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Year four of the Dave Wannstedt era opens up at noon Saturday at Heinz Field as the Panthers host the Falcons of Bowlig Green State University.  This Saturday begins a year of great optimism among Panther fans following Pitt's stunning upset of West Virginia to close out the 2007 season.  That game is history now as the Panthers embark on a critical season for Wannstedt, who following that game was rewarded with a three year contract extension, and this program.  Wannstedt has done everything right off the field to build this program into a contender, now it is time for that off the field success to translate into a successful sixty minutes on the field.  It starts saturday.  Here is a breakdown of how the Panthers and Falcons match up.

Pitt offense vs. Bowling Green defense

Pitt offensivly returns eight starters from last years team including All Big-East running back LeSean McCoy and steady backup LaRod Stephens-Howling.  Also returning for the Panthers this year is quarterback Bill Stull, who won the starting job in camp last year, but injured his thumb in the season opener last year and missed the remainder of the schedule. At wide receiver, Derek Kinder returns from a torn ACL to lead the Pitt receiving corps.  Joining him at wideout are last year's leading receiver Oderick Turner and Freshman Army All-American Jonathan Baldwin, one of the most sought after recruits in the nation.  The main question mark for the Pitt offense is the offensive line which only returns 2 starters and will feature converted defensive lineman John Maleki at Right Guard.  This unit and its ability to open up holes for McCoy is critical for the success of this offense.

Bowling Green returns several starters from a defense that was miserable at times last year and among the worst in the FBS in rush defense.  The Falcons are the returning Mid American Conference East Division Champions and are favored to win the conference this year.  Last years 8-5 finish was good enough to win the MAC, but against Tulsa in the GMAC Bowl, they were trounced by a score of 63-7 with the defense obviously not holding the dynamic Tulsa offense at bay.  That defense's play will be a deciding factor in whether Bowling Green can hang in there tommorrow.

Overall, I expect the Panther offense and LeSean McCoy to have their way with the Falcon defense.  What remains to be seen, however, is how well Stull will play.  He doesn't have to be spectacular, but he does need to be able to connect on a few deep passing plays to ensure that BG cannot stack the box against the run.  He must effectively manage the game and limit his mistakes and turnovers.

Bowling Green offense vs. Pittsburgh Defense

Bowling Green comes into this game as a team built around and carried by it's offensive scheme.  Fifth year Head Coach Gregg Brandon employs the popular spread offense first instituted at BG by Urban Meyer.  They are led by Junior quarterback Tyler Sheehan, who is an efficient passer and manager of Brandon's complex offense.    

At Running back, the Panthers caught a major break when they learned that starter Willie Geter would be suspended for Saturday's game.  His backup Chris Bullock is a very servicable replacement and will test the panther defense. At receiver, Bowling Green has the depth and experience to cause problems for a Pitt secondary that will feature two new starters.

On defense, Pitt returns seven starters from last years top 10 unit, including all-american linebacker Scott McKillop who led the nation in tackles last season.  However the linebacker corps has taken a major hit however, with an injury to outside linebacker Shane Murray.  Murray is listed as day-to-day, but it appears that he will miss this game.  The person most likely to take his place is Jr Austin Ransom, who was just moved to linebacker this spring.  Ransom is a tremendous athlete who runs a 4.5 second 40 yard dash, but it remains to be seen whether he will be up to the challenge mentally.

One aspect of the Pitt defense that is expected to be strong is the defensive line where six players expect to see significant playing time.  At tackle returning starters Rashaad Duncan and Mick Williams will be joined by returning contributors Gus Mustakas and Tommie Duhart, each of whom saw significant playing time.  At end, Greg Romeus looks to build on a strong Freshman Campaign and will be joined by Sophomore Jabaal Sheard, of whom big things are expected.

The secondary returns two starters in Cornerback Aaron Berry and Free safety Eric Thatcher.  Joining them are corners Jovani Chappel and Ricky Gary, both of whom made big contirbutions off the bench.  At Free Safety, both Dom DeCicco and Elijah Fields are expected to share playing time.  This unit returns both talent and experience and should be very good.

Pitt's defense is expected to be challenged by the unorthodox Bowling Green attack, but in the end, I think the Panthers have too much talent and athleticism.

Keys to the Game

Will Bill Stull be able to effectively manage the game and limit his mistakes?

Will Pitt's Offensive Line be able to open up holes for McCoy?

Can the Pitt defense contain the spread offense?

Will Pitt's lack of depth at linebacker hurt them?

Will Bowling Green be able to run the ball without Geter?

Pitt faces a tougher challenge in their first game than most teams do.  Bowling Green has an experienced, winning football team and will push Pitt early on, but in the end, Pitt has too much talent for the Falcons to win.

Pittsburgh 35, Bowling Green 10

For More analysis on Pitt Football and national sports news, tune into my radio show Wednesdays 4:30-5:00 on 92.1 WPTS-Pittsburgh.  It can be found on line at http://www.wpts.pitt.edu/.