Spartan Seasons 2008: V | Beautiful Day for Football

Ho... hum... Another week, another predictable game for Michigan State. Still the same team in the large scheme of things. I move not a bit from the 8-4 regular season projection. No surprises yet, but some of the competition is changing its stripes.

@Indiana -- 75% chance of W (originally 65%)

More on this later, but last week I called the Ball State upset, saying Indiana would have trouble beating them ... let alone Michigan State. What DID surprise me was the magnitude of the upset. So, the odds of beating Indiana go up significantly.

Iowa -- 65% chance of W (originally 60%)

They lost to Pitt. Pitt was a clear fraud before the season began.

@Northwestern -- 75% chance of W (originally 60%)

No really new information this week. This is a very weak 4-0 football team.

Ohio State -- 40% chance of W (originally 30%)

I didn't move this from last week because I still believe Michigan State will not beat these guys. But still, every week Ohio State does something to make you think they are not what you thought they were.

@Michigan -- 60% chance of W (originally a toss up)

They didn't play this week. I still think they'll put up a tougher fight than Notre Dame. They will be hungry for it. It's at home. It's a rivalry. I could easily move this back to "toss up" if they hang tough with Wisconsin. The only thing I am sure about with Michigan is that their offensive line is bad. The rest could improve a lot without warning. Bottom line is they are a 6 or 7 win team, but I'm not sure where those wins happen.

Wisconsin -- 45% chance of W (originally 45% chance of win)

I think Penn State is the best team in the conference, but these guys and Ohio State are a close second. Michigan State beating them would be a season altering upset and I don't expect it to happen.

Purdue -- 60% chance of W (originally 65%)

More may be known after they play Notre Dame this week. Notre Dame is not good, but if they are good enough to beat Purdue then my original projection is sound. I had originally expected Purdue to be one of the worst teams in the conference and for them to get beat by CMU. The "beat by CMU" thing almost happened, but ultimately it did not. I still think MSU beats Purdue, but the Boilers are starting to convince me. A little bit. We'll see what happens against Notre Dame.

@Penn State -- 30% chance of W (originally same)

Nothing changes this estimate from week to week. The game clock appears to be the only thing that stops Penn State's offense. This will be a long day to end the season for MSU.

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