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With the start of Blues' training camp upon us, I thought I would put together my thoughts on the team as they head into the season.   Many, if not most, pre-season prognosticators are giving the Blues high marks for their player development efforts of the last couple of years, but giving them little to no chance of making the playoffs this year.   While I admit that the Blues will be relying on several key young players this year, I disagree that they have no shot at a playoff berth.   I actually look for them to hang tough in a very difficult Western conference and compete for the last couple of playoff spots.   Remember this team was right in the thick of the playoff race for the first 60-65% of the season, until a late season slump over the last 25 games or so.  A couple of things contributed heavily to this drop off:  1) a horrid power play that ranked last in the league, and actually seemed to get worse as the season wore on; and 2)  the wearing out of Manny Legace, who got little rest late in the season as Andy Murray clearly lost all confidence in backup Hannu Toivenen.    Those two figures contributed heavily to a daunting total of 24 one-goal losses.   While that is a pretty glum figure that points to the overall lack of offense, it also shows that this team was not far from contention last year.

John Davidson has built this team the right way, focusing on player development, solid drafts, and building the organization from within.   This is a fresh perspective after decades of seeing the Blues built around trades and big dollar free-agent pickups.  The Blues figure to continue with the influx of youth this season, primarily on the forward lines.   A look at the key areas:

Forwards:   The Blues enter the season with quite a bit of depth on the forward line......IF the young guys make the team and contribute.   The Blues expect both TJ Oshie and Patrik Berglund to make the team and have an impact, and if they do, it should help the Blues improve on a goal scoring total that ranked 26^th in the league in 2007-2008.    The keys:

1) The Kids:   Berglund, Oshie and David Perron must continue to develop and help the team build toward the future.   Perron is a sniper who could become dominant on the power play, but showed a lack of commitment to Defense last year, drawing the occasional ire of Murray and his teammates.   Berglund and Oshie are considered the future, and both made a significant impression at the Traverse City Prospects Tourney this year.   The continued overall development of these three will be a key to this year and beyond;

2)  Paul Kariya:   Needs to produce more than the 16 goals he did last season if the Blues are going to improve the offense.   After a hot start, Kariya slumped badly with the rest of the team toward the end of the season.  He has gone on a new off-season conditioning program that will hopefully increase his stamina and production in 2008-2009;

3) Lee Stempniak:   after a breakout 2006-2007 campaign when he scored 27 goals, he slipped back to 13 last year.   The Blues need him to return to form to help get the offense and the power play going again.  

If these three things fall into place, the Blues will be in good shape.   With top scorer Brad Boyes unlikely to repeat his 43 goal performance, the Blues will be looking to find production wherever they can get it.   The five guys mentioned above will be complemented by veterans like Boyes, Keith Tkachuk, Jay McClement, and Andy MacDonald, who can provide offense and leadership.

The penalty kill will be a concern with the losses of Jamal Mayers and Ryan Johnson, as they were two of the primary penalty killers on the forward lines.  This could lead to a lot more ice time for Dan Hinote and Yan Stastny.

Defense:  The continued development of Erik Johnson into one of the top defenseman in the game will be a key to this unit in 2008-2009.   The top four of Johnson, Jay McKee, captain Eric Brewer, and Barrett Jackman are as solid defensively as anybody.   This group is probably also a key to the power play improvement.   With Kariya, Tkachuk, MacDonald, Perron etc up front, the Blues have the ability to score in front of the net, but are in desperate need of more blueline production on the power play.    Too often last year, teams closed the box, daring the defenseman to shoot from the point.   This clogged up the middle and made the forwards less effective going after tips and rebounds.   The development of Johnson should help this situation, but they key person may be Brewer.   He scored only 1 goal last year in 77 games, and he must become more of a threat from the point.    

Young Steve Wagner, along with Jeff Woywitka, Mike Weaver, Roman Polak and newcomer Andy Wozniewski will provide blueline depth.  Top pick Alex Pietrangelo may start the season in the minors, but could contribute by mid-year.

Goaltending:  The off-season acquisition of Chris Mason from Nashville may be one of the Blues' most important moves.   It gives the Blues a second #1-type goalie to not only spell starter Manny Legace, but also to push him.   The presence of a second trusted goalie last year may have led to a different second half outcome.   The Mason acquisition provides stability and depth the Blues lacked last year.

 Synopsis:  The Blues will absolutely be heavily dependent on the youth that Davidson has stockpiled the last few years, but there is enough ability here to compete for a playoff spot.   A lot of things need to fall into place, and the power play MUST improve.   If the Blues get a couple of the pieces mentioned here to fall into place, though, we could be looking at the start of a new playoff streak.