FanNation - The Republic of Sport

Seems like every commenter and blogger who discusses college football plays this game, and thats probably one of the biggest reasons the powers that be see no need to change the BCS system.  It generates a lot of interest, passion, and analysis that a playoff system would eliminate, and maintains a distinctive flavor from all other sports with its bowl system that gives nearly half of the teams in college football a 1 game postseason.  So who, among the undefeated and one loss teams, are going to play for the National Title?  Here are the contenders and the flaws in each:

SEC:  There are three teams remaining in the SEC with a shot at the title game.  Alabama is the simplest one.  Win out, and they are in.  There should be no debate about this.  They faced Clemson and won (back when that meant something), they crushed Georgia, and if they win out, they will have beaten LSU, Auburn (in a rivalry game), and the winner of the Georgia/Florida game.  Further, they will be the undefeated, undisputed champs of the SEC.  The separation between the SEC and Big 12 and the rest of the conferences is huge this year. 

 If Alabama loses one of the games leading up to the SEC title, because the loss is so late, they may fall to the odd team out.  This isn't fair, but I can see it happening, especially if there are 2 other undefeated teams or if Oklahoma or USC gets their shortcomings together and finishes with a strong 11-1 record.  It may not be right, but if they lose to LSU or Auburn (especially after this week when LSU allowed so much offense to Georgia and Auburn lost to West Virginia), that will be seen as a bad loss, and a later bad loss than anyone else.  It would take a blowout in the SEC title game (which they would still go to) to have even the chance of impressing voters enough.

The other two teams in the SEC are Georgia and Florida.  Georgia has rebounded nicely from its loss to Bama, and looked very good this week.  I am concerned about their defensive performance.  38 points to LSU is a huge problem, no matter how they were scored.  Florida looked incredible against Kentucky.  If the winner of the Worlds Largest Cocktail Party (or whatever pc name they give it now), wins out, its hard to vote against them.  Both Georgia and Florida did play a tough OOC game (though ASU is pathetic now, like Clemson, they weren't seen that way at the time).  My opinion is the Florida Offense is humming on all cylinders now, and they will win in Jacksonville, win the SEC, and make their way into the National Title Game despite their one loss.

 Big 12:  There are four teams in the Big 12 who can make a case.  For two of them, lack of name recognition is going to be an issue, even if they deserve a spot.  If Texas Tech wins next week, and wins out, its hard to say they should not play for the title.  This offensive juggernaut appears unstoppable, and so far, no one has even come close.  Their defense is much better than a typical Tech team as well.  They beat Kansas, a ranked team, by 6 touchdowns.  As I said, if they win out, they have earned a spot.  Oklahoma State on the other hand, needs a few breaks.  They ought to get major kudos for holding Texas's amazing offense to 28.  But they won't because they are not Oklahoma.  They ought to be impressive to voters losing by only 4 to a team like Texas, going toe to toe and playing all the way to the end.  But be honest, they are Oklahoma State.  Like Tech next week, for a team that is not in the voters mind, its one and done, just like it was for my Ducks in 2001.  For Oklahoma State to go, Alabama needs to lose the SEC title, and preferably be upset before that.  The winner of Georgia/Florida needs an upset loss, then to beat Alabama in the title game.  Either Penn State or USC also needs to be upset.  It isn't fair, but it is what it is.  Lose a game when you are an Oregon, Kentucky, or Oklahoma State and no matter how much you deserve it, you probably won't play for a title.  If either Texas or Texas Tech win out, they are most likely in.  Even with the perception issue for Tech, the strength of schedule to win the Big 12 South and the title game will give them a big computer boost.  If either lose, it is probably too late to claw back in, even for Texas.  Oklahoma has a shot, but I don't think they'll win out.  While Tech is percieved as an offensive power with no defense, Oklahoma, despite phenomenal talent is the team playing that way.  They were schooled by Texas, and despite the win, they gave up 35 to one of the weaker offenses in the league today.  They will lose another game, maybe Tech, maybe Oklahoma State, maybe both of them.  Until they do, they will be in the conversation, but I will be shocked if Oklahoma has just one loss when the season ends.

