FanNation - The Republic of Sport

Congratulations to Cliff Lee, Major League Baseball???s first 20 game winner in 2008. Lee???s 20-2 record is even more impressive when one considers that the Cleveland Indians are only 67-71 (through September 4). Amazingly, Lee has posted a .909 winning percentage for a team that???s only 47-69 (.405) in games in which he doesn???t receive the decision. Despite Lee???s league leading total he???s no threat to become baseball???s first 30 game winner since Denny McLain. Will there ever be another 30 game winner? What sort of numbers does a pitcher need to produce to reach the 30 win plateau? The foremost reason that no one wins 30 contests is that pitchers simply don???t start enough games anymore. Denny McLain???s 1968 season, as great as it was, was far from perfect. McLain went 31-6 in 41 starts for the Tigers. His winning percentage was ???only??? .838; figure in four no-decisions and he wins 75.6 percent of his starts. Today a pitcher will typically lead the league with 35 starts; if he wins 75.6 percent of them he???ll record 26 wins. A winning percentage similar to Denny McLain???s just isn???t good enough in today???s game. To achieve 30 victories a pitcher needs to win 85.7 percent (30 out of 35) of his starts. Using the Pythagorean method of forecasting wins and losses we can easily determine the ERA necessary to win 85.7 percent of 35 starts. The typical major league team in 2008 scores 4.63 runs per game. Given average support a starting pitcher would need to surrender no more than 1.89 runs per nine innings to position himself for 30 wins. In 2008 approximately seven percent of all runs are unearned, so our 30 game winner???s ERA would actually look more like 1.76. Of course, these numbers assume average run support. The Texas Rangers??? offense scores 5.45 runs per game ??? the best in baseball. With 5.45 runs to work with our 30 game winner could surrender 2.22 runs per game with an ERA around 2.06 ??? assuming he could keep his ERA that low pitching in Arlington. To complete the thought, Oakland and San Diego are scoring a major league low 3.86 runs per game. To win 30 of 35 starts for either of these clubs one would need an ERA of 1.46. Returning to average support, an ERA of 1.76 or less has been recorded seven times since 1968. The prerequisite ERA, while extraordinary, isn???t unreachable ??? so why hasn???t anyone won 30 games? Two of the ERAs occurred in strike years (Nolan Ryan in 1981 and Greg Maddux in 1994). Two came in the 1970s (Ron Guidry 1978 and Tom Seaver 1971) when fewer runs were scored ??? according to the Pythagorean theory neither Guidry nor Seaver pitched well enough to win 30 games when run adjustments are made. This leaves us with Greg Maddux with a 1.63 ERA in 1995 (another shortened season; Maddux had only 28 starts), Pedro Martinez in 2000 (1.74 ERA in 29 starts) and Dwight Gooden (1.53 ERA in 1985, 35 starts). With fewer than 30 starts neither Maddux nor Martinez, obviously, was a threat to match McLain. More on Gooden later. Is it possible that someone will post a sub 1.75 ERA in 35 starts and win 30 games, even pitching for an average team? Probably not. Until there???s a dramatic change in pitching strategy it???s unlikely that there will be another 30 game winner. In 1968 Denny McLain pitched 28 complete game victories. He was largely the master of his own fate; nevertheless, he did need a little help. How many times did relievers blow saves behind McLain? The answer is exactly once. In his last start of the season, September 28 against Washington, McLain left the game after seven innings leading 1-0. Don McMahon gave up two runs in the ninth, denying McLain his 32nd win. Except for that one game the Tiger bullpen was effective, securing three more victories for McLain. No one today pitches 28 complete game victories. Starters are too dependent on their bullpens to win 30 games. Let???s ???go Pythagorean??? one more time. Let???s assume our possible 30 game winner averages seven innings per start ??? 245 innings, a real workhorse by today???s standard. This means he needs his bullpen to pick up the other two innings. The average major league bullpen has an ERA of 4.03. Allowing 7% more unearned runs, they surrender about 4.31 runs per nine or 0.958 runs in their two innings of work. Remember, to win 30 games for a typical team the pitcher must keep his runs allowed below 1.89 per nine. The bullpen just surrendered 0.958 of those 1.89 runs. The starter can only allow 0.932 runs in his seven innings of work. That means that after making adjustments for unearned runs the starter must maintain an ERA of 1.11 or less to win 30 times. No one???s going to record a 1.11 ERA. We might argue that the average bullpen ERA of 4.03 is misleading because it includes pitchers performing mop-up duty. Let???s assume an outstanding bullpen backs up our potential 30 game winner. If the bullpen averages an ERA of 3.00 the starter still must post a 1.41 ERA; if the bullpen is truly remarkable and contributes an ERA of 2.50 the starter must have an ERA of 1.55. Only one man, Dwight Gooden, has recorded an ERA below 1.55 in 35 or more starts since 1968. Gooden went 24-4 with 16 complete game victories for the 1985 Mets. His bullpen blew three saves and in six of his no-decisions or losses the Mets scored two runs or less (0 runs twice, 1 run twice, 2 runs twice). Gooden had an ERA (1.53) that gave him a chance to win 30 times but he didn???t catch enough breaks. Gooden???s example demonstrates the unlikelihood that we???ll see another 30 game winner; no one today throws 16 complete game victories or 276 innings as Gooden did in 1985. No one positions themselves to make a realistic run at 30 wins. The one man that came close, Bob Welch (27 wins in 1990) had a great bullpen behind him but he didn???t pitch well enough to earn 30 wins. Welch???s ERA (2.95) was too high; he pitched poorly in six of his eight losses or no-decisions. It???s hard enough for one pitcher, a starter, to keep his runs allowed below 1.89 per game, but to ask a starter and an entire bullpen to maintain an approximate standard is, pragmatically, impossible. Until pitchers start and complete more games, or until the improbability of a superior starter teamed with an outstanding bullpen and league leading offense is realized, Denny McLain???s 31 win season will never be matched.