FanNation - The Republic of Sport

Steve Caimano wrote a very persuasive article urging Ron Santo???s election to the Hall of Fame. I???ve always sat on the fence regarding Santo???s selection; Steve almost has me convinced. I???d like to offer the counterarguments ??? in part because it???s my nature, in part to see if I can persuade myself to support Santo. If my logic proves weaker than Steve???s, I???ll happily switch sides. So, here it goes ??? perhaps Ron Santo shouldn???t be elected to the Hall of Fame. First there is the matter of the statistics. Ron Santo???s supporters frequently point out that his numbers ??? while good ??? were also suppressed by playing in the pitcher-dominated 1960s. This is correct; no one knowledgeable on the subject is going to deny that the 1960s were an awful decade to be a hitter. However, fewer fans address how dramatically Santo???s performance was inflated by playing in Wrigley Field. The numbers that have always led me to doubt Santo???s candidacy are simple ??? 216 home runs at home (212 in Wrigley), 126 on the road. After Wrigley Field, Santo???s next favorite home run venue was Cincinnati???s Crosley Field, where he hit just 16 home runs. We should also add that Santo hit .296 at home but only .257 on the road. Slugging percentage? .522 at home, .406 on the road. OPS? The numbers are .905 and .747. For perspective, Santo???s tOPS+ home/road imbalance (118/82) is similar to Colorado???s Todd Helton (121/79). We???re critical of numbers that come out of Coors Field or Citizens Bank Park today; we???re sophisticated enough not to take those numbers at face value ??? but with Santo we lose our bearings. Most hitters are more successful at home so it???s misleading to simply double Santo???s numbers to neutralize the Wrigley effect. Nevertheless, if we use shorthand and do so, Santo hits 252 home runs. Does a player with 252 home runs, a .257 average and a .406 slugging percentage get elected to the Hall of Fame? Even if we give Santo a more realistic home park advantage, would that be enough? The success of Ron Santo???s election depends too heavily on Wrigley Field. Regardless of home park advantages, was Santo the best third baseman in the National League while active and if so, for how long? Steve Caimano considers him a lesser offensive force than Dick Allen but adds that Allen was nowhere near the defensive player that Santo was. True, Allen was such a good third baseman the Phillies moved him to left field and finally to first base. Who else was Santo superior to? Eddie Mathews was better than Santo but was winding down his career when Santo peaked. Who???s left? The best N.L. third basemen between 1963 and 1968 wee Ken Boyer, Jim Ray Hart (like Allen ??? all hit, no field), Bob Aspromonte, Bob Bailey, Mike Shannon (a converted outfielder) and a young Tony Perez (who would, as we all know, move to first base). Only Ken Boyer could be described as an excellent player in this six-year period. Boyer, like Santo, won five Gold Gloves; Santo???s OPS+ is higher 125 to 116. Is being marginally better than Ken Boyer enough to get elected to the Hall of Fame? Would Santo stand out if he had played ten years later after a flood of top-notch third basemen reached the major leagues? Then he would have competed against George Brett, Mike Schmidt, Sal Bando, Darrell Evans, Graig Nettles, Bill Madlock, Buddy Bell, Ron Cey and Pete Rose. Ron Santo stands out, in part, because there wasn???t much competition. Steve Caimano argues, convincingly, that Ron Santo was fifth behind Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Frank Robinson and Roberto Clemente in 1960s Win Shares. This is a strong argument, Santo did collect 247 Win Shares in the 1960s ??? and zero in the 1950s and 75 in the 1970s. Santo???s position as fifth highest Win Share holder in the 1960s is greatly aided by the fact that his career centered on the 1960s; many players with greater Win Shares divided their careers more evenly between decades. More, Santo is fifth ??? but not by much. Right after him there???s a cluster of players with similar Win Share totals in the 1960s. Who???s a better match for Santo (247 1960s Wins Shares, 322 in his career) ??? Aaron (340, 641), Mays (337, 641), Robinson (307, 520), Clemente (260, 375) or Norm Cash (229, 311) and Vada Pinson (224, 321)? Santo???s closer to Cash and Pinson than he is to Aaron, Mays, Robinson and Clemente. Of course, Santo was a good third baseman. So were Graig Nettles (322 career Win Shares) and Darrell Evans (364). Nettles and Evans both played in the post-season; Nettles brilliantly. Another problem is the Cub Factor ??? Ron Santo never played in the post-season. Santo is usually given a pass because he???s not responsible for the Cubs??? failures. We need to pause here. Santo didn???t play alongside loveable losers. He played with Hall of Famers Ernie Banks, Billy Williams and Ferguson Jenkins. The supporting cast wasn???t so bad, either. Santo played with defensive wizard Don Kessinger for nearly a decade; at second base he played with four-time All-Star Glenn Beckert. Randy Hundley was behind the plate. Besides Jenkins, the Cubs had Ken Holtzman and Bill Hands on the mound and occasionally added a Milt Pappas, Dick Ellsworth or Bob Buhl. This wasn???t a bad team. Yet the Cubs never won. They never won a World Series, a pennant or a division title. In fact, the Cubs didn???t even have a winning record; they were 1,052-1,104 in games Santo played in. Santo???s September/October performance was weak. His September/October batting average, slugging percentage and OPS (.252, .411, .756) were easily the lowest for any month(s) of the season. The larger question is how many Hall of Famers can be justified on an unsuccessful team. The Los Angeles Dodgers of the 1960s claim two Hall of Famers ??? Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale (a third, Don Sutton, could be added ??? his rookie season was with the 1966 pennant winners). The Dodgers won three pennants and two World Series in the 1960s. The St. Louis Cardinals boast two Hall of Famers ??? Lou Brock and Bob Gibson ??? during the same era (we can stretch it to four by adding a young Steve Carlton and an aging Orlando Cepeda). The Cardinals also won three pennants and two World Series. We???re to believe that the Cubs had four Hall of Famers yet lost more games than they won? Greatness is about winning. The Hall of Fame should first honor great players on winning teams; Ron Santo was a very good player on a losing club that already claims three Hall of Famers. Adding Ron Santo would give his Cub teams more Hall of Famers than the Big Red Machine, more than the three-time (1972-1974) World Champion A???s, more than the 1990s Yankees will probably be able to command when the dust settles. Doesn???t this seem a bit odd to anyone? In 1980 Ron Santo was named on only 3.9% of the ballots cast by Hall of Fame voters. Slowly, the BBWAA began to regard Santo as a legitimate Hall of Fame candidate; in 1998 Santo???s support peaked at 43.1 percent. At his best, less than half of the people who saw him play considered Ron Santo a Hall of Famer. Santo isn???t comparable to Nellie Fox who peaked at 74.7% (75%, of course, needed for election). Santo falls more in line with Maury Wills (40.6%), Tony Oliva (47.3%) and Marty Marion (40%). If the Veteran???s Committee selects him, Ron Santo won???t be the worst third basemen enshrined in Cooperstown. We???re not looking for someone who???s better than the least qualified Hall of Fame members; ideally new members improve the Hall of Fame ??? they nudge its center to the right. Ron Santo doesn???t accomplish this. If Santo is elected, it won???t upset me. It won???t thrill me, either.