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Notre Dame @ Michigan State -8.5

That's a good point spread. Against Michigan and a woefully awful San Diego State, Notre Dame's echoes got up for some sleepwalking but otherwise yawned and went back to bed. Barring the early loss due to injury to an important MSU starter (Ringer, Hoyer, receivers, a veteran offensive lineman, almost anybody on defense...) Michigan State should defeat the Irish by at least a touchdown.

I presume there's no reason to dispute the relative schedule strengths between the two teams and their reactions to those games. Michigan isn't Cal. San Diego State isn't Florida Atlantic... or maybe even Eastern Michigan.

Michigan State has been a no-surprises operation thus far. Against each of its opponents, they put up the fight that was expected: A narrow loss on the road against one of the Pac-10's best, a blowout win at home vs. the MAC's lowliest, and a comfortable win at home vs. what should be the Sun Belt's best.

Notre Dame, by contrast, nearly lost at home to what is likely one of the nation's very worst football teams. That same weekend, Michigan tried to give away a game at home to one of the MAC's (at best) mediocre teams; and against Notre Dame, Michigan finally met a willing taker.

In the big picture, little that Notre Dame has done argues for a win in East Lansing.

Take the Michigan game by the numbers...

Notre Dame offense

Notre Dame put up 260 yards of offense vs Michigan. Put together, Michigan's 79 penalty yards and 80 yards in passing by Michigan QB Nick Sheridan to two Notre Dame defenders was more than half as effective for Notre Dame as having the actual Irish offense on the field -- an offense that now ranks 90th nationally.

The Irish had just 14 total first downs -- 5 by run, 4 by pass and 5 by penalty. And the 6-2 turnover advantage was other-worldly to Notre Dame's favor, easily worth the difference in the final score and then some.

In short, Notre Dame's best offensive play was Michigan shooting themselves in the foot.

Notre Dame defense

With Chamber of Commerce weather the previous week vs Miami of Ohio, Michigan's offense managed just 281 yards and 15 first downs. In drizzle and then heavy rain against Notre Dame, those numbers cranked up to 388 yards and 21 first downs.

One of the previously hapless Michigan QB's -- Steven Threet -- found his footing in the rain against ND, going 16-23 for 175 with 1 TD and zero INT's (though 2 fumbles.) The other, Nick Sheridan, was a perfect 5-5, but two of those were to two Irish defenders for the aformentioned 80 yards in INT returns.

In hindsight, inserting Sheridan was clearly a mistake made by Rodriguez, forced by his (then) still doubtful QB situation. Unless something goes horribly, awfully wrong, Michigan State will not be replacing Brian Hoyer with Nick Sheridan. The Irish will need to stop a veteran QB who threw all of 7 INT's during 12 regular season games last year -- #2 in the Big Ten for pass efficiency last year -- and knows very well where all of his receivers are at.

There was also the boatload of yardage allowed to true-freshman Sam McGuffie, a lot of which appeared to be because Notre Dame's DC had decided to blitz the Michigan QB's on more than half of the downs -- often sending a capable tackler out of position and flying past the guy carrying the ball.

Do that again with Javon Ringer on the field. Please, please, try it.

Notre Dame's defense is ranked 70th nationally after playing two of the very worst offenses in all of the nation.

Jimmy Clausen

The ability of the ND offensive line to keep him upright was a refreshing change from their "Surrender Monkey" routine last season. But a lot of that was massively over-protecting with extra blockers and tossing the ball quickly out of bounds (perhaps because too many potential receivers were in blocking?) The numbers bear this out, as Clausen was a modest (to be generous) 10-21 for 147 with 2 TD and 2 INT's.

And, again, it can't be overstated that getting your opponent to turn the ball over 6 times in the rain (not to mention spotting you 14 pts on turnovers to begin the game) does a lot to take the pressure off the QB to make big plays.

In sum...

Notre Dame's one "big win" was against an opponent still on a three week suicide binge of trying to give away football games. Michigan State is playing at home with a team that has been tested against and done better against much more formidable opposition.

I was impressed by some of Clausen's throws and Golden Tate's ability to catch them. They will get a couple of big plays to work. But not enough to win.

MSU 38
Notre Dame 28