No team from a conference outside the major 6 will get an invite to the National Championship game, nor should they.
I hate the attempt by the NCAA to remove a stigma from some conferences by renaming them. For this, I refer to the 6 conferences that receive an automatic invite to the BCS as the "Major 6", and the other "Div 1" as the "Other Conferences"
As luck would have it, I finished my research a few days late. Honestly - I have no desire to rub salt on BYU's wounds or those of any team from the other conferences.
Just the opposite - since expanding the BCS to include 10 teams, I would like to see 1 spot guaranteed to a team from the other conferences, negating the need for the pollsters to play games to place a team from these conferences in the top 11 with a glass ceiling. From the way they do the rankings, it is obvious the pollsters would prefer this. I believe most fans would like to see this as well.
...but placing a team from the other conferences in the title game is an entirely different story. Based on performance from 2002 to 2007, here's why they shouldn't get an invite this year or any time soon:
They Don't Have the Ponies It can be blamed on finances and facilities, program recognition, tradition, fan base, prestige, and a whole list of other reasons. The result is they can't attract the top tier ahletes.
Perusing the 2002 to 2008 recruiting classes, the highest rated recruiting classes were ranked from 41st to 53rd (scout.com). On a sliding 2 year scale, the highest average is 42nd (Houston from 02 to 03). BYU holds the highest 3 year average ranking of 47th, the best overall average of 51st, and is the only program from outside the major 6 to average every class in the top 70 (ranging from 59th to 42nd), or have 3 consecutive classes in the top 60.
This can provide BYU and a few other programs the players to be competitive against the major 6 conferences, but with over 65% of the teams from the major conferences attracting better recruits, a finish in the top 1/3 would be a special miracle year - their chances of winning a major conference are for all practical purposes zero.
They Haven't Posted the Wins to Earn a Spot Their record against the major conferences is dismal.
In 2007, the combined for 1 bowl win against the major conferences. What's worse is that these were match ups between lower teams from the major 6 against top teams from the other conferences. At times the match ups were as far apart as the next to last team from a major defeating a division champion from the other conferences.
From 2002 to 2007, their record against champions from the major 6 is 3-63.
Against 2nd place teams 2-57, with a combined record of 5-120 against the top 2 teams from the major 6 conferences.
The combined record against the top 2 in the Big East, the top 4 of conferences with divisions, and the top 3 teams in the other conferences is 14-210.
All of these are far below the average records of these teams. All of these are well below the average upset percentage if you make an apples to apples comparison on inter-conference games between the major 6. I will admit I did not recheck my numbers here, but they were so lop sided it didn't matter (if anything, the errors I made resulted in fewer losses against the major 6).
It is 1 thing to pick up an occasional victory over a team from a major conference, even a high profile win in a BCS bowl game. It is quite another to compete every week in these conferences. Actually winning a major conference is out of reach.
Why Would They Care? As it is, any win over a team from the major 6 is a big win to be deservedly celebrated. They still play quality, innovative football - many of the currently employed offensive and defensive innovations can trace their development from the high school level thru these conferences before being adopted by the major 6 and the pros as well as the coaches who developed them. In the end, why should these teams care? So what if they don't play for the title - neither do 63 teams from the major conferences... do they really want to enter that debate?
So there you have it - my case against a team from outside the major 6 playing for the title. If finishing in the top 1/3 of the major 6 conferences is a stretch, and winning is for all practical purposes out of the question, then the pollsters are well justified keeping these teams out of the title game.
As promised to a few, not once did I bother to mention Strength Of Schedule.
