• 06:13 AM ET  09.03
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Much has been made about strength of schedule.  It has been used in arguments to minimize a team's achievments - as in - "they win a lot, but they don't play anybody."  It has also been used to build up a team that may not have achieved so much - as in - "they are only 7-5 because they play in the SEC - in the ACC or Big East they'd be 10-2"  Teams become well known for their scheduling tendencies.  Like Kansas State who rose to prominence by scheduling all non-conference gimmes,  or Fresno State who has developed the reputation of being a team that'll play anybody, anywhere, anytime. 

I was curious - who really are the most courageous schedulers and who are the most timid schedulers?  So I took all 120 FBS teams and assigned them a strength from 1 to 7 based on their performance over the last 8 seasons.  Then I plugged those numbers into their non-confrence schedules to see who played the toughest opponents.  Since conference game scheduling is out of their hands - I ignored that - and focused only on the non-conference games.  Thus I game up with a number that represents the average strength of each teams non-conference opponents over the years 2004 through 2008 - five years of schedules.  For example; for Wake Forest it is 3.17, and for Mississippi it is 2.22. 

The top 10 most courageous schedulers are;

1 USC.....................5.07

2 Washington............4.60

3 UCLA ...................4.27

4 Colorado ..............4.11

4 North Carolina .......4.11

6 Oregon St .............4.07

7 Oregon .................3.87

7 Stanford ................3.87

9 Syracuse ...............3.83

9 Oklahoma ..............3.83

 

The 10 most Timid Schedulers are

1 Texas Tech .............1.72

2 Oklahoma St ...........2.00

3 Connecticut .............2.08

4 Missouri ..................2.17

5 Baylor ....................2.22

5 Mississippi ...............2.22

7 Indiana ..................2.28

7 Alabama .................2.28

7 Mississippi St ............2.28

10 Rutgers ..................2.32

 

 

BCS Conference scheduling leaders and losers

 

SEC  Georgia (3.56)  Mississippi (2.22)

Big Ten  Ohio St (3.72)  Indiana (2.28)

Big 12  Colorado (4.11) Texas Tech  (1.72)

ACC  North Carolina (4.11)  BC (2.67)

Pac 10 USC (5.07)  Washington St (2.60)

Big East  Syracuse (3.83) Conn (2.08)

September 3, 2008  10:17 AM ET

You really have to give the Pac-10 credit. We dont eat a lot of cupcakes on the left coast. USC, UCLA, Washington and Notre Dame are the only Div1A schools to have never played a 1AA school. This season in the Pac-10 only ASU[go figure] and WSU play a 1AA school. If you look at the rest of the "big time" conference scheduals you will find only a few teams in each that DONT play a cupcake.... SEC-3, Big-10-1, BigXII-3, ACC-1, and then theres the Pac-10 with 8 teams that dont play a pushover.

And yes a BIG tip o the hat to Pat Hill at Fresno St.

September 3, 2008  10:34 AM ET

"Since conference game scheduling is out of their hands - I ignored that - and focused only on the non-conference games."
h
This is one of the most interesting blogs I have read in a while so great job. Of course it would be a little more valid if the conference games were considered. For example Ole Miss plays LSU, Auburn, Alabama, Arkansas every single season and then they play 2 teams from the east with either Georgia, Florida, Tenn, South Carolina, or Kentucky. So by scheduling some gimme's is a must. I did enjoy the analysis.

September 3, 2008  01:03 PM ET

The Pac 10 does a very good job scheduling OoC.

Inter-conference games definitely affect how a team schedules their out of conference games. Every game shouldn't be brutal.

September 3, 2008  05:28 PM ET

just a thought.... if you are going to rate an overall strength of schedule, you have to look at the entire schedule regardless of whether or not teams have a say in their conference schedule or not. If you were to do so, your analysis would fall apart. USC's schedule for instance is nowhere near as tough as at least 5 SEC team schedules. USC has to schedule tough out of conference games in order to have any kind of strength of schedule comparatively speaking. If USC were to play in the SEC, they would be lucky to end the season with only 1-2 losses. But, anyone can use certain criteria that benefits his or her team. Good try.

