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I'm sticking on my 8-4 prediction for the final record. In the big picture, every game has gone as originally expected so far. I expected to be 2-1 at this point with a narrow loss at Cal. Adjustments from the preseason projection as noted...

Notre Dame -- 75% chance of W (originally 70%)

I had this game the same way last week. Nothing they did against the team that tried to lose to Miami of Ohio makes me think that the Irish have improved any from the team that tried to lose to San Diego State. Michigan's turnovers and penalties slowed down the Michigan offense which, remarkably, managed to move the ball for a change -- in the rain -- on Notre Dame's defense.

@Indiana -- 65% chance of W (originally same)

After bruisng battles with Western Kentucky and Murray State, Indiana was ready to take a week off before facing Ball State this weekend in their "tune up" game before playing Michigan State. I think Ball State -- let alone Michigan State -- can beat Indiana.

Iowa -- 60% chance of W (originally same)

This is unchanged from last week. They are getting the job done, but Maine, Florida International, and Iowa State are hardly good barometers to test them. I still like MSU's chances because it is at home.

@Northwestern -- 75% chance of W (originally 60%)

75% is unchanged from last week. Letting Syracuse keep it close for too long, then nearly losing to Duke (again) followed by a thumping of a 1-AA team. Nothing remotely worrisome from this group yet.

Ohio State -- 40% chance of W (originally 30%)

Unchanged from last week. The USC game proved the value of Beanie Wells. If he's going full speed coming into the MSU game, then this estimate goes down at least 5 pts. If he doesn't, it goes up. Right now, who knows? I'm starting to think there's a ray of hope, but not more than that.

@Michigan -- 60% chance of W (originally a toss up)

Unchanged from last week. The game's in Ann Arbor and emotions make too many weird things happen for this to be any easier of a call. I do think Michigan eventually figures out how to play some semblance of an offense and it might happen by this game. Weirdly, I actually buy into what their mouthy player said this week: They probably are better than Notre Dame. Or, at very least, they are more than capable of playing better, and they probably will for this game.

Wisconsin -- 45% chance of W (originally 45% chance of win)

I moved this briefly to "toss up" status last week after they finished sleepwalking past Akron and Marshall. I'm not sure if they deserve to be the highest ranked team in the conference after beating Fresno State -- I think Penn State has shown more and Ohio State hasn't gone away -- but it's a good case to argue. And thus, they should beat Michigan State.

Purdue -- 60% chance of W (originally 65%)

Playing Oregon tight showed something. Not sure what, just yet, but they are not a pushover -- it's a good game to be playing at home. I called them one of the worst teams in the conference at the beginning of the year and I'm looking a bit wrong just now.

@Penn State -- 30% chance of W (originally same)

This was a bad situation from the get-go and Penn State continues to play like the unexpected terror that I originally worried over. Could they be playing for a perfect season by the time this game rolls around? If Mark Dantonio hasn't yet lost a game by more than 7 pts by this point, then it probably happens here.