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Very well done Prove It. I like how you still feel one team from the "other conferences" should still get a BCS bid even after your so very compelling reasons why the other conferences are so dismal against the Major 6. Boise State vs. Oklahoma a couple seasons back is a prime example. One question. What if there are no teams from the other conferences with less than 2 losses? Would you still like to see a spot guaranteed to such a team?
norka
Bubba Spot, GA
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well done lad.....i couldn't agree more with you and your research. As far as a guaranteed spot part....the guy above me hit it. What if they do have more than 2 losses? I mean its very easy to let a 2 loss team into the BCS when they playing within the major 6 conferences...with this said if they do have 2 losses there would also be a ton other schools with 2 losses looking for a birth....i say no, don't let them in, the competition that the major 6 faced was way better than what the small D-1 schools faced.
Steveo16220 says:…
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That's a blog all its own. It wouldn't just happen, it woul happen a lot. It is a small price for the return:
-Eliminaion of poll manipulation by the pollsters to elevate a team to meet the BCS requirements. I doubt any pollsters really felt BYU was inside the top 10.
-Increased interest in the BCS bowls by fans of the other conferences.
-Increased interest in what is happening in the other conferences. The thursday night games could come to mean a lot more than a mid-week NCAAF fix.
-If USC, WVU, OU, and other can have an off week against teams from the bottom of their conference, teams from the other conferences deserve the same consideration. At present, there is no limit on the number of losses a champ from the major 6 can have.
-The pollsters aren't voting the 2nd place teams from the major 6 into the BCS (penalizing them for late season losses) (frequently in the conference championship game). They are voting in 3rd place teams. Does anyone really find a 3rd place team from a 4th major 6 conference a more intriguing match up than the best of the rest?
-Interest is what drives the revenue for NCAAF. An increased interest in the rest can increase the revenue to these sports programs from the alumni and other sources. This can alleviate or eliminate the pressure on colleges to supplement the athletic department, and improve the facilities and environment for the athletes of all sports.
The cost is nominal - a 2nd or 3rd place team from a major plays in a bowl outside the BCS.
Just 1 or 2 of these coming to pass is well worth this cost.
Prove It
Frellin Cold In, AK
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Prove It, you mention interest in your reply several times. To that I would add 'very much' to your obvious wisdom and insight about all things that you've dissected in college football. You are one of the best around here.
norka
Bubba Spot, GA
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Any time you talk about NCAA (or other) Sports, the money issue has to be addressed. In NCAAF, interest is money.
Thanks for the compliment.
Prove It
Frellin Cold In, AK
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Awww Prove It people like you!!!!
I've had a fondness for you for some time now, well that and you're an Ohio boy so I kinda have to!
Good stuff as usual buddy!
84
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if only I had taken more breaks at work and finished it a week earlier - opposite all the "BYU in the NC game" blogs and messages...
Prove It
Frellin Cold In, AK
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breaks at work are addictive, one day you find yourself taking a break from your break to do work...
84
Total Comments (7228)
Ummm,
I gotta disagree. Utah in 2004. They ran the table, but there were other teams that did as well. Had Utah done that last year they would have gone to the BCS title game. They definitely would have gotten in over two loss LSU. It will happen eventually as a the Big 12 and SEC get so competitive that it makes it virtually impossible to go undefeated.
Football From…
Waipahu , HI
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Going back that far and prediccting the what if's in the voting is a bit tough.
If I recall, neither man nor machine had Utah in the title game.
I think there was a glass ceiling even then. It could be seen this year - BYU got to around the minimal of BCS elgibility and their rise nearly came to a halt. Several other teams are close to that now and I expect similar results.
Add to that the BCS formula has been modified several times placing more control in the hands of the human voters. I do not know if it is still just discussion, but the BCS is contemplating upping the requirements for a team outside the major 6 to make the title game - requiring at least 2 games against a team from the majoir 6 conferences in adddition to the BCS ranking, etc.
I also skimmed a heading where they are defining requirements for a 7th team to be elgible for an automatic berth, or for 1 of the 6 existing to lose theirs - I suspect the requirement will be prohibitive for any change to occur unless an aspiring conference gets lots of help from the pollsters and a lot of cooperation from the major 6 scheduling games and a lot of good forune picking up some notable wins.
Prove It
Frellin Cold In, AK
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