 I expect that Texas will make it past Tech, but lose a game they shouldn't, maybe to A&M in the season finale, maybe at Kansas.  These are kids, after all, and after the gauntlet they have faced, a let down is almost inevitable.  On paper, the Title Game ought to be the SEC champ vs. the Big 12 champ, but I don't think it will play out that way.

Pac 10:  I am a Pac 10 guy, an Oregon guy, but a 1 loss SEC or Big 12 team has a better resume than USC this year.  SC did what they could...they scheduled OOC games against Virginia, Ohio State, and Notre Dame, all three are legitimate potential powers, but not this year.  Notre Dame is decent, but not a power.  Virginia has rebounded from a bad start, but is still just ok.  Ohio State is good, very good, but not on a top ten level....The biggest flaw is the combination of poor Pac 10 OOC performances this year and USC failing to dominate in league as much as expected.  Talentwise, they are probably the best team in the country.  Performance wise, they are somewhere in the 5-10 range.  If there is just 1 undefeated team, they may make it, but in all honesty, they shouldn't.

 ACC and Big East:  No teams worthy of discussion.

WAC, MAC, MWC, and C-USA:  Tulsa, Ball State, and Boise State have not faced strong enough competition to be considered.  Ball State has won all 8 of its games by double digits, but where is their signature win?  They haven't even played the better teams in their own league (W Mich and C Mich who are both 6-2).  They beat Northeastern, Navy, and Indiana out of conference.....Tulsa, same sort of deal.  They have played Central Arkansas and New Mexico out of conference.  They play Arkansas soon, that will tell us a bit, but not too much.  They are scoring over 55 points a game, but no one on their schedule has less than 3 losses.  Boise State at least has a signature win over Oregon, but it was greatly diminished when Oregon lost 44-10 to USC.  Still, if Oregon finishes with 9 or 10 wins and 2nd or 3rd in the Pac 10, that is a meaningful win. But thats it.  Fresno State has 2 losses, but all the other teams they will face or have faced have 3 or more.  At large BCS berth if they win out?  Probably.  Title shot?  After Hawaii's debacle, it isn't going to happen for any WAC team any time soon.  BYU was certainly impressive early, and may have been the team with the best shot until they lost.  TCU, had they beaten Oklahoma would have an outstanding win on their resume.  Of all the non BCS conferences, the MWC is the toughest, probably better than 3 of the 6 BCS conferences, at least at the top.  But Utah again lacks the signature win.  They beat a 3 loss Oregon State, but just by 3.  They went into the Big House and beat Michigan, but this Michigan has 6 losses and they only beat them by 2.  If they had beaten an undefeated TCU and/or BYU, there still would be a perceived weakness, but with both of them losing once, the luster is gone.  If there is just 1 undefeated team besides Utah, and if the champs of 2 out of the Big 10, Big 12, and SEC have 2 or more losses, and if USC continues to win by weak margins or even loses again, we may see an undefeated Utah in the title game.  But thats a lot of dominoes falling right, and even then the computers will fight it tooth and nail, as will the system. 

Big 10:  The only team in this league that belongs in the conversation is Penn State.  I saw their game tonight and despite their too conservative play calling, I think they are a legitimate top 5 team.  Like Texas though, I suspect that just because they ought to win out doesn't mean they will.  Michigan State is a good team and they may have the best offense in the league.  They will challenge Penn State.  I think going to a slightly above average Iowa team is the biggest threat though.  Iowa is their last road game, coming after a bye.  Penn State will see a couple of contenders fall away next week, hear their names in title talk, and I expect them to come out flat and struggle.  Tonight was their first challenging game, can they maintain focus over a bye week feeling good about themselves?  I expect them to squeak out a win in Iowa, when they ought to blow them out, and finish undefeated.  If there are three undefeated teams at the end, there may be controversy, but I think Texas will fall, and the title game will be Penn State vs. Florida.  Now feel free to tell me how wrong I am.