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With Portland's preseason starting tonight, I make my predictions for the squad.

First, many fanatics in Portland are calling for 55 wins and a deep playoff run.  While I love my Blazers, I know that people who expect that are setting themselves up for disappointment.  However, for this franchise that has been through Hell the past five years or so, this year will almost make it feel worth it.  Almost.

Players:

Point Guard:

Steve Blake- 8 ppg, 5 apg, 3.5 ast/to ratio.

Much like Derek Fisher with the Lakers or Rajon Rondo with the Celtics, Blake doesn't have to be a superstar on this team in order for the team to win.  He makes good decisions (7th in ast/to ratio last year) and can shoot the ball over 40% from downtown.  He'll start at PG until Jerryd Bayless is ready to take over, and that won't happen this season.

Jerryd Bayless- 10 ppg, 4 apgn, 3 rpg

Will essentially fill in Jarret Jack's old spot.  He can be a major catalyst and get to the line, but can also make maddeningly bonehead plays out of simple ones.  There will be plenty of growing pains for him as he adjusts from shooting guard to point guard and he may never fully make the transition.  For this year he will be one of the top men off the bench and spark some runs, but will not start unless Blake is hurt.

Sergio Rodriguez- 3 ppg, 2 apg, 40% from the floor

I'm not buying that Sergio's jumper has vastly improved this offseason.  For one, he only shot 3-8 in the team's first scrimmage and for two, his Spanish National team cut him.  I'd think if he'd improved he would have remained on the team.  He's shown flashes of passing brilliance and is a competent ball handler, but can't shoot for the life of him.  Will only see garbage time or emergency minutes and will not be a Blazer next year.

Shooting Guard

Brandon Roy- 18 ppg, 6 rpg, 6 apg

Roy is the heart and soul of this team and will once again be the leader on and off the court for this young squad as one of its senior members (at the ripe old age of 24) and only active All-Star.  Though Lamarcus Aldridge will pass him as the team's top offensive weapon, Roy will still be the primary ball handler once the team is set in the half court, and expect him to slide over to the point during crucial moments in the game.  Is also a competent if not shutdown defender.

Rudy Fernandez- 15 ppg, 4.5 apg, 40% from three

I wasn't high on Rudy until I saw his Olympic perfomances, especially in the gold medal game.  He has developed his deep shot and will make the Blazers forget about James Jones.  Rudy will  supplant Travis Outlaw as the first option off the bench and be in the running for both rookie of the year and 6th man of the year.  He is also a much better passer than advertised and may see some simultaneous floor time with Roy.

Small Forward

Martell Webster- 9 ppg, 3 rpg, 40% from three

With a lot of the offensive touches going to Roy, Aldridge, and Oden there won't be much left for anyone else.  However, Webster is the only reliable spot up shooter at SF for this team and should get the nod over Outlaw as the starter for that reason.  Though he won't shoot more than eight times a game, his deep ball spreads out the defense and allows Roy room to penetrate and can knock down shots if opponents double Aldridge or Oden down low.

Travis Outlaw- 12 ppg, 4 rpg

If there is going to be a problem or a disappointment on this team, it will be Outlaw.  Though he is a gifted scorer, he does little else and has been quoted as wanting to be like Carmelo Anthony.  What the Blazers need out of him is rebounding and perimeter defense, two things he has the physical tools to excel at and two things he has shunned to this point.  He will still be a valuable scoring boost off the bench, but don't be surprised if he is shipped away at the trading deadling along with Raef Lafrenz and perhaps Channing Frye if Portland is in contention and needs a veteran or a perimeter defender.

Nicholas Batum- NBDL

This 19-year-old rookie from France is about as polished as President Bush's Iraq Exit Strategy.  In other words; he's a project.  Expected to be groomed as a defensive stopper, which he's shown the ability to do, Batum may not see any minutes this year and probably won't be a major contributor for the next three years or so.  Then again, that's what they said about Lamarcus Aldridge.

Power Forward

Lamarcus Aldridge- 19 ppg, 9 rpg, 1.5 bpg

Aldridge took some major steps last year under a lot of pressure.  Portland drafted Greg Oden to star down low and expected Aldridge to complement him, and also placed enough trust in Aldridge to trade away leading scorer and rebounder Zach Randolph. Then Oden goes down and Aldridge is the only viable option offensively in the post. Aldridge responded with a pleasently surprising 17.8 ppg and 7.6 rpg.  He's only gotten bigger (still could add weight though) and more confident down low (though still drifts to the perimeter too often) during the offseason.  With Oden taking some pressure off in the post, Aldridge will become Portland's main offensive weapon.