September 3, 2008  06:56 PM ET

GivetheDAWGS, Hey I'm just tired about all the talk of how tough the SEC is! C'mon, other than Georgia, Florida, LSU, Auburn and Bama....if it weren't for those powerhouses the SEC could be as good as any other conference. Good blog.

September 4, 2008  07:54 AM ET

I am not sure about a few but solid points..

September 4, 2008  09:13 AM ET

Why does an interesting blog have to be questioned by the typical SEC crap?

We all know the SEC is good, but thats not what he is talking about at all.

He even explains it in the blog! Good stuff, very interesting look at schedules!

September 4, 2008  02:08 PM ET

I'm in favor of big-time programs scheduling yearly or bi-yearly games with a local school to spread some of the wealth, e.g., Oregon playing Portland State or even Ohio State playing Youngstown State.

The time for calling the question is when the non-conference schedule is all cupcake or bottom feeders.

I think the AP voters did exactly the right thing this past week by rewarding USC for playing a BCS opponent and dropping Georgia for scheduling a gimme.

September 4, 2008  05:45 PM ET

Think what you want...but the PAC10 is full of gimmes. No PAC10 team could survive in the SEC. And it's not just me who feels that way. Just listen to ESPN or any other media. No PAC10 team...including USC would play an SEC schedule and come out unscathed. They would be lucky to have only 2 losses. The SEC does schedule some easier out of conference opponents. So what. The PAC10 is full of easy opponents. And by the way...All USC did was beat a team from the weakest BCS conference.....also a team that is picked to finish either last or next to last in that weak conference.....Virginia will more than likely only win 2 or 3 games this season. So....Who played the cupcake....Georgia Southern would beat Virginia. Also....as a side note....Georgia could have easily run up the score....but instead...they played 21 freshman.....a third string quarterback.....etc.... Come back to me when you have a legitamate argument.....

September 4, 2008  05:48 PM ET

legitimate....lol

September 4, 2008  06:33 PM ET

I don't know when the USC-Virginia game was scheduled, but those things are usually done a few years in advance. The Cavs have gone 8-4 (2004), 7-5 (2005), 5-7 (2006), and 9-4 (2007). Not a great record, for sure, but not shabby. In two weeks, USC is playing Ohio State, which no one will confuse with a cupcake.

Georgia Southern was a tremendous team as recently as 2001, the year Paul Johnson left for Navy. Since then, it's been solid but hardly outstanding.

I actually have no trouble with Georgia scheduling a game with Georgia Southern; it's good for regional football programs. Even so, the Bulldogs should not be rewarded in the polls for it. Had Georgia beaten a BCS team on the road as soundly as USC beat Virginia, then pollsters would have been vindicated (in my mind) in keeping them the no. 1 team.

September 4, 2008  07:23 PM ET

Who cares when the game was scheduled....Should USC be rewarded for Virginia's meidocre past or their horrible present. And by the way...doesn't Georgia play the big powerhouse Arizona State this year....But you are probably right ...that IS a cupcake game also....We shouldn't schedule such scrubs.....PAC10 and all.... Also...the rose bowl could have asked the SEC to allow Georgia to play last year...however...they opted for the "Big" matchup...with Illinois...what a laugh....Who faced a cupcake when in really mattered....USC...that's who....again...come back when you have a valid point...

September 4, 2008  07:29 PM ET

Oh yean...by the way...you referenced Ohio State....Who demolished them the past two seasons....SEC.......nuff said....Good luck

September 4, 2008  09:23 PM ET

Hmm. Relative conference strength isn't really the issue at hand. Non-conference strength of schedule is. Like I said, I don't think Georgia scheduling Georgia Southern is out of line, but it proves nothing to the pollsters except that the Bulldogs can ramrod a "football championship subdivision' school. Wow, there's an insight!

Kudos to Georgia for scheduling the game against AZ State. That's the sort of game a school with eyes on the national title should be scheduling. I don't think the Sun Devils are as good as the pollsters suggest, but Dennis Erickson is a fine coach and will field a well prepared team against an obviously talented Georgia squad.

 
September 5, 2008  05:35 AM ET

Your insights are truly laughable as is your logic. Oh well, good luck to you and your PACifier10.

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