Not quite a full slate this week in the SEC, but there is one very big game Saturday night. But I will get to that a little later.
I thought I would post this early so everyone would have the chance to chime in with their thoughts and comments.
Last week I was 7 out of 8. (http://www.fannation.com/message_boards/show_topic/1261) I thought for sure that Miss State's D would man-up and stop Tech. Either I over estimated MSU or underestimate Tech's option attack.
The picks are in order of start times.
Ole Miss @ Florida - IF the Gators are all they are supposed to be, this one should be over early. However, this might not be as easy as last week vs the Vols. The Rebels appear to have a somewhat better passing game with Snead than Tennessee has and the Gators secondary might get tested a bit. But I think ultimately that Florida has just too many weapons and a coaching advantage over Ole Miss.
Arkansas @ Texas - We haven't seen much of what the Horns have yet this year (having only faced the football powerhouses of Florida Atlantic, UTEP and RIce), but we have seen what Arkansas has. Last week the Hogs at times moved the ball well against Bama, but shot themselves in the foot - often and severely. And Texas is giving up 340.7 yards average on defense to some really weak teams. I would like to be wrong about this one and would love to see the Hogs rebound and pull the upset, but I just think that the combination youth, mistakes, and not a lot of talent on defense will mean a long day in Austin.
Tennessee @ Auburn - I call this one The Battle of the Dazed & Confused. Ok, call me a Homer, but as any Alabama fan would tell you, we have to love this situation. The Vols looked completely outclassed last week against the Gators. Poor quarterback play, Foster not running with any heart behind not much blocking, and the defense looking nothing like Tennessee defenses of old. I think Fulmer's better days have passed him by. Auburn has not looked much better in earlier games, but they did play LSU down to the wire thanks to a hard-playing defense. They certainly have played with more heart. Auburn's offense should have an easier go against the Vols D. That and the home field make me think that the Tigers pull one out. I will be surprised if the final score total is more than 24 points.
W. Kentucky @ Kentucky - On first glance this looks like a no-brainer. But sometimes Kentucky has a way of blowing a game they should have won. Still, I have to go with Kentucky.
UAB @ South Carolina - This one may be like clubbing baby seals. Tennessee trashed the Blazers and you have to believe that the **** are a better team that the Vols. I look for the Ball Coach to put this one away early and play a lot of folks.
Miss State @ LSU - This one really depends on which MSU defense shows up - the one that worked over Auburn or the one that laid down for Tech. Regardless of which D shows up, the Dogs offense still stinks on ice - far and away the worse in the SEC. The MSU defense will only determine how badly LSU beats them, but beat them they will.
Alabama @ Georgia - THE game of the week in the SEC and the NCAA. A classic SEC showdown that will feature a whole lot of hard hitting. Only in the SEC do you get this kind of matchup in week 5. I have really agonized over how I would pick this one. I have tried hard to set aside my Crimson colored glasses and look at the matchups analytically and logically. And there are a lot of factors here (please bear with me - some of this is sort of rambling but I am writing as I run it thru my mind):
1. JP Wilson. How will he play? We just don't know which JP will show up - the one that was near perfect against Clemson or the one that looked only average vs Tulane. I think it is crucial that Bama not put him in the position where he has to win it with his arm. But you have to know that Georgia will load up the box and dare him to throw. However, if he comes in hot, with our crop of receivers, it would be a huge factor and really open up the running game.
2. Bama's DBs vs Stafford and Company. Georgia loves to pass off of the play action game. If they get their running game going consistently, then it is going to put a lot of pressure on the Bama secondary. Bama's DBs have have been playing very well this season - particularly in the man-under coverage. I like the match-up of Arenas vs Green as both are highly skilled and great athletes. It will be very interesting to watch them work against one another. If Bama gets a strong rush on Stafford, forcing quick reads and to throw on the run, then the edge will be for Bama. But no rush will give Stafford plenty of time in the pocket where he is most comfortable and give the Dawgs the advantage.
3. Special teams - In Javier Arenas, Bama has a clear advantage in this area. It will be interesting to see if the Dawgs punt to him or choose to do as Arkansas did and kick for the boundary. In Arkansas's case it didn't work real well as they still ended up giving away field position due to lousy punts. Arenas could end up being a game breaker.