Channing Frye- 6.5 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 2 apg

Though Frye showed a lot of promise at the end of last year when Joel Pryzbilla went down with a broken hand (17 ppg, 11 rpg in Portland's last five games), he is basically a poor man's version of Aldridge.  He isn't a bruiser down low and drifts to the perimeter a lot.  If he can play with the tenacity he did at the end of last season, he'll be huge off the bench.  If he reverts to playing soft, he may be traded for someone willing to get dirty down low.

Ike Diogu- 4 ppg, 3 rpg

Actually will play an important role as the backup PF while Frye heals from surgery to remove bone spurs.  Once Frye returns, however, he'll probably only see garbage time and emergency minutes. 

Center

Greg Oden- 11 ppg, 11 rpg, 2.5 bpg

Oden, Oden, Oden.  What do we make of him?  There's no denying his physical assets or knack for rebounding and defense.  On the other hand, he has shown to be injury prone and is very raw offensively.  At this point it seems he is more project than product and will likely see the bench a lot, both due to fatigue and foul trouble. Most of his points will be off lobs and putbacks, but his major impact will be on defense.  With the team Portland has built, they don't need him to carry the team for any stretch of time.  Instead, he will slowly hone his offensive skills while relying on his God-given gifts to anchor the defense and rebounding department while contending for rookie of the year.  He's in the fortunate situation of being able to develop slowly, and Portland is smart enough to take advantage.

Joel Pryzbilla- 3 ppg, 6.5 rpg. 1.5 bpg

Sort of a homeless man's Greg Oden.  Pryz is a very good rebounder (grabbed a franchise record 26 in a game last year) and post defender but utterly inept offensively.  If there was a stat for most missed five footers, Joel would far and away lead the league.  Still, he will be huge to this team as Oden fights through typical rookie growing pains and should see significant floor time.  There's even talk of putting him AND Oden on the floor at the same time, which means poor post offense but also would make scoring around the rim for the other team a huge problem.

Raef Lafrenz- IR

Not expected to play this year, but his major contribution to the Blazers is his contract anyway.  He is either a massive trading chip should trade whiz Kevin Pritchard want to make a move at the deadline, or $12.5 million off the books next offseason to be used for either a quality free agent or locking up Roy, Aldridge, et al. long term.

Strengths

Depth-

Portland is one of the few teams that is two deep literally at every position.  What's more the bench is versatile.  Bayless can play the 1 and the 2, Rudy the 2 and the 3, Outlaw the 3 and the 4, and Frye the 4 and the 5.  There are countless combinations at coach Nate McMillan's disposal.

Youth-

One of the youngest teams in history with an average age just of 24, there is nobody on this team breaking down due to age and nobody looking to score that one final contract.  These kids just want to win.

Big Three-

Though nobody will mistake Roy, Aldridge, and Oden for Pierce, Allen, and Garnett, Portland has a very skilled core.  Roy is already and All-Star, Aldridge is on his way, and Oden is a former #1 pick.

Flexibility-

Despite having the most talented young roster in the game, due to some deft transactions by Gm Kevin Pritchard the Blazers have a ton of cap space and tradable assets that they can part with.  Should this team need to make on move at the deadline, they have the cap room, the pieces, and the roster space to do it.

Weaknesses

Depth-

Yep, also a weakness.   There are enough skilled players one this team that someone isn't going to get the minutes/shots he wants.  Outlaw has already alluded to wanting to start and knowing it won't happen, and players like Bayless and Rudy will also demand looks.  McMillan will have to perform a major juggling act to satisfy everyone, or some players are going to have to just be unsatisfied.

Youth-

Also a weakness.  Everything is enhanced with a young team, both good and bad.  When things are going well, they go better with a young team.  Case in point, Portland's 13 game winning streak last year.  However, when thing are going poorly, there isn't anyone who's been-there-done-that on this team to snap them out of it.  A lot of this falls again on coach McMillan to keep his kids focused.

Injuries-

Oden is coming off microfracure surgery, Roy has a nagging heel problem, Frye is out with bone spurs, and Lafrenz is out for the year with shoulder surgery.  While most rotation players are expected to be ready by the start of the season, this team has a habit of getting bit by the injury bug.

The West-

Even if Portland has an eight game improvement and posts 49 wins, they still play in the Western Conference where 49 wins meant the lottery last year.  This team can't let up for a single game if they want to make the playoffs.

Predictions

- Either Roy or Aldridge will be an All-Star, though likely not both due to the massive amounts of talent in the West.

- Pritchard will win an overdue Executive of the Year Award for simultaneously stripping away the Jail Blazer image and building a winner.

- Both Rudy and Oden will be serious contenders for Rookie of the Year, but the award will ultimately go to Miami's Michael Beasley.  Rudy will also be runner up in the 6th man award to Manu Ginobili.

- Outlaw, Frye, and Lafrenz will be traded before the deadline for some veteran help and perimeter defense

Record

47-35, 7th seed in the West.  Lose in six game to the Spurs in the first round.