn???t contributed. Got it? No? I???ll explain. Since the end of the 2005 season, Pavano has pitched a total of 11.3 innings. Essentially, he???s now an unknown quantity to opposing hitters, scouts and managers. That???s a big benefit to a pitcher. Want proof? Look at the success of Oakland A???s reliever Brad Ziegler, who leveraged his unique submarine delivery to 39 scoreless innings to begin his career this year. Ziegler doesn???t have great stuff and projects to being just an average reliever. Hitters took a while to catch up to him, and perhaps they already have, as he???s allowed runs in his last two appearances. Look at the success last year of Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz. He threw a no-hitter against Baltimore and had a 1.59 ERA in 22.7 innings. This year? A 6.75 ERA with several tickets back to the minors. The bottom line is that when a pitcher and hitter are unfamiliar with each other, the pitcher tends to have the early advantage. On Saturday Pavano will face the Orioles. Here???s a possible line-up with career at bats versus Pavano: Hitter Position Career At Bats versus Pavano At Bats versus Pavano since 2005 Brian Roberts 2B 8 0 Nick Markakis RF 0 0 Melvin Mora 3B 4 0 Aubrey Huff DH 12 0 Kevin Millar 1B 11 0 Luke Scott LF 0 0 Ramon Hernandez C 5 0 Jay Payton CF 13 0 Juan Castro SS 2 0 Total 55 0 By comparison, the same Orioles line-up has 217 career at bats against Andy Pettitte. Making things more difficult for the Orioles is that none of those 55 at bats against Pavano has come since 2005. If Pavano sticks in the rotation, he???ll face Toronto next. The Jays??? possible line-up is far less familiar with Pavano than the Orioles???. Essentially, they???re facing someone they???ve never seen before. Here???s the history: Hitter Position Career At Bats versus Pavano At Bats versus Pavano since 2005 Joe Inglett 2B 0 0 Marco Scutaro 3B 3 0 Alexis Rios RF 5 0 Vernon Wells CF 8 0 Adam Lind LF 0 0 Rod Barajas C 2 0 Lyle Overbay 1B 3 0 Kevin Mench DH 0 0 John McDonald SS 0 0 Total 21 0 Pavano is not a good pitcher, let???s be honest. His mechanics are terrible; his poise is lacking; and he???s had one good full season (2004) since his debut in 1998. But teams aren???t familiar with him, and when he was last pitching deception was one of his best qualities. The Yankees??? plan to maximize Pavano???s value thru the end of the year should be based on minimizing his exposure to hitters. He shouldn???t pitch multiple times against the same team, and the fewer times he goes through an opponent???s line-up during a game the more effective he should be. Lack of hitter familiarity with Pavano is his biggest asset, and it just might be enough for him to have success the rest of this season. Just maybe. Don Ehrke: Of Course Not; He???s Just Not That Good Seabiscuit. Rocky Balboa. The Cleveland Indians in Major League or Roy Hobbs in The Natural. Sports fans are captivated by stories about underdogs. Everyone dreams of the tossed aside, washed up failure who ??? given just one more chance ??? achieves greatness. Such tales give all of us hope that it???s never too late, even for our own dreams to become reality. If you???re given to such romantic musings, you may wish to avoid the Carl Pavano comeback story. News out of the Bronx is that Pavano is set to rejoin the much-injured Yankee pitching staff on Saturday. The hope is that Pavano begins to earn his 8-digit salary and produces enough victories to remain relevant in the American League playoff hunt. It???s not going to happen. It???s not going to happen because Carl Pavano has never been an outstanding pitcher. After six unremarkable seasons (39-50, 4.59 ERA) Pavano went 18-8 for the 2004 Florida Marlins. Since that season the oft-injured Pavano has gone 5-6 in 19 starts for New York. Many, many pitchers in baseball history posted one great season that they were unable to duplicate. Take away Pavano???s one quality season and he???s 44-56 with a 4.62 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. His resume is limited to one very good year. How great was his 2004 season, anyway? Pavano was 18-8 but only 7-5 against National League clubs that finished with winning records. His fine 137 ERA+ and 1.174 WHIP were seventh and ninth in the National League; his ERA of 3.00 was also good for seventh. Pavano???s 2004 was a good season, but not great. The catch is that Pavano???s fine 2004 season followed an outstanding 2003 playoff performance. This sequence of events convinced New York and, let???s not forget, Boston to open their checkbooks to entice Pavano. Nevertheless, how can a pitcher ??? frequently plagued by injuries and four years removed from his last productive season ??? all but marginally improve the Yankees??? dimming playoff hopes? How can even the most optimistic fan suppose Pavano will tame American League offenses when he???s had such limited success in a decade long career? Carl Pavano???s return to the major leagues is a testimony to his desire and determination. The most amazing part of Pavano???s comeback is that it???s happened at all. Any success he enjoys only adds to the satisfaction. As for New York???s hopes making the playoffs with Pavano in the rotation??? that story has an unhappy ending.