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This Saturday, the Pittsburgh Panthers will travel to Annapolis, Maryland for the first time since 1987 to take on the Naval Academy Midshipmen.  Pitt seeks revenge for last year's 48-45 double overtime loss to the Midshipmen, one in a string of many close losses that prevented the Panthers from going bowling for the first time in 3 years.  Pitt enters this game 4-1, coming off one of the biggest wins in Wannstedt's tenure, a 26-21 victory over the South Florida Bulls 16 days ago, having won four straight games.

Navy, similar to Pitt, started the season slow, dropping to 1-2 following a road loss to Ball State.  At that point, their chances of playing in a sixth consecutive bowl game looked slim.  The Midshipmen have since rebounded to win three straight games, victories over Rutgers, Wake Forest, and Commander in Chief Rival Air Force to keep their bowl hopes alive and well.  The Wake Forest victory was the Middies first over a ranked opponent in over a decade.  Navy comes into Saturday with an experienced team that knows how to win, while Pitt is inexperienced and still yearning to taste consistent success. 

Pitt offense vs. Navy Defense

The Pitt offense is coming off their best all around performance of the year in the win against USF.  The sustained success of that unit is crucial for victory on Saturday.

Tailback LeSean McCoy has racked up over 100 yards in consecutive games following a slow start.  McCoy has refocused his efforts after admittedly lacking focus in the first couple of contests.  Running behind an improving offensive line has helped as well.  A much reviled unit during the first few weeks, the offensive line has rebounded nicely and has been successful in opening up holes for McCoy and protecting quarterback Bill Stull.

Stull has also shown improvement and was very effective against USF, connecting with freshman wideout Jonathan Baldwin, who showed his impact player potential in the win.  He looks to continue that success this week against a porous Navy secondary.

Navy ranks near the bottom of FBS in most defensive categories.  They are small and slow compared to Big East defenses.  That being said, they are a very well coached unit under the tutelage of defensive coordinator Buddy Green.  Green's 3-4 scheme is aggressive and Navy's defenders all will hit hard. 

Navy is led defensively by Junior linebackers Ram Vela and Clint Sovie, who are playmakers for that unit.  Nose Tackle Nate Frazier is a load up front, and will cause problems for the Pitt running game.

Pitt's offense is bigger, faster, and stronger than Navy's defense, which is not good.  PItt should dominate offensively, through the air and on the ground, much as they did last year.  The Pitt offense needs a sense of urgency, that this game is their responsibility to win.  They need to make every possession count and cannot turn the ball over if they want to come out on top.

Navy offense vs. Pitt defense

Navy's flexbone triple option offense provides for one of the most potent rushing attacks in the nation.  Under former head coach Paul Johnson and current head man Ken Niumatalolo, they have ranked in the top five in rushing every year. 

They are led by senior quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, who both coaches have described at being the best quarterback they have every had running their system.  Kaheaku-Enhada's status for Saturday is up in the air however, as he has been hampered for several weeks with leg injuries. 

If he can't go, backup Jarod Bryant will play his fourth game of the season.  While not as experienced or as talented, Bryant is still a very capable backup, and the Midshipmen attack has not suffered much with him at the helm.

Fullback Eric Kettani is a major cog in Navy's attack.  Big and stron, but yet quick and nimble, Kettani has the ability to grind out the proverbial "three yards and a cloud of dust" but given space, he can rip off yardage in a hurry.  Last season against Pitt he burned the Panther's defense for over 70 yards on one play.

If Kettani or Bryant/Kaheaku-Enhada don't have the ball, odds are it is in the hands of slot back Shun White.  Very quick and shifty, White has big play potential every time he touches the ball.  Most of his touches come by way of pitches off of the triple option, but he is very effective running toss sweeps and is also a threat in the passing game.

Navy's passing game exists only to keep the defense off balance.  If their offense is clicking, they will only throw 7-10 times per game, and every completion will probably go for a big gain.

Defensively, Pitt has a hugh challenge on their hands.  Navy is nearly imposible to stop.  The triple option offense might be the single hardest scheme to defend in the game of football.  It requires a great amount of discipline to stay with your assignment despite the misdirection caused by the option.  Scott McKillop, who has received much praise in the media this week, will need to have his usual 12-15 tackles, but that probably won't be enough.

As good as McKillop and co. are, they will struggle to stop Navy.  Navy will not turn the ball over, and will rarely punt.  Pitt has to force them into third and long to have any chance of stopping Navy's attack.  It will be considered a success if they force 2-3 punts in the game.

Special teams

Pitt's special teams have been excellent in all facets.  Kicking, Punting, retuning, and coverage units have all played very well, and I see no reason why that will change on saturday. 

If the game is close at the end, kicker Connor Lee is the best in the Big East and is about as automatic as it gets. 

Punter Dave Brytus should have an easy day, as the Pitt offense should move the ball at will.

Navy kicker Matt Harmon is a solid kicker, notching 14 field goals on the season. 

Coaching

Navy is lead by first year head coach Ken Niumatalolo, who was promoted from his previous position of offensive line coach when Paul Johnson left for Georgia Tech.  His team has harldly missed a beat and is well on their way to a sixth straight bowl berth.  He has already shown that he can handle the pressure of a big game, knocking off #18 Wake Forest and rival Air Force on the road.  He will not lose the game for Navy.

Dave Wannstedt finally appears to have found a groove at Pitt after three sub par seasons.  Navy poses a major hurdle in Pitt's path for a bowl bid.  Under Wannstedt, Pitt has a history of losing to opponents that they are favored to beat, including Navy last season.  If he can pull off a victory, it would do wonders to silence the critics.

Here are the key questions that will determine Saturday's outcome:

Will Pitt be forced to punt more than twice?

Which team will turn the ball over?
 

Can Pitt force Navy to punt at least two to three times?

Will Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada play and will he be effective?

Can Pitt's defense limit Navy's big play potential?

Navy is a major hurdle in Pitt's season.  They are a well coached football team that is experienced and determined.  I expect this game to be a back and forth shootout, much like last year's affair and whoever scores first may win this game as little defense is expected to be seen.

Pitt is faster and has better athletes and should win this game, but Wannstedt and crew need to be on upset alert and play agressive, taking advantage of their skill and talet.  Pitt has to play like a top 25 team to win on Saturday.

Pitt 38, Navy 35