FanNation - The Republic of Sport

So far, no surprises. The "30% chance of beating Cal" assessment from the first installment in this series was spot-on. Right down to the final minute of play, that was still true.

So the updated version is as follows, taking into account the first week of games. More or less, I'm sticking with the 7-5 regular season projection and didn't see much reason to change any of this too dramatically...

Eastern Michigan -- 90% chance of win (previously 90%)
Nothing changes here. Eastern had a big win over a tiny team.

Florida Atlantic -- 75% chance of W (previously 70%)
Texas took them apart. I had thought Florida Atlantic, supposedly a new breed of competitive Sun Belt team, might make it closer. I'm getting a little more confident in this ugly trap game.

Notre Dame -- 70% chance of W (previously same)
No reason to change yet, as we haven't seen ND play.

@ Indiana -- 65% chance of W (previously same)
Western Kentucky is playing its first full year in FBS, isn't expected to do well at all and Indiana beat them in their own building 31-13. Nothing impresses me yet.

Iowa -- 60% chance of W (previously same)
Ditto as Indiana. No new information that warrants a change. Iowa played and destroyed Maine, obviously an FCS team. We'd probably know more news about Iowa if they'd just played an inter-squad scrimmage on Saturday. Michigan State should have beat Iowa last year @ Iowa, and should beat them this year at home.

@Northwestern -- 70% chance of W (previously 60%)
This one changes because Northwestern gave Syracuse a chance to beat them at home. Watching them @ Duke next week will be very interesting.

Ohio State -- 30% chance of W (previously same)
Nothing new learned about Ohio State. The small chance of Chris Wells not playing looks like the only chance of this prediction moving in MSU's favor.

@Michigan -- 55% chance of W (previously a toss up)
Their offense as bad as I expected. The only surprise there is how weak the running game turned out to be. Their defense is solid, but not yet going to the next level to make up for the offensive problems. The Utah game should have been more lopsided, but for Utah shooting itself in the foot.

Wisconsin -- toss up (previously 45% chance of win)
They led Akron by seven at the half. I'm thinking Wisconsin is a slightly better team than MSU with slightly bigger kinks in their system to fix right now. This is a great year to get them at home.

Purdue -- 65% chance of W (previously same)
Purdue didn't play this week. I still think they're one of the Big Ten's weakest teams (though Minnesota is making a strong case with the Northern Illinois performance.)

@Penn State -- 30% chance of W (previously same)
Another FCS opponent, another blowout. Nothing new known about the Lions except that MSU can't beat them in Happy Valley.