Spartan Seasons -- 2008:III | Beautiful Day for Football

I've vacillated between predicting a 7-5 or 8-4 finish all summer. All along, I suspected a 1-1 start, so nothing Michigan State has done so far changes my mind.

What has changed is that some of their competition is NOT playing up to expectations, and so I think I'm ready to decide on 8-4 as the likely ending...

Florida Atlantic -- 75% chance of win (originally 70%)

FAU didn't really roll on UAB, and UAB doesn't look that good. Combine with getting blasted by Texas, rather than keeping it close, and I'm starting to think FAU isn't what they were expected to be.

Notre Dame -- 75% chance of W (originally 70%)

San Diego State very well could (and probably should) have beaten them in South Bend. SDST lost to Cal Poly last week. A very rusty, mistake-prone looking team right now.

@Indiana -- 65% chance of W (originally same)

Indiana isn't playing anybody, but isn't letting the nobodies get close to them. At any rate, it's hard to envision MSU letting Indiana do them damage when they played Cal so well on the road.

Iowa -- 60% chance of W (originally same)

Florida International goes down hard. Just like Maine. Bleah. What does this mean? I like MSU's resume a lot better, but Iowa is doing what is being asked of them.

@Northwestern -- 75% chance of W (originally 60%)

Almost lost to Syracuse... and Duke... The ugliest 2-0 you can get.

Ohio State -- 40% chance of W (originally 30%)

Maybe the Ohio game means Ohio State isn't what was expected. Maybe it means they were looking past Ohio to the USC game. If it's the latter, then I'd note that they get Penn State after playing Michigan State. In any case, a tiny glimmer of hope enters the picture for this game.

@Michigan -- 60% chance of W (originally a toss up)

This is not the old Michigan. It may eventually turn into something comparable, but right now the offense makes this half a football team.

Wisconsin -- toss up (originally 45% chance of win)

MSU is looking the equal of Wisconsin. Losing close to Cal and smashing Eastern Michigan is comparable to winning modestly over Akron and blowing out Marshall (after going down 14-0 to start.)

Purdue -- 65% chance of W (originally same)

Yawn. Wake me when they play one of the 119 teams in their own division.

@Penn State -- 30% chance of W (originally same)

Treating Oregon State like it was mediocre MAC team was a frightful thing. (And, as always, we DO NOT win in Happy Valley.)

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