4. In The Trenches. THIS is where it gets real interesting. Georgia is starting two freshman against a very talented and physical Bama front 7. IF Bama can win that battle and stuff the run, then it will take away the play action passing game from Stafford. It would also mean that Stafford would have to spend more time in the gun which is not a strong running set for Georgia. Moreno is at his best running downhill with a fullback leading the way. Lining up in the "I" lets him have better speed coming to the line and better vision for his cuts. But also consider that he hasn't faced a defense this year with the team speed that Bama has. However, if Bama doesn't play sound assignment defense, Moreno will kill them on the cutbacks. South Carolina held Georgia to a very modest offensive performance and I believe that Bama's D is better that SC's. So, I have to give Bama the edge in their D-line vs Georgia's O-line.
Bama's offensive line has been solid so far this year, blowing big holes for the running lanes and keeping the pressure off of JP. They will have to have their best game of the year against a Georgia D that ranks 3rd in the nation (Bama only trails them by 5 places and a little less than 10 yard APG) in rush defense. Although, Georgia hasn't faced a real rush offense this year - until now. And Bama hasn't faced a real rush defense - until now. Bama's O-line is playing much better this year with the added year of playing together. They are also finally developing some depth. Bama MUST get their running game in gear early both to wear down the Dawg defense and to keep the Georgia offense off the field. Both Coffee and Ingram have been at their best running between the tackles with power, but this will be their toughest test.. This will be strength against strength for both teams. To be honest, I just don't know how to pick this O-line vs D-line matchup.
The Bottom Line. Last year's game, with many of the same cast and characters, was a virtual dead heat statistically and on the field. I think the difference this year is the improved play (and talent) on Bama's line of scrimmage. Most all football games are won by the team that can win the battle in the trenches and I think that Bama has just enough of an edge there that it will be the difference. I have tried to be logical about this (and I am quite sure many will disagree) and weigh all the matchups. But I keep coming back to the offensive and defensive lines and from what I have seen from both teams (I even went back and looked at their games I had TiVo'd) Bama has just enough of an edge in line play to make the difference. HOWEVER, I will not be surprised at either team winning this game - either way it will be close and it will be a very tough win for either team. I am excited as hell!
Oh, one more thing. A thought about the "blackout" and all the hype that has gone with it. It may make the fans feel good, but it will have absolutely no effect either way on the game. Both of these teams have played in big games with big crowds. Plus I can tell you that, as a former player, once that first snap takes place and that first contact happens, all you are focused on is the man in front of you. Players of the caliber as these two teams learned long ago how to tune out the background noise and take care of the business in front of them. So while it looks good on TV and gives the airhead announcers something to gab about, it won't be a factor in the outcome.
Ok guys, now it is your turn to take your shots. But please, none of the crappy rhetoric of "oh yeah, we'll will beat their ****!" Bring some facts. Bring some substance to your position. SEC fans are supposed to be the most knowledgeable fans in the country so lets show it.
To all fans, of all teams: Enjoy the weekend. I wish your teams good luck. And let's all show some class and sportsmanship.
Damaris Lewis
Tori Praver
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Heisman Moments: Closest Finishes
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Even Floridas wins over Miami and Tennessee pale in comparison to what Alabama has done so far. In fact now that E.Carolina has lost, I cannot think of a team that has been more impressive than Bama. Even the lay down win against Tulane has turned out to be a lot different than what everyone thought. Tulane is a good, tough football team. I know Glen was outstanding last week, but Ingram is a mirror image of Moreno and even though he's only a freshman, to me looks every bit as good already. I think Bamas O and D lines can dominate anyone when they put their minds to it. If Bama has to turn loose Julio and Marquis and JPW is on - based on last years game, Bama could actually blow Georgia out. You talked about Moreno having power from the 'I'. You surely don't think that will make any difference when he runs into Cody do you. Remember Bamas' 6 losses last year were each by a touchdown or less and that included Georgia. You do realize just how close that was to being undefeated and that team wasn't even a shadow of this one. If Bama pounds Georgia and remains healthy, the rest of the SEC can pack it up - we'll be in Miami the first week of January.
BamaInMexico
Laredo , TX
Total Comments (3)
every week i watch at least 10-20 football games and look to see who's gonna be the teams and players in the lime light. i am a die hard Alabama fan and i'll never lose faith in that Crimson Tide. As ive watched the alabama games this year i get excited not because we're doing good so far, because we really haven't played anyone worth while except maybe clemson, which had no reason coming off a loss to auburn in the bowl last year that also lost to south florida and mississippi state to get a ranking in the top 10, now dont get me wrong SF and MSU were good teams last year but top notch SEC teams are supposed o breeze through those, especially when they boast the best team and use excuses for bad calls and unfair polls for their despair. im not just dissing auburn because im an alabama fan. i do recall us blowing a game to mississippi state and UL Monroe and also almost giving up wins to ole miss and houston while just previously giving the reigning national champs a run for their money and blowing out tennessee, we finished 7-6 so we had nothing to brag about but neither do they. i apologizefor the rant on auburn but back to me being excited not because we're doing good now but because of what can be accomplished with these players in their upcoming prime playtime in the following years. Now to Alabama vs. Georgia. JP has not been a power passer at all this season so far but he reall hasnt gotten the oppurtunity or been made to pass to win. with Jim McElwain as the coordinator he sees whats working and literally "runs" with it as we have done every game so far. We will be able to run the ball against georgia but most likely not to the extent of what we have. the passing game is just waiting to explode. with the plays we saw out of fresno state with their offense imagine what the number one recruit, a host of good reliable receivers, except for maze #4 i dont know how he'll turn out, and a senior quarterback on the way to completely rewriting the record books again for alabama. i cant wait to see what'll happen. Knowshon moreno will not have a bad game but he wont have a good one, when he tries to climb mt. cody he is sure to fail. he will be forced to run a different style of run game and i truly think if they're gonna boast about holding little arizona state's running game to 4 yards then they should remember us holding the supposed best two running backs in the nation to no yards at all. finally if they think wearing black will scare us they need to realize that we're not auburn for one thing and we hate orange not black, and with the white out we're setting up and the black out with the dawgs we might as well play at foot locker. Roll Tide!!!
BamaFan64
Pell City , AL
Total Comments (7)
alabama will win 38-17. we'll see a mirror image of the clemson game with the exception of we'll have a few more explosive plays in the passing game and georgia will have a little more fight than clemson. make no mistake though, alabama will hammer the running game at georgia. we may not get a bunch 80 yd runs but we'll get the 4+ yds a carry average all day long runningout the clock. i think it'll be a closer game than the score indicates but bama still wins big. every time georgia closes the gap bama will respond. georgia is pretty much the same team as last year and bama is much better than they were a year ago. believe it!!!
zynmaster
Adamsville , AL
Total Comments (3)
While Bama is an improved team from last year, they've yet to play anyone other than Clemson, which of course is a perennial disappointment and failure.
Maybe next year guys, but this weekend starts showing Bama for what it is......a second-tier SEC team with flashes of a real football team here and there. Auburn is still the best football team in the state of Alabama and will have yet another finger to show you after the Iron Bowl.
beejon
Total Comments (2)
LOL, sounds like another pissed off LSU fan. Hey, I picked you guys to win!
Remember what I said in the original post. None of the neanderthal posts. If you have an opinion, support it. Don't just result to stupid "oh, yeah, well..."
BTW, 4-0, #8 ranking, yeah, if that is a definition of second tier, then I can live with that.
BruceS1G
Pelham , AL
Total Comments (5499)
hey beejon youre an idiot when we beat the crap out of you this year if you can count your fingers look and see which one we'll start counting with and we're gonna shove it in your face but it shouldnt make you mad that we give you the finger , just look at it as hommage to all of auburns national championships!
BamaFan64
Pell City , AL
Total Comments (7)
Gentlemen, we`re here to talk about the Ga. game,so please,we`ll get to Auburn when we get to Auburn.To have a great year we`re gonna have to beat some great teams.I agree with Bruce,there are alot of unknowns for both teams.For us to win this game, we`re gonna have to have more than one playmaker.We cannot lay this game at JPW`s feet.The only thing I can use as a barometer is that deep down,I am really looking forward to this game instead of being apprehensive like I was last year.All I can say for sure is this time next week we`ll know alot more about where our team is at than we do right now.But I honestly think we`ll win.The fact that this game is so important and is getting so much attention shows how far we`ve come already.Give `em HELL Alabama.
bpcarman
Mobile, AL
Total Comments (4756)
I will give Bama their props this year as they have started out really well. The beating they put on Clemson was impressive, except for one thing for me personally. Yeah Bama shut down the Clemson running game, but that isn't hard to do when Bowden calls only 10 running plays between the two of them. So I am not sure whether it was Bama that stopped Clemson's running game or if it wasn't Bowden that stopped Clemson running game. I just can't imagine being a head coach with two of the best backs in the country only giving them the ball 10 times total.
Then only scoring 1 touchdown on offense against Tulane should also be troubling. I won't even get into Western Carolina/Kentucky whichever Western it was. The Arkansas game was a pretty nice beatdown though, but I think it really goes to show how little talent Nutt left when he resigned as the Arkansas coach. He knew what this season was going to be like and couldn't get out of town fast enough. Especially in the West.
I don't have a prediction yet for the UGA game because they havn't really impressed me at so far. Yeah they wipped Ga Southern and Central Michigan wow I think damn near any team in the SEC could have hung the scores UGA did against those two teams. Arizona St wasn't that impressive either considering that is a big time passing team they held to single digit rushing. That to me is about the same as holding the Naval Academy to single digit yards passing when they run the ball 55 times a game. In other word not that impressive.
For Bama to win though they have to have a very good game from Wilson. I would say something along the lines of 20-22 attempts with at least 15-17 completions. Regardless of the yardage total. That is just so it will keep UGA from stacking the box with 8 to stop Coffee. Alabama always plays very good to great d. So Richt and company have to find a way to use Alabama's aggresiveness against them. I would look for a lot of roll outs and screen passes for UGA's offense to work well. Play action isn't going to cut it. I am going to predict a score but not a winner as I feel it could probably go either way. Score 21-17.
wildbill21475
East, TN
Total Comments (4886)
I agree with you on every game...FL, TX, Auburn, KY, SC, LSU, AL. I think this is the biggest game Georgia has played in a couple years (with Florida's schedule, Georgia could beat Florida and still lose the East if they lose this game and at LSU), but I think Alabama's up for it. We shall see.
competitionisgood
Total Comments (15)
I agree on all but the last pick, but then again I can't blame you for picking your own team. In fact, it is a fairly legitimate argument based on both teams line play to date. The flaw in the logic however is that last year's overtime Georgia/Bama game was back when the Dawgs were in a slump and Moreno had not yet emerged. Since the mid-season win over Florida, Georgia has looked like a different team (this year's South Carolina game with-held since Spurrier just seems to still own Georgia even though he no longer owns Vandy). I'd say that it will be a close game due to the matchup of the Bama D-line against the Georgia O-line but Moreno will end up being the gamebreaker for the Dawgs.
rdf2Diego
Houston , TX
Total Comments (65)
LSU fan? He said he was going to flip you off after the Iron Bowl, clearly an Auburn fan. You know LSU will get their shot Saban long before that in Baton Rouge which is what a Bayou Bengal fan would have brought up. Please don't disrespect our fans just because you don't even recognize your own rival Auburn. The residence in LA means that he has moved since college, perhaps to persue his career.
rdf2Diego
Houston , TX
Total Comments (65)
My apologies then to any offended LSU fan. But he was a bit incoherent in his rant and I wasn't really sure where he was going. But there are a lot of fans who have a favorite team AND whoever plays Bama.
Sadly, there are idiots among all fans.
BruceS1G
Pelham , AL
Total Comments (5499)
BAMA fans need to calm down. Your great O-line, hahaha. To start with, you do realize that you beat an over-rated Clemson team. Oh and your other three wins have been over, well lets just call them cupcakes. You had 172 yards of total offense against Tulane and gave up 380. Let's just call it what it is.........The Saban/Bryant factor...........people want to think that Bama is great, but if I recall correctly this happened back in 2005 when Bama had an equally weak first four, then got by in a couple of SEC games before getting a dose of reallity from LSU and Auburn. That reallity is just going to happen a little sooner than that this year. If you think that you will be able to rush for 200 (laughable) and pass for 150 and beat Georgia, you are out of your collective minds. All of this and now I think that I am going to have to go bang my head against the wall for defending Georgia.
AUTigerfaninTX
Garland, TX
Total Comments (54)
Thank you for proving my previous point that 1. some fans have a favorite PLUS however plays Bama, and 2. that sadly there are idiots among all fans.
If I were an Auburn fan, I would have greater worries than what Alabama is doing.
BruceS1G
Pelham , AL
Total Comments (5499)
What is your point, our bigger rival now is Georgia anyway. The Bama rivalry has lost it's significance over the past few years since we have put six on you guys. I am just trying to save you guys from the disappointment that you face next week. The fact that you think Bama has an edge on UGA show how dumb you really are. UGA has proven and established itself as a top team over the past few years.....What exactly has Bama done aside from hiring a new coach? What's his name again? In case you didn't know UGA has finished in the top 10, 5 out of the last 6 years, and is the ONLY team in the SEC to have finished in the top 25 for the past 6 years. Here I go again.........if I keep doing this I am going to have to go to the hospital to get treated for a concusion.
AUTigerfaninTX
Garland, TX
Total Comments (54)
Thank you for your opinion. You will either be proven or dis-proven soon enough.
But I have to ask, if Georgia is biggest rival now, and you consider Alabama irrelevant, why are spending so much time on an obviously Bama oriented website preaching the demise of the Tide? I think perhaps it is like the old adage of whistling past the grarveyard to keep the bogeyman away - that if you wish it hard enough it will come true. So you think we have become insignificant in the scheme of SEC football? It would seem that a great number of others (writers, broadcasters, etc) think otherwise - thus our much higher ranking than Auburn. If I were an Auburn fan, I would be much more worried about Tony Franklin's offense, no quarterback, suspect running game, and Tubby's inability to win more than one SEC title in 10 years (which even Dubose matched), and the declining state of the recruiting. Instead that same old tired inferiority complex shows up (even though Auburn has won the last 6) every time that Alabama is in the national spotlight.
I guess we will see who is "dumb" Saturday night. Can I expect you to come back on here if Bama wins and apologize and admit that it was you who turned out to be "dumb"? You can believe that if Bama loses, I will be the first to admit the fault. But lets see if you can man-up if Bama wins.
BruceS1G
Pelham , AL
Total Comments (5499)
Several things:
1. An Auburn fan reading AL blog needs to get a life.
2. Tulane is not that bad and had two weeks to practice w/o classes for AL due to the hurricane. Winning by 14 with one offensive TD is better than 3-2.
3. This weekend will be interesting. I dont think JP needs to have record game or perfect stats, just no turnovers. If we controll the clock and play D it brings them to our level (they have more talent/depth). GA will be ready to play.
4. Usualy teams that rely on talented young players use trick plays in big games. Would like to see it Saturday.
Crimson02
Total Comments (412)
Another thought while I am on a roll...
I respect ANY fan of ANY team that can bring a relevant, factual argument to support their conclusions. That is why I respect Wildbill and have an AU fan on my friends list. He and I might disagree, but at least he tries to keep it intelligent and logical.
And.... how many times have I heard AU fans moan and groan about Bama fans "living in the past"? Yet the whole crux of your statement is about another team's past performance? Doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. First of all, none of the past will have a single impact on Saturday. Secondly, WAKE UP! it is a new season. Bama, Georgia, and certainly Auburn are different teams.
The truly "dumb" part of all of this is if you think I am suddenly going to 180 my pick based on your half-baked comments. I reached my conclusions based on stats, individual matchups, and team performances in key areas THIS season. You reached your conclusion based on....what? a warm fuzzy feeling? Too much caffeine, too little sleep? Crack pipe?
BruceS1G
Pelham , AL
Total Comments (5499)
these auburn fans wanna talk about how we got annhialated by LSU and Auburn because we sucked in 2005-2007 well i do recall us nearly beating them and as bruce said, no matter how good auburn does alabama will ALWAYS be in the lime light and auburn will be left behind. i mean you beat the whole SEC and went 14-0 and STILL DIDNT WIN A NATIONAL TITLE. how pathetic are yall gonna get? tony franklin's offense doesnt have a quarterback and even still when has the spread offense worked against any SEC defense? so what was ole tubby thinking when he hired him with a meager sophomore quarter back that still hasnt played a whole game? as i recall you lost to south florida remember? so why in the world would you say a tulane team that nearly won the conference USA and had 2 weeks to practice ALL DAY LONG shouldve been very easy? oh wait southern miss gave yall a decent fight for their caliber but u dont see us ragging u about it. Auburn needs to humble themselves before they will ever get a credible national title and be what they say they are. if you really wanna argue that auburn's one national title is even credible then you might wanna look and see that noone happened to have decent teams, everyone sucked. if u cant get one with a 14-0 finish then u might need a little check up on what everyone thinks of auburn.
BamaFan64
Pell City , AL
Total Comments (7)
We shall indeed see this weekend. There is a chance that Bama can get UGA, but I believe that it is a slim one. It's always fun to get you guys stirred up. By the way for the comments about sputtering offense......we only average about 30 yds of offense less per game than Bama........we have played one great and one good defense..............oh and that QB that can't get it done also has 180 yds passing more than Mr. Wilson. For Bamafan64........I never said that LSU and Auburn killed you either. I believe that the LSU score was like 6-3 and the Auburn score was 28-18 if i am not mistaken. But aside from an impressive win over what ended up being a 3 loss Florida team, you must admit that schedule was kind of weak. Oh and on the recruiting front..........we are currently tied with Ohio State for the most commitments at the moment with 25(Yes, I know verbal vs. signed, but we can only go by what we know right now)..............also we have never recruited well in the top 100, but we always manage to have good classes. Last year was an exception with our recruiting because we didn't lose alot of players due to graduation/NFL, so we didn't need alot.
AUTigerfaninTX
Garland, TX
Total Comments (54